Palin Pulls Me Back

wow... i went the entire month of june without a single post. i guess that shows how busy i've really been.

but wouldn't ya know it? it took sarah palin to bring me back to the blog.

now.... i've watched a lot of press conferences over the past several years. as i dig deeper and deeper into politics, i love a good presser.

governor sanford's "i've been unfaithful to my wife" press conference will go down as, probably, the most bizarre. but palin's announcement on friday that she would not only NOT seek a second term as alaska's governor...but would step down at the end of july... well, that's polling a close second right now.

i don't want to focus too much on the rambling, mixed-metaphor announcement.... but what i now see as her future.

i'm hearing and reading a lot of people saying "don't count sarah palin out." but i'm sorry.... she's out.

she can't even claim she's a one term governor anymore... she will NOT complete her first term. and if you can't handle one term in alaska... you will NOT make it in d.c.

and we could spend some time on why she's getting out now... her lame excuse that she won't be a lame duck... well - then DON'T be a lame duck. but i think we all know that she is probably focused on 2012 and a run for president.

sorry.... but you might as well forget it.

she can spend the next three years fine-tuning her folksy bullshit persona. she can actually learn a thing or two about domestic and foreign policy... but it will always come back to "you couldn't even finish a single term as governor of fucking alaska."

and yes.... she will now be free to tour the lower 48 and she can give speech after speech and start building up her own war chest. but it won't help her.

it's true that palin is very popular among the GOP base. and some of them may buy into this bullshit, "unconventional" move. but beyond that... she came to the national stage as a joke and this makes her even more of a joke.

so let's look at 2012. first up, as always: iowa. she'll do fine in iowa. there's a boatload of evangelicals there. but, of course, she'll have to compete with huckabee to win those votes.

then there's new hampshire...home of the independents. she won't even come close.

she may then take south carolina... after all, they've elected mark sanford so they clearly like 'em crazy. but then she's done.

she does not poll over 50% with independents...who you MUST have to win. she'll remain a national joke if she continues to stay in the news when she stated part of the reason she's stepping down is for her family (and yes, the press has been harsh on her family.... but they're hard on every woman. i give you hillary clinton).

and then....we once again return to: she couldn't even complete her first term as governor of fucking alaska.

i just see this as political suicide. and maybe that's what she ultimately wants. but i do think she's done it to set up a run in 2012... OR...there's something bigger that hasn't revealed itself yet.

but i read the vanity fair article and it was damning. and as matthew dowd said on this week this morning... she can have all the natural political ability she wants... but she doesn't have the discipline to make it on the national stage.

apparently...she doesn't have the discipline to make it on the alaskan stage either.

and, really, a life without sarah palin on my t.v. every day... is a life i welcome with open arms.

R.I.P. sarah palin's political career.

e.

Delayed Post Election Coitus

my friend james sent me the above cartoon and said it reminded him of me... and sadly, i admit, i've already looked at some polls for who the GOP consider their best bet for 2012.

but the madness has to end... i understand... or, at the very least, the madness needs to take a short vacation.

however, between finalizing work and other odds and ends before a trip... not to mention taking the trip out to san francisco... i never really had a chance to dissect and revisit the 2008 election.

there were some definite high points...to begin: obama's historic victory.

did everyone notice the odd uptick in optimism around the country after obama's win? even republicans seemed cheered.....

and everywhere people were saying: "now, every parent in the united states can tell their child, 'when you grow up...you can be anything you want to be.'"

unless you're a woman, of course. sexism still rules....

i'd also like to point out that my electoral map proved correct, save missouri. so i was only off by 10 electoral votes... i'm also waiting on two senate races to see if my prediction of a net gain of 8 senate seats for the dems holds true.

i have little hope for georgia but i'm still hoping al franken can eek out a win in minnesota.

i've become a bit obsessed with the passage of prop8 out in california. i'd also like to mention that both florida and arizona passed laws banning same sex marriage and arkansas passed a law forbidding homosexuals from adopting children.

will we soon be faced with another attempt at a briggs-type law? will it be a national movement this time? will we soon seek to outlaw homosexuals from teaching again?

i mean, everyone seems so fucking frightened of the queer effect on children. fags can't marry because of the children. dykes can't adopt because of the children.

save the children!

it makes me want to shout a collective "fuck you" to everyone....

i mean, let's ignore the fact that most pedophiles are actually straight men... let's ignore the ever-growing list of straight, female teachers who are sleeping with their under-aged students.

let's try to forget that the divorce rate is around (what?) 60% in this country...

why don't the breeders of our country worry about getting their own house in order before they start accusing us of the downfall of society?

my friend james and i attended an anti-prop8 rally while in san francisco this past saturday... we were joined by 7,500 other individuals outside the SF city hall... and countless others across the nation (including some very dear friends here in houston).

i really find an overwhelming sense of anger boil up inside me whenever i think about these anti-gay measures that have passed. just when you think we're taking giant steps forward....we're smacked backwards by the hands of bigots and zealots.

and it's not just the mormon church... 70% of the large african american turnout for obama in california also voted to discriminate against homosexuals.

apparently, they can overcome but we cannot.....

and i don't mean to diminish the struggle of the african american people. fuck knows they've had it beyond horrible for centuries.... and just because obama won doesn't mean there's no longer racism or injustice and inequality for black people.

but should any "vulnerable minority" - as dan savage puts it - be marginalized by any oppressive majority? even those made up of other oppressed minorities?

i am a second class citizen.

i pay my taxes... i work... i give back... i fight and stand up for equal rights for racial minorities and women.... yet i remain a second class citizen.

where is my american dream....?

yes, there was much to cheer for on the evening of november 4, 2008.... but i still find a lingering and bile taste in my mouth two weeks later.

i've told some friends that i think the combination of the hateful passage of prop8, paired with the upcoming release of the movie milk about slain homosexual leader and activist, harvey milk, may lead to a rebirth of action and protest on behalf of equal rights for ALL americans....

i say it's time.

stop H8.

take action.

we can't afford to be silent....

we must stand up for ourselves....

it's become obvious that no one else gives two shits.

e.

Happy Election Day!

Vote!

Vote!

VOTE!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 1 Day

well, holy shit... did you ever think the day would come...? we are just one day away from choosing the next president of the united states.

yes, tomorrow is election day 2008.

we're only one day away. one day! we were SO close... but there it was. when i woke up this morning.......

the GOP is running a jeremiah wright ad in pennsylvania. and, actually, i've seen another GOP ad featuring jeremiah wright at least twice tonight on msnbc... and i think nbc.

so.....we almost made it. i mean, it was getting pretty ugly, sure. but we had avoided wright.

but the republican party never fails to sink lower and lower. they are, truly, despicable.

anyway...shame on you... and on to the polls.

realclearpolitics.com currently has an estimated 278 electoral votes for obama and 132 electoral votes for mccain. that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama with 128 toss-up votes remaining.

without toss-ups...RCP has the electoral map you see above. they predict 338 electoral votes for obama and 200 for mccain. that's a lead of 138 electoral votes for obama and that's a decisive victory.

when we look at the RCP average of recent polls....the numbers break down as follows:

obama 51.6%
mccain 44.3%

as you can see...the polls have widened again and obama is up 7.3 percentage points over mccain heading into election day. in fact, out of the 14 polls they've gathered over the past couple of days...obama stands over 50% in all but one.

now...i actually think this map is a bit safe. in this final evening before the election, i've decided not to play it safe. below is my prediction for the outcome of tomorrow's election.


okay, i admit this may be overly optimistic...but this is my prediction. it's not the 390 electoral votes predicted by the dailykos....but it's ambitious.

my numbers come out with 375 electoral votes for the obama/biden ticket and 163 electoral votes for mccain/palin.

i've moved missouri, indiana and north carolina into obama's column.

let me start by saying i know a lot of people have been saying the polls are tightening... and in some states they are...although they're not nationally.

of course, as i've been hammering home....national numbers don't mean much. it comes down to the states.

but most polls are made up of "likely voters." the scenario for "likely voters" is derived from looking at who voted in the two prior elections. i don't think those scenarios accurately depict who will be voting this year.

they don't take into account a larger african-american turn-out. or the likely turn-out of a large number of younger voters. i should also point out, speaking of younger voters, polls only contact individuals with landlines. most college students who are crazy/enthusiastic for obama will not have a landline.

this is an HUGE population which i think will FINALLY show up at the polls and they're largely being ignored in the polling data.

i also think the overwhelming disgust the democratic party feels after suffering through the past 8 years will draw an amazing (and record-breaking) turn-out at the polls.

so...let's look at these three states quickly:

RCP currently has mccain up a mere 0.5% over obama in missouri (48% mccain, 47.5% obama). consistently, however, obama has tracked higher than mccain. and in two recent polls, fox news/rasmussen and surveyUSA, mccain and obama are tied. reuters/zogby actually has obama up by 1 point.

i just think turn-out will nudge obama over the top in this bell-weather state.

north carolina also has mccain up by a mere 0.6% over obama. again...this is another state where obama has been tracking high up until just a day or two ago.

taking into account that polls almost always tighten towards the end....i just trust the prior trend of obama leading. in fact, he was leading up until yesterday.

i think it might just be an odd hiccup in the polls. i think turn-out again will be the key. it will be close...but i think democrats will be disgusted not just by eight years of bush/cheney but also the ads being run by elizabeth dole. this will help increase the democratic turn-out and push him ahead. but by very little.

and finally...indiana. i've discussed this state before (and another shout-out here to rebecca. congrats on the colts' win over the pats last night!) and i stand by my prediction that obama will win.

this is another state where obama has been tracking up.... now the polls currently have mccain up 1.4% (47.6% mccain, 46.2% obama) with PPP(D) showing obama up +1 and reuters/zogby showing mccain up +5. however, two recent polls (ARG and downs center/surveyUSA) have the race tied.

i just think looking at national polls which show a sharp increase in the numbers for obama and the general tracking of obama leading in most polls until just the past couple of days....

not to mention all the early voting in 31 states which probably doesn't reflect the current polls....

i'm just thinking tomorrow night is a good night for obama.

and i use the term "good" relatively. afterall...tomorrow night, no matter the outcome, will be a somber evening for senator obama who lost his grandmother earlier today.

this is the woman who helped raise obama and it must be incredibly sad for everyone that she will not be around to see her grandson, very possibly, make history.

tomorrow is a huge day. and i know there's been a lot of hype but this is a truly historic election.... and probably the most important election in our lifetime.

so VOTE!

and hopefully....you'll vote for:

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 2 Days

good evening, my lovelies.... please forgive the late post but the heartache had to continue today.

not only did texas lose to tech last night in the final seconds... but the texans lost today to the vikings. just not a good weekend for football. except the cowboys. they lost... that's always nice.

oh... and i'd like to take a moment to say i don't really understand why everyone gets so excited when the clocks "fall back." there seems to be a delusion out there that you get an extra hour of sleep.

um, no you don't... you just wake up an hour earlier... i didn't wake up at 8 this morning. i woke up at 7. yeah... so now i'm waiting for my normal bedtime but i've actually been up an hour longer..........

bodies become attuned to the internal clock, people.

but anyway.....on to politics. some interesting developments from realclearpolitics.com.

and people...i beg of you to visit this site. i realize all of the 24 hour news channels seem to be breaking news with montana now a toss-up and arizona now a toss-up. yeah... i know. RCP is way ahead of you.

jesus... i think i'm a bit cranky all of the sudden.

anyway.... the really interesting development is not the number of traditional red states that continue to fall out of the mccain column....but the two blue states that have been taken out of the obama column.

this morning....RCP took ohio and virginia out of the "leaning obama" column. a HUGE development.

so the electoral map...with toss-ups...looks thus:

obama 278
mccain 132

so that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama...and still over the needed number of 270. but we now have 128 electoral votes considered "toss ups."

without toss-ups...we're looking at an estimated 353 electoral votes for obama and only 185 for mccain. watching the sunday morning talk shows today...these numbers seem to be the going prediction.

now, while obama is losing points in the estimated electoral map...he is gaining points in most national polls. he currently stands 50.7% to 44.3% over mccain, or +6.4%.

i also wanted to put up the racial voting breakdown as polled by gallup. interesting numbers which might explain why obama should win come sunday.

african americans: 91% obama, 4% mccain
hispanic: 65% obama, 27% mccain
white: 44% obama, 50% mccain

with such large numbers in certain populations overwhelmingly going for obama... it's a hard road to 270 for mccain.

but let's look today at the two states taken away from obama (at least for now) and why they've been recategorized as "toss-ups."

ohio, of course, was the big story from 2004. RCP average of polls currently has obama at 48.8% and mccain at 44.6% (or +4.2 obama). now....while recent polls from la times/bloomberg has obama up 9 points (49% to mccain's 40%) and a fox news/rasmussen poll has obama up by 4 points (49% to 45%).... a new poll out today from mason-dixon shows mccain up by 2 (45% obama, 47% mccain).

that's not a tightening of the polls...that's a reversal.

now...this is only one poll, but it's enough to question where ohio might go. therefore, ohio is back in the questionable column.

in virginia we're looking at more of a tightening... RCP average still has obama up +3.8% (49.8% to mccain's 46%). and, in fact...obama still leads in all polls.

that lead has just dropped from a 6 or 7 point lead down to less than 4 points.

mason-dixon has obama up by three but the latest polls from surveyUSA, fox news/rasmussen and marist all have obama up by 4 points. in fact, surveyUSA has obama at 50% and the other two have obama coming in with 51% of the vote.

anytime you have over 50%....you're generally golden.

so, yes, mccain has closed the gap. just yesterday obama was up 51% to 45% on average. but with polls still coming in with him garnering more than 50% of the vote... i don't fret much.

my prediction.... obama snags both ohio and virginia.

some other predictions...since they did this on this week today... i agree with most that the democrats will gain a net 8 seats in the senate. this will bring their total to 59 seats... one shy of the 60 seat filibuster/veto proof majority.

i also expect a net gain of over 20 additional blue seats in the house.

races of note: watch for former SNL alum al franken to beat norm coleman in minnesota. watch for hagan to defeat dole in NC. stevens (the longest serving GOP member of the senate) should lose his seat in alaska thanks to the guilty verdicts... and the most interesting race could be if the GOP leader in the senate, mitch mcconnell of kentucky, loses his seat on tuesday to wealthy businessman bruce lunsford.

so..... while the numbers are still very fluid - i'm still optimistic looking ahead.

i'm not ready to jinx anything and i still believe in being cautious. and....for vishnu's sake... you still need to VOTE!

but... things appear to be looking good.

see you tomorrow. get some sleep.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: Days 4 & 3

my apologies, fellow politicos. yesterday was halloween and i was simply too busy thinking about chocolate and watching psycho dwarfs in red raincoats tormenting donald sutherland to post.

so today we'll tackle two states.... but let me tell you why. the last two days i have set my browser to realclearpolitics.com and noticed something odd in the electoral map.

mccain's numbers have been shrinking....

first RCP took georgia off the map. back in the toss-up column. then i looked this morning... and i had heard grumblings about this possibility. but there it was. arizona was no longer red. no longer even slightly red...

mccain's home state of arizona is back in the toss-up column.

that puts the current RCP estimate of electoral votes as obama with 311 and mccain at 132...with 95 toss-up votes. that's a net positive of 179 electoral votes for obama.

no toss-ups? 353 for obama and 185 for mccain. that's a net positive of 168 electoral votes for obama....

the national polls....again - just a reminder that they don't mean much - it's the states....

obama 50.2%
mcccain 43.6%.

again...+6.6 points for obama. that's pretty much standing steady....

oh - and just so we cover the topic. i know several people are still worried about a possible "bradley effect." and looking back over history, i understand why...

most pundits believe that an african american candidate needs to have a net positive of at least 5 points in the poll to be safe from any hidden racism.

but one of my favorite columnists...gail collins of the times...points out something beautiful in her column today. while she doesn't dismiss the fact that some people may be afraid to tell a perfect stranger over the phone they won't vote for a black candidate... would those same people go so far as to say they think obama is better for the economy, taxes, health care, etc...?

as gail says: that "seem[s] like a lot of effort to impress a stranger on the other end of a telephone line."

so...i tentatively think we can put the bradley effect to bed. at least... i hope.

anyway - back to the states.

let's begin with georgia...where i have no friends to which i should "shout out."

georgia currently stands obama 46% and mccain 49%. it's a net positive of 3 points for mccain. that's a single digit lead for a fucking republican in fucking georgia.

so...the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up +5 (52% to 47%) and the latest research2000 poll has mccain up a mere 3 points (47% to 44%).

this is a state that should go red and should hold a stronger lead for mccain. but i think african american turnout could make this an interesting race.

do i think obama could steal georgia's 15 electoral votes? i'm doubtful.... but it makes for an interesting campaign.

so arizona.... actually, another state with no connections for me.

arizona...mccain's home state....is down to a single digit lead. RCP has mccain up by a mere 3.5 points in their average of polls. mccain 49.3% to obama 45.8%.

the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up by 5 points (51% to 46%) and the research2000 poll has mccain up... are you ready for this...? by just 1 point. mccain 48%, obama 47%.

this. is. fascinating....

i really can't imagine mccain loses arizona and its 10 electoral votes. i mean... he's been a senator from there for such a long time.

but could a large hispanic vote (yes, hispanic vote) tip things for obama?

this could all really come down to turn-out. if obama...who has an amazing ground operation in almost every state...can get his supporters out in a larger number than mccain... he could just upset some states.

(was that just a john madden/painfully obvious statement...? "what needs to happen is...the green jerseys need to move the ball down the field and the white jerseys need to stop them. boom!")

anyway... i'm predicting both of these states to go red come tuesday... but i love that obama is forcing mccain to spend money in so many states that should be solidly red.

this election...i'm telling you...from the primaries all the way through tuesday... it's simply one of the most fascinating, wild, unpredictable races in recent history.

i hope you're paying attention. this one is going down in the history books.

VOTE!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 5 Days

good evening, my lovelies... let me begin by saying i no longer like this new, hot doctor on grey's anatomy. i'm sorry, but you stab four defenseless pigs and you lose me. what can i say? on the upside...izzie is finding her way back on my good side. "flipper babies" - beautiful.

but anyway, on to the polls....

the latest national polls stand as follows:

obama: 49.7%
mccain: 43.8%

so...we're looking at a net positive of 5.9% for obama... pretty much the same.

the electoral map also remains, basically, the same. with toss-ups: obama 311 to mccain's 142 (+169, obama). that leaves 85 toss up votes. without toss-ups, a slight change: obama holds a net positive of 190 votes with 364 electoral votes to mccain's 174. i believe realclearpolitics has placed indiana back in mccain's column. i'm holding out hope.

but tonight's toss-up state...with a shout-out to my lovely feminist friend, carey...is north carolina.

once again...north carolina is generally a red state. but things are looking good for the dems this season.

as prologue: let's take a quick look at the senatorial race. that daffy cunt liddy dole is in a tough race against democrat kay hagan. today's rasmussen actually has hagan up six points over dole: 52% to 46%.

dole is so desperate, as are so many republicans, that she has gone to the airwaves accusing hagan of accepting "godless money" because she attended a fundraiser and received a donation from an atheist! dole even has an actress saying "there is no god" over a picture of hagan...implying hagan has said (and believes) just that.

well, hagan has hit back saying she doesn't want to focus on such nonsense when she knows she's a good christian woman and the people of north carolina want to talk about jobs and the economy. and she ends the ad by saying she approves the message because she doesn't believe is "baring false witness against a fellow christian."

oh, snap!

it's a beautiful retort and much stronger than the pathetic initial ad my dole. but it highlights the trouble republicans are having maintaining their hold on this once reliable red state.

the latest polls out of north carolina have obama at 49% and mccain at 46%. that's a mere 3 point lead for obama.... out of an average of several polls. so let's look at the polls:

the latest rasmussen has obama up by 2. the cnn/time poll has obama with a net 6 points over mccain. reuters/zogby have obama up by 4 and the AP has obama up by just 2 points.

an nbc/mason-dixon poll from the 22nd is the last poll that gave mccain any good news at all in north carolina...and that was a tie.

charlie cook likes to say take the difference between the high and low and you generally see where the polls really stand... that comes out to the RCP average of 3 points for obama.

what i'm trying to say is....it appears next tuesday should be a good night for the dems in north carolina.

my prediction: obama wins north carolina and its 15 electoral points.

bonus prediction: kay hagan mops the floor with elizabeth dole.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 6 Days

well, not long ago barack obama debuted his 30-minute campaign ad on most of the major networks. (actually - all major networks except ABC, which if fine because i was able to DVR my pushing daisies.)

i was worried about the "infomercial" but i thought it was very powerful. moving and informative... just beautifully produced.... well done, sir.

but let's look at numbers... six days out.

first, the general numbers: the national polls have tightened slightly with obama up 6 points over mccain...49.9% to 43.9%. however....realclearpolitics.com now has the electoral map favoring obama even more:

w/ toss-ups: obama 311, mccain 142 (obama +169)
no toss-ups: obama 375, mccain 163 (obama +212)

now....there aren't many toss-up states left. obama's lead in colorado has increased to double-digits and is now in the obama column. new hampshire is solidly obama.

but which states are still toss-ups? well....let's focus tonight on indiana (and at this point i give a shout-out to my colts-lovin' friend rebecca).

indiana is a neighboring state of illinois which everyone thought would go to obama throughout the primaries... it's also been a solidly red state since the 80's.

but wait...

realclearpolitics has their latest average of indiana polls thus:

obama: 47.4%
mccain: 46%

that's a net positive of just 1.4% for obama. however...just a week ago, the average on 10/21, had mccain up 48.8% to 45%.

so what's changed...? and is 1.4% enough to guarantee a blue indiana?

i think indiana truly remains a toss-up state... perhaps the last toss-up in the midwest where all the other states are turning a darker shade of blue.

it's a red state, true, but the midwest is being hit hard by the economy which all polls show favors obama.

so let's look inside the numbers. the most recent poll out by reuters has mccain up +10. but the big 10 battleground poll has obama up +10. and research 2000 has obama up by just 1 point.

so we have a net positive of 1.4% for obama....

indiana has 11 electoral votes... 11 votes will not do much to help mccain win the election in 6 days.

so....does indiana matter? it may not... obama can win without the state. mccain can still lose with it.

but it would be nice to see obama sweep the midwest and turn another red state blue.

i'm gonna make a call and say indiana goes blue on november 4th.

and we'll know if i'm right in just 6 days....

stay tuned for another state tomorrow. and if you have early voting....get out there and vote!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 7 Days

it's hard to believe that the campaign of the past TWO YEARS is quickly coming to an end.

first it appeared hillary clinton looked inevitable. then obama won iowa and he was inevitable. then hillary came back and won new hampshire and it was anybody's game until obama finally wrapped up the nomination after a very long primary fight.

mccain was dead two summers ago before he rose up from the pits of hell to snag the GOP nomination.

would hillary be obama's running mate....?

who the fuck is this sarah palin....?

as each question was answered, two or three more would appear...

but here we are. just one week away from knowing who the next president of the united states will be. and things seem to be coming into focus.

the brilliant charlie cook (who is one of the best political minds out there) probably put it best this weekend when he wrote:

For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.

the numbers we've seen over the past couple of months is just the type of surge obama can get behind. and i'd like to spend the next week looking closely at the numbers, possibly focusing on a specific state that remains "in play" each day.

but for today... i'd like to focus on just the big numbers. drawing information consistently from realclearpolitics.com, the race currently stands thus:

obama 50.6%
mccain 43.6%

that's a 7% lead for obama. but as we've all learned from 2000...the popular vote means shit when choosing the next POTUS.

so how does the electoral map look...?

realclearpolitics currently has a definitive 306 electoral votes for obama and 157 for mccain. that's a net positive of 149 electoral votes for obama. but remember: you only need 270 electoral votes to become president.

so does that mean obama wins....? look back at cook's quote.... the answer almost has to be yes, right? i mean...those are numbers WITH toss-up states. let's take out the toss-up states and you see why cook says we're looking at an impressive trajectory.

without toss-up states, obama has 375 electoral votes to mccain's 163... that's a net positive of 212 electoral votes!

that's the upper deck, my friends (to steal a phrase from mccain).

so does obama win? can anything snatch this democratic slam dunk (to mix metaphors) from the jaws of victory? should we still fear a bradley effect?

in the coming days.... we'll focus on other issues playing into the november 4th election and focus in on a few key states.

but, my fellow dems....it's lookin' good.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Don't Label Sarah Palin

so i'm watching the second installment of the brian williams interview with the cryptkeeper and sarah palin last night and i was struck by a specific exchange:

williams: "governor, are you a feminist?"

palin: "well, ya know gosh darn it, brian... i'm not gonna label myself anything."

okay...i admit that first part was me... but she did say she wouldn't label herself anything.

really....?

how many times do you label yourself a "reformer" during your speeches, governor? how many times do you call yourself (and mccain) a "maverick"? how often do you refer to yourself as a "washington outsider" or an "average american" (who just happens to spend $150,000 in two months on clothes at neiman marcus and saks fifth avenue)?

no...you wouldn't label yourself anything...

just like you won't label an abortion clinic bomber a "domestic terrorist." afterall.... he's doing god's will, isn't he? (this exchange can also be found in last night's segment of the nbc interview.)

i realize a lot of people are kvetching about this $150,000 for clothes story saying it's not relevant... but in a discussion where a candidate paints themselves as a "fiscal conservative" and a "reformer" that knows how to cut spending and not waste tax dollars.... you've just used $150,000 of tax payer money (remember - the mccain camp is using public financing...not raising private money like obama) on clothes and accessories. $150,000! that's more than most people make in a year...

and it just highlights the constant hypocrisy in the mccain/palin ticket. the consistent flip flops:

first mccain badmouthed religious zealots...then he met with them.
first mccain was against the bush tax cuts...then he voted for them three times.
first palin was for the bridge to nowhere...then she voted against it.
first palin was for cutting government waste...but then continued to take the government stipend for housing while living in her own home.

these are not reformers. these are not mavericks. not that they would ever label themselves. i mean...they're definitely not flip-floppers.

afterall...just a month ago when katie couric asked palin "do you consider yourself a feminist?" palin answered: "i do."

but ya know... whatever.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Third Time's the Same

tonight is the last night of my mini-stay-at-home vacay. so i’ll be keeping this short and posting early because i can’t stay up all night and listen to post debate analysis. but i offer you some of my thoughts.... as they happen.

a live blog for you, my loyal readers... on this, the occasion of the final presidential debate of 2008.

the third and final debate
ah....we’re sitting this evening.

mccain begins with a shout out to nancy “just say no” reagan. then launched into: “they’re [i.e. the american people] hurting and they’re angry. that’s important so i’ll say it again. they’re hurting and they’re angry.... they’re angry.” the key word here is “angry.”

mccain is hitting this very unpopular idea of buying up home mortgages. you know.... his idea.

obama immediately starts speaking directly to the middle class. tax cuts for anyone making less than $250,000. also – access to retirement/401(k) plans without penalty.

GREAT answer to mccain’s idea for buying up foreclosures. could be a profit-making venture for the banks.

wow...look at john mccain looking directly at obama as he attacks about the plumber. this is new....

mccain...the camera is on you. stop looking so itchy.

“joe the plumber” and “we need to spread the wealth around.” i just heard these talking points on the o’reilly factor as i was momentarily humoring my older, conservative brother.

mccain needs to get less advice from o’reilly and rush and listen to smart conservative like mike murphy.

is mccain really revisiting his america vs. ireland argument?

let’s see if bob can finally get an answer about the WHAT will you cut in order to pay for these economic stimulus packages?

well, obama once again danced around the question. mccain pulled a sarah palin and decided to talk about something completely different. nope, wait... he just said he would start a spending freeze.

hmmm....mccain would eliminate subsidies on ethanol. did he just write off illinois, iowa, wisconsin and indiana?

“i’m not president bush. if you wanted to run against president bush you should have run four years ago.” a nice line from mccain. obama needs to hit him back with: “well, then you shouldn’t have voted with bush over 90% of the time.”

“record, record, record...” yes, johnny boy. we get it.

“if i sometimes mistake your policies for bush’s policies...” it’s because they’re so similar. a nice response obama.

but holy shit. mccain is really hitting hard tonight. he is on the attack.

8:25pm: bob schieffer brings up the nastiness of the campaign and will you address the negative attacks to each other.

i can’t believe mccain is really trying to blame the ugliness on obama’s unwillingness to sit down for 10 town hall style debates.

look at mccain playing the victim. poor me.... they found out i’m a racist and they called me on it. boo-hoo.

“you didn’t tell the american people the truth because you didn’t.” what?!?

there’s the answer. says obama (in a nuthshell): the american people care less about our hurt feelings and the nastiness than the real issues. that’s what they want us to talk about.

i’m so fucking happy that obama is hitting mccain on he and palin not addressing the shouts of “kill him” and “terrorist” at their rallies. they’re also yelling shit like “off with his head” and “treason.” that shit is scary. the kennedys... MLK. that is not the distance past.... this type of language is horrifying.

mccain’s lines of attacks just go so far off the beaten path sometimes.

obama’s point that we can’t paint each other as “bad people” is a nice line. and then off mccain goes on ayers and ACORN which is all such bullshit.

i love that the word “terrorist” is oh-so-slightly dropped whenever mccain brings up ayers.

obama has given some very nice, direct answers to the idiotic allegations by the mccain campaign and then gave a beautiful list of his advisors: buffett, biden, luger, jones... beautiful.

why is bob letting this debate descend into this idiotic, trivial dialogue? MOVE ON!

let’s talk about THE ISSUES!

oooooh… a biden v. palin question. this seems like a gimme for obama. “because palin is a fucking idiot!” game, obama!

the key word for palin is “reformer.” ummm....no: idiot. how can mccain really justify his stunt known as sarah palin with a straight face?

awww....the victim card again! “she understands special needs families.”

when asked if sarah is qualified to be president, obama gave the stock hillary answer: “that’ll be up to the american people.”

oh snap! obama said we need to fund more research for autism if we’re gonna take special needs research seriously. and that can’t happen if mccain wants an “across the board spending freeze.” beautiful....

“tax and spend liberal.” this week’s republican talking point.

energy and oil. mccain: “drill, baby drill.” whatever...

allow me to digress for one moment: we all know that even if we begin drilling tomorrow, it’ll take ten years to see any oil from these new offshore drilling sites. exploration, construction, drilling.... ten years. but what nobody talks about is that once shell and exxon and everyone else drills the oil – it’s not american oil. the oil belongs to the oil companies. and they don’t have to supply it to america. they’re businessmen! they will sell it to the highest bidder. if china is willing to pay more for a barrel of oil, guess what? shell sells it to china. we won’t necessarily see ANY of it.

thank vishnu that obama spoke about wind and solar energy. why not spend all that money...the time over the next ten years....to explore alternative energy?!?! why not work to end our dependence on oil?!?

mccain finds a way to add “and he’ll raise your taxes” into any conversation... no matter how irrelevant. amazing....

fuck... over 30 minutes left and i’m already bored.

hit him, obama! clarify your plan for health care and the exemption for small businesses and “joe the plumber.” nice argument about young, healthy individuals may be able to afford health insurance for $5,000. but older, less healthy individuals probably can’t afford it for only $5,000 a year.

are you listening out there in pennsylvania?!?

“joe! i want you to do the job” mccain says. yeah...but joe can’t afford it! how can anyone really be against health care for everyone?!? should we just let our citizens die?

this amazes me! and i miss hillary....

oooooh! a roe v. wade question! mccain says he thought it was wrongly decided. “i think a lot of cases were wrongly decided.” really? can you name one? because sarah can’t...

i get so annoyed with the term “litmus test.” why can we not apply a fucking litmus test? we need judges that will uphold a woman’s right to choose!

carey – are you listening? obama just said roe v. wade was rightly decided. and he upholds a woman’s right to choose (under the safe guise of “right to privacy.”)

oh! and i’m so happy obama keeps bringing up equal pay for equal work.

education: obama thinks the children are our future. just like whitney houston.

well, hell.... we’re starting to repeat ourselves. let’s move on to my quick hits for the debate.

quick hits
--cnn’s newsroom is as busy as their graphics during the debate. 12 pundits and three moderators. i find it difficult to keep up.
--i think they asked bob shieffer to moderate in hopes it’ll make john ‘the cryptkeeper’ mccain look younger.
--mccain starts writing notes as soon as he sits down. is his memory that bad he has to write down thoughts before he forgets them? and then he just writes and writes and writes.
--i heard a great argument earlier today that mccain could’ve convinced people that he wouldn’t be a third bush term if he hadn’t decided to run a third bush-style campaign. it was nice.....
--“for all intents and purposes” is an empty fucking phrase. and WAY over-used.
--fuck! i wish i’d been counting how many times mccain brought up “joe the plumber.” by 9pm CST – it’s been at least four times... but about three or four times during each time he brings him up.
--mccain’s body language is better tonight. he looked at obama. he spoke directly to obama. but he still looks like a grumpy old man.
--obama looks presidential. he looks calm. but he looked (and was) ready to fight back on mccain’s attacks.
--do you know who obama’s number one surrogate is tonight after the debate? one hillary clinton. oh yeah.....
--on the final question of the debate, why is mccain suddenly so intent on interrupting obama while he speaks?
--thanks chuck todd on nbc. joe the plumber was mentioned over 20 times by mccain.

final thoughts
my final thoughts will also reflect the candidate’s final remarks.

my older brother (the conservative) thought mccain looked more choppy tonight than he has in the past. i think he’s uncomfortable on the attack but everyone had told him that he had to attack, attack, attack. it’s too bad.

and he did come out and attack. and he hit obama hard.

but i think obama was able to answer all of his attacks. and calmly.

the closing remarks were nice. mccain spoke of his service. obama spoke about the needs of the country. i dunno....?

i find it a bit of a draw (again) tonight. boring....(again) though maybe not as boring as last time.

but again...it was a draw. mccain can’t win with a draw. a draw means obama wins. and i just didn’t see anything tonight that changed the game.

another nice analysis from chuck todd: mccain’s performance will excite his base. but both candidates have their base. what did mccain do to garner votes from the center? from independents? i just don’t see it.

and to follow-up on a statement that chucky t. made about a month or more ago: we’ll know how this race will end november 4th on october 15th. well...look at the polls. look at the electoral maps: obama is up. and he’s up well.

i haven’t brought up realclearpolitics for some time, but let me revisit my favorite website. the RCP average of national polls has obama topping mccain by 7.3 percentage points: 49.8% to 42.8%.

and if you look at RCP’s electoral map. obama has 286 electoral votes in his column to mccain’s 158. that’s obama up by 128 electoral votes. of course, you only need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency and he’s already at 286 without toss up states.

add toss ups? obama 364. mccain 174. that’s obama in a landslide of 190 electoral votes over mccain.

again.... i’m cautiously optimistic.

well, it’s almost over. the debates are over. i can’t believe it’s a mere 19 days until election day.

and i leave you tonight with bob shieffer’s mother’s sage advice: “go vote now. it’ll make you feel nice and strong.”

obama/biden 08!

e.

Fannie/Freddie Fact Check

thank you, CNN:

The Statement: At a presidential debate Tuesday, October 7 in Nashville, Tennessee, Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain said Democratic opponent Sen. Barack Obama and other Democrats resisted regulating mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which ultimately collapsed and had to be taken over by the government. "Meanwhile, they were getting all kinds of money in campaign contributions. Sen. Obama was the second-highest recipient of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac money in history — in history," he said.

The Facts: Federal law forbids candidates from receiving money directly from companies. The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics tracks donations from employees of various companies. The center's list of contributions from Fannie and Freddie employees places Obama second. Ahead of him is Sen. Chris Dodd, Democratic chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

The total listed for Obama is $126,349 — a tiny fraction of the approximately $390 million his campaign has raised, according to the center. The list shows McCain has received a total of $21,550 from Fannie and Freddie employees. The list includes donations of at least $200 from those who receive paychecks from Fannie and Freddie. It also includes donations from political action committees — pooled contributions from employees.

The report spans from 1989-2008 — just a portion of the time since Fannie Mae went private in 1968 and Freddie Mac was created in 1970.

The New York Times has published a separate list looking at contributions from "directors, officers, and lobbyists for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" for the 2008 campaign cycle. That list — using figures from the Federal Election Commission — shows McCain receiving $169,000, while Obama received only $16,000.

VERDICT: Misleading. No donations actually came from the companies. One method of measuring employee contributions does put Obama second overall, but another, for the current election cycle, shows McCain receiving significantly more.

e.

Belmont Stakes

well, it’s the second of three debates tonight between john “i’ll fight dirty after i promised to fight clean” mccain and the messiah known as barack obama. i’m thinkin’ i’ll attempt another live-blogging... but i may be moving around a lot... or just yelling at the t.v. a bit too much to get a lot down. but i’ll try.

first.... let’s say up front: i like the format. i realize this is supposed to help mccain, but i like the idea of the candidates answering questions directly from voters. and not having any distance between themselves and who may vote for them.

i also hope that tom brokaw does a better job at moderating than gwen ifill did last thursday. that was easily one of the most disappointing performances i have ever witnessed. i’m an enormous fan of ms. ifill... but the news stories circulating about her new book praising obama clearly got in her head and she let palin take over and not even answer the questions posed.

tom... keep them on point. keep them honest. don’t let them get away with “no, i want to talk about my talking points.”

also…before we go into this: what do we think about mccain’s dirty campaigning? will he bring up the smears? with obama in the room? with a live audience that may boo him?

i’m predicting no… but i guess we’ll see. it’s just bad politics and as much as i can’t stand mccain and his cronies... he must be smarter than that, right?

hmmm... can i change my answer?

debate night in america
mccain at least acknowledged obama as he entered the stage. obama is to the left. mccain is to the right. seems appropriate.

first question, not a surprise: the economy.

obama immediately pegged this current crisis on bush’s “failed policies” and included: “policies senator mccain supported.” nice... tough words against AIG execs. demands they give the money back and executives fired. again, nice...

mccain addressed obama but didn’t really look at him.

i think mccain’s “nice to see you at a town hall meeting” was meant as a subtle jab. maybe too subtle...

people want to hear about their 401(k) plans and sending their children to college... mccain is talking home prices. the question was about stocks and 401(k).

oh, nice question tom: who will you appoint to be the next treasury secretary to replace paulson?

the question clearly took mccain by surprise. he has no answer. again, tried a lame joke: “not you, tom.” obama said buffett would be a good choice but maybe not the best (but didn’t stop from reminding people warren does support him). but neither one of them gave a name.

mccain got the talking point: “not a bailout. a rescue.” um, yeah... no. it’s a bailout.

you can put lipstick on a pitbull but it’s still a hockey mom. no, wait.... is that how the saying goes?

need to fact check: is obama the second largest recipient of fannie mae and freddie mac money?

huh. mccain talked in generalities and attacked obama when asked what exactly is in the bailout package for individuals. obama came right back and said, “let me tell you what you get out of this...” but then i think he meandered and kinda answered (available credit) but then didn’t really answer... and gave his credentials on trying to stop the economic crisis.

and now he’s attacking mccain again....

come on, barack. give a definitive answer.

“we have a 20th century policy for a 21st century problem.” yes, obama. we get it. you’re the bridge for washington into the 21st century.

wow, look! mccain looked directly at and spoke directly to obama. a strong moment, actually....

okay, when asked why he should be trusted with our money...obama was direct. he spoke about need for healthcare and energy policy reform.

mccain is throwing out a lot of numbers but not giving any specifics. “record, record, record.” “pork, earmarks, pork.” “energy, energy, energy.” but can you provide any specifics? we’ve heard the talking points...

wait? did mccain just bring up terrorists when talking about priorities?

obama is, once again, being specific: energy, first. “in ten years we have to be free of middle east oil.” health care, priority number two. priority number three? education.

well played, sir.

first internet question: we’ve never been asked to sacrifice anything but our soldiers’ blood since WWII. what will you ask people to sacrifice?

mccain’s answer: cuts in washington and washington programs. and then the one example you give is a more streamlined defense budget? how is that asking any of us to sacrifice?

how about a call to volunteer? a call to donate to nonprofits?

obama started talking about a call for service. talked about how everyone needs to start thinking about the energy they use. how can we save energy in our homes and our buildings? he also talked about young people’s hunger to serve and doubling funding for the peace corps.

ah, at 8:37pm (CST) mccain brought up the spectre of “tax and spend liberals.” obama will raise taxes on small businesses.

hit back obama.... he will not raise taxes on 95% of the nation. and he won’t raise taxes on most small businesses... but he will give them tax incentives for providing health care benefits to the employees.

did mccain just blow off the idea of having to SAFELY dispose of nuclear waste? seriously?

5 million new jobs can be created by working on alternative fuels, claims obama. hillary would call those “green collar jobs.” i miss hillary.

mccain just referred to obama as “that one.” 8:49pm. why not just call him “boy”?

i’m so happy obama keeps hitting mccain on the fact that he wants to TAX healthcare. healthcare costs have never been taxed. it’s idiotic! keep hitting him on that, obama.

“medical errors” as they call them. you mean the doctors?

i think mccain is hitting obama on healthcare mandates again (sorry, i was typing). obama doesn’t have mandates. hillary had those (i miss hillary). i wish he had mandates... otherwise, we’ll never get to universal health care.

mccain believes healthcare is a “responsibility” not a “right.” obama… you better hit him on this!

good…obama says in a country as wealthy as our country, healthcare should be a right. bravo. (and amen!)

clear it up, obama. no mandates for you. no threats of making you change your plan. no mandates for small businesses but 50% tax incentives for healthcare. only mandates for children.

what was that cocky move mccain did with the mic after saying “there’s no time for on the job training, my friend”? who does he think he is? tom jones?

the obama doctrine? while we may not always have a national security issue at stake, we have a moral issue. basically, he believes we need to help stop ethnic cleansing and genocide but also acknowledges that we can’t be everywhere all the time. an honest answer.

i’m getting really tired of mccain saying “my friends.” fuck you! you’re not my friend.

the mccain doctrine? i dunno? bomb, invade? what is he saying? and did he just say we need a “cool hand” at the controls? and that would be you, mctemper?

mccain said: “your children’s safety is my first priority. after our nation’s security.” so...we’ll send your children into iraq to die and cause further hatred of our nation and endanger ourselves and our troops… which actually makes us less safe. but i’ll take care of your children? what?

mccain is keeping his cool tonight... but he’s still so smug and smarmy.

i don’t know if obama’s constant insistence on follow-ups will play well with everyone. he may come across as too pushy... or maybe even whiney. but i think it’s important for him to defend himself after mccain’s false attacks.

“i was joking with an old veteran friend,” mccain says. this when he said “bomb, bomb, bomb...bomb, bomb iran.” yeah.... funny, john. real funny.

“withdraw our troops in a responsible way” from iraq, obama says. hillary started the trend of “responsible withdrawal.” i miss hillary....

mccain just said obama is “correct” on some of his points when it comes to afghanistan. okay, obama people: mccain’s camp jumped all over you guys two fridays ago when obama said mccain was right on some things. quid pro quo.

mccain repeated his “i looked into putin’s eyes and saw three letters: a K, a G and a B.” bad line two fridays ago. bad line again tonight. fell flat.

9:20 CST: i’m bored.

obama needs to work on these long rambling answers. he’s answered the question three times (the russia question). we gotta stop our democratic candidates from giving long, kerry/gore-esque answers. answer the question and stop talking.

by “our interests” mccain means “oil.”

9:29 CST: can we get in one more question brokaw wants to get in? he forges on. a question from new hampshire with a “zen like quality.” and it is a good question: what don’t you know and how will you learn it?

obama gave a nice answer about learning more from challenges you never expect rather than challenges you do expect. then he went into what he does know and how america is great and his mother was single.... you know, flag pin stuff.

mccain says he doesn’t know what’s going to happen... sounds like he’s setting up an attack on obama being too risky.

“i know what it’s like in dark times,” mccain says. you mean before the invention of the light bulb, right john? (sorry, enita...i couldn’t resist.)

9:34 pm CST: the debate ends on an odd note: mccain was standing in front of tom brokaw’s speech.

quick hits
--nobel prize winner al gore is in the house!
--okay... i love the oliver stone presidential movies: jfk, nixon.... i mean, i’m like an insanely HUGE fan of those. and now i have so much hope in W. and i think the previews, with that song, are pitch perfect.
--it’s comforting to hear tom brokaw’s voice.
--meanwhile, teresa in section F is about as hick as hick comes....
--8:21pm (CST): mccain calls himself a “reformer” for the first time and said “reform” within 30 seconds of it.
--8:24: “reform.” everybody drink!
--8:24: “ronald reagan.” everybody drink!
--i think people underestimated obama’s comfort level in front of a town hall crowd. he looks confident, relaxed and knowledgeable.
--here’s a switch: the democrat brought up 9/11 first!
--did you know that both obama and mccain are south paws? have i mentioned this before?
--mccain looks like a tiny pitbull pacing back and forth looking for the perfect place to take a piss.
--8:41pm: “ronald reagan.” drink!
-- ah...leave it up to a younger voter to ask about the environment. thank you, ingrid.
--“we cannot drill our way out of the problem.” nice obama.
--“i’ll stop and you didn’t even wave.” mccain used that exact same line in the first debate. get some new comedy writers.
--mccain keeps pacing. he can’t sit still. he can’t just stand back at his chair when obama speaks. it’s irritating. obama sits at his chair, allows mccain to speak….and watches him the entire time. good body language.
--mccain’s hair transplant crack fell flat. quelle surprise.
--there are a lot of white people in that room. actually, a lot of bald white men.
--by 9:10pm we’d only heard from two african americans... no latinos. mostly white people.
--okay...drinking game words for next time: for mccain: “record” and “my friends.” for obama: “21st century” and “clarify” or “follow-up.” jager shots if anyone mentions “change,” “reform” or “maverick.”
--is cindy mccain wearing purple? purple doesn’t bring to mind money or medication. what is she thinking?
--after the debate, obama went to shake mccain’s hand again and he directed him to cindy and never shook his hand.
--just a reminder: the election is four weeks from today.

final thoughts
i thought it was a pretty even debate. i would give obama the lead on demeanor and substance. mccain didn’t lose his cool and didn’t make any personal attacks.

but mccain did not change the game tonight.... which means he lost.

the types of petty attacks he made and dippy jokes just made him seem disconnected from real problems facing the country.

mccain hit hard on taxes, of course... but i’m not sure he hit home with any of them. obama was able to come back and defend himself.

mccain was clearly on the attack... but obama basically kept his cool. answered the attacks honestly. and just seemed much more presidential.

at a time when polls are widening.... and battleground states are steadily becoming more blue. this was not a performance that will lose obama any votes or garner mccain any votes.

with four weeks to go and only one more debate... i’m not sure how mccain can change the game at this point.

i’m becoming cautiously optimistic.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Notes From All Over: 200th Entry Edition

so....did you know that this would be my 200th blog entry? kinda kooky, huh?

seems like it came out of nowhere...

of course, between the storm. the fifteen (yes, count them: 15) days without power. this week being the close of last month's books at work. not to mention the 2009 budget was due this week.

and did i mention i didn't have power for fifteen days?

yeah... this blog entry came out of nowhere.

so, i kinda feel like a bit of a recap. maybe some thoughts on the past 200. probably more thoughts on the past three weeks.

but some thoughts. for the 200th entry...

hurricane horror stories
it seems so long ago now that a series on the horrors of the storm just seem, well, dated.

my friend steven and i hunkered down in my place with his two dogs, 96 bottles of water, six gallons of water, lots of bread and peanut butter... and WAY too much junk food. oh - and booze.

i really couldn't sleep as the night of the 12th turned into the early morning hours of the 13th of september. by 1:40 am - we had lost power. by 3am - we were in the thick of it, as the man says.

i spent the next three hours plugging up leaks on the north and west side of my apartment like some little dutch boy. all the while listening to the eerie screech of metal across cement from the construction site across the street from me. i thought for sure it was the mobile leasing office just waiting to fly into my apartment.

but it was so dark outside...and there was so much wind and rain... i couldn't see shit. and everytime i tried to peek outside the window - it felt like it was ready to pop in on me... so i ran and hid.

it was a long night... when the daylight began to break through the clouds and the pissing down rain of the early morning hours... i saw the road outside was a river... it was a giant storage unit that had been blown across the cement... and a shit load of downed trees, fences and shingles.

i am happy to admit: i was scared. i no longer need to wish for a category one hurricane.

just a tropical storm, in the future.

oh - and did i mention that steven slept through all of this.....?

15 days
it took centerpoint energy 15 days to get the lights on for me. all around me there were lights. i've discussed this. on the 15th day...early afternoon. the trucks descended on my neighborhood like bears (gay, not the animals) on an all you can eat hotdog contest. lots of hunky men flared out across the streets. and at about 4:20 pm... i watched the centerpoint man rise up to meet the blown transformer across the street from my living room.

he took the old one down. he hung a new one. he flipped the latch....and i turned to look at my ceiling fan.

15 days later...it began to spin.

jo jones: power woman
power was restored to my place of business five days after the storm. bigger problem: there was a giant oak on the building.

but councilwoman jolanda jones of houston came to the rescue and put us on the top of the priority list. (it's good being a nonprofit.) four pieces of heavy equipment and a crane later... the tree was off by friday. we reopened on monday.

jolanda jones was on survivor. and she pulled someone from a burning car a couple of months ago.

she's a superwoman. vote for her.

the election
i suppose i would be remiss if i didn't mention the election in my 200th entry. believe it or not.... the election has been going on for as long as i've been blogging.

madness, i know... but like crack for us politicos.

last week ole cryptkeeper mccain and the messiah known as obama debated in mississippi.

the debate was called a draw by most but i honestly felt like obama came off as the winner. and i say this with all due impartiality. mccain seemed confused and off his game throughout the debate... and he would fall back on stock answers obviously given to him by his handlers. "record" this and "leadership" that... and he would just unjustly attack obama with out and out lies.

and obama didn't let him get away with it....

obama was able to talk about a broader range of issues... from the economy to foreign policy. and he held his own on the stage with mccain in a foreign policy debate. was he great? no... but he was solid.

here's a simple way to know obama won the debate. my older brother is about as red as they come.... hates hillary like a good republican should... but he's not thrilled with either obama or mccain.

but it bugged the shit out of him that mccain would never...not once...look at obama.

obama would address mccain directly. he would look at him while he spoke. (you guys know i'm all about body language... just look back at my coverage of the hillary/obama debates.) but mccain just couldn't even bring himself to look at obama once.

and that really turned my brother off.

tonight... palin takes on biden and i'm probably looking forward to this more than any other debate.

my friend sally thinks biden should just bring out a globe, spin it and ask palin to name the president of any country his finger lands on. hell, ask her to name the country!

but i think biden has to be careful.... he can't come across as condescending or beating up on palin. he has a fine line he must walk.

palin...after interviews with gibson, couric and hannity, expectations are low. but don't let her fool you. we've already seen that she can charm a crowd.

also of note: both are gaffe machines. so let's see what happens.

football
the hurricane really fucked up my football viewing. i lost all of week 2 that first weekend. no college ball. no nfl. this a week after tom brady of the pats was injured and declared done for the season.

i can only imagine what i missed from the talking heads of the fox pregame show.

the following weekend... i was able to watch my beloved houston texans humiliate themselves. my friend rhoda and i went to a sports bar to watch the game. it was awful... the game, not the sports bar. the sports bar was, um, okay... some hot guys. but not nearly enough.

the texans also lost this past weekend..... but at least they were in the game against jacksonville.

and the texas longhorns are looking good so far this year. AP has them ranked at #5 after some major upsets last weekend. but i can't let this segment on football end without a shout out to my dear friend kristen.

kristen is a texas alum. and a good friend... she offered me access to her home (that never lost power) throughout my fifteen days. including for the games and the debate.

so...i took her up on the texas/rice game on the 20th.

i love kristen... i do. but never again..... and this all comes from love.

she told me to arrive early.. the game started at 6pm. "we have A/C," she reminded me. so i got there shortly before six....beer in hand. i was warned of the children. and there they were... all over the place.

the game started at 6. it was decided to DVR the game until everyone could settle down and watch it. by everyone i mean: kristen and her husband... their two children. the two sets of neighbors from across the street and their three children.... kristen's mother and stepfather and me.

first you had to corral the children... and feed them. but this one didn't like this and that one wanted grandma to sit by her.... and then you had to clean up after the children.

then the children had to play... and check daddy's ear and eyes and heart with the fake medical equipment. and one had to pretend to saw off the other kids' heads with his play chainsaw... (really? play chainsaw?) which caused problems. which caused a crying fit.

and then it was bath time and wash up time... but don't forget to go back across the street to get the toothbrush and toothpaste... and they need to change into pj's.

then it's time to say good night to everyone and kiss mom and dad and grandma and grandpa. oh - and then it's story time. but not just one story... they need two stories.

and then they were finally in bed.

so shortly after 8pm... we were able to start the game.

um, yeah... the cable company decided not to play the texas game advertised on the guide...but the fucking astros game instead. so we missed the entire first half. but found the game for the second half.

but, oh wait... first we have to feed the adults.

so around 8:30....we start to watch the game...which was a blow-out by then.... so who really cared?

and i love kristen... and it was so nice of her to open her home to me. and i appreciate everything she offered and everything she gave.

but, um, yeah.... me, children and football. it don't mix.

oil and water, baby. oil and water.

in conclusion
it's been a long, crazy journey..... this past september will go down as one of the worst in recent memory. the storm was frightening. the fifteen days were trying.

and trying to get work back up and running, handling the weeks' worth of appointments missed and needing to be rescheduled....

september was a bad month.

but i look ahead to october and the rest of this year and i see some nice weather. some good plans with friends.... a trip to san francisco.

and more blogging. to paraphrase my best friends wedding: "maybe there won't be (gay) marriage... maybe there won't be sex... but, by god, there will be blogging."

and hopefully sex... but that's a different entry.

e.

Tales from the Dark Side: Day 4

well, my lovelies. here we are. the final day of the republican national convention. i wasn’t sure we would make it… it’s been scary. some might say horrifying. but we’re almost at the end.

tonight’s theme is “peace: a safer and more secure america.” is that not an oxymoron when discussing the republican philosophy…? the only way the GOP knows how to bring about peace, apparently, is to attack sovereign nations and start illegitimate wars.

but hey…. did you hear that john mccain was a prisoner of war in vietnam?

the republican party is so set on winning elections through fear and smear tactics that they never miss a chance to scare the holy shit out of you.

just a bit ago, at 7:40pm CST, the mccain convention ran a very disturbing, very graphic “tribute” to 9/11. it included images of exploding and collapsing buildings. it talked about the dead and the “falling bodies.” it included the line: “and kill us they did.”

it was such an exploitive and disgusting display that keith olbermann came on the air without anyone else and apologized to those who had to watch it. “it was not appropriate,” he said.

but hey…the GOP clearly has no soul.

johnny boy’s favorite hillbilly
lindsay graham just came out and said, “this speech is for the troops.” and immediately went into the success of the surge. isn’t tonight about peace?

graham just mentioned being with mccain and lieberman every step of the way through their middle-east trip. yeah…but you weren’t the one whispering the correct answers in mccain’s ear. which is why you weren’t on the v.p. short list.

graham just said, “thank god for joe lieberman.” would that be the christian god or the orthodox jewish god?

“that’s john mcsame!”
former secretary of homeland security (the one before the guy that fucked up katrina), tom ridge of pennsylvania, took the stage to provide a bio for mccain. he talked about how both he and mccain stand for “the founding principles we all so deeply cherish.” accept a woman’s right to choose, right tom? you differ on that….

which is why he nor lieberman are the veep.

ridge said he and mccain became friends over 25 years ago when they were “both first elected to congress in 1982.” tom! shhhhh….. we’re trying to portray johnny boy as a DC outsider.

(sidebar: is that the sun rising or setting behind tom ridge…?)

said ridge: “it’s not about building a record. it’s about having one. it’s not about talking pretty, but talking straight.” not bad…. you’re no huckleberry, but not bad.

hmmmm….ridge talked a lot but he seemed to say very little for a biography introduction to mccain.

oh, cindy lou!
i shit you not… her name is cindy lou. apparently when john and cindy met he was 41 and she was 24. but he told her he was 38 and she told him she was 27. so they’re both natural liars. huh….. why does this not shock me?

we are informed that john and cindy are married in 1980…. but the video neglected to mention their marriage came after they both fucked around on mccain’s first wife for a time. we don’t like to focus on that… we focus on the family. (usually the second family.)

when cindy takes the stage, she is flanked by her sons…. the girls are off to the sides (you know, where they belong).

cindy said “doody.”

do you think cindy got a prime talking gig because she’s the breadwinner?

said cindy: “america is the most generous country in history.” ummm…. I dunno? great britain did give us david and victoria beckham.

once again with the realization that sarah palin is more popular than the presidential nominee, cindy confessed, “i’ve always thought it was a good idea to have a woman’s hand on that wheel, as well.” um….is that a euphemism?

you know…cindy does look a little glassy-eyed this evening. i think her pills have kicked in.

okay…after she had been standing for a bit and then sat back down, cindy asked her friend ernestine to “please stand up.” oh, yeah…the dolls are definitely playing hopscotch in cindy’s veins.

so…john’s her hero. and ernestine is her hero….. i bet her third hero is jesus…. or amelia earhart. jesus or amelia.

ladies & gentleman, i present to you: evil.
ahh…the video tribute to john mccain has begun: 9:04 CST. did you know he was a POW?

ummm…this is a very awkward video introduction with an odd attempt at humor interspersed throughout. “mamma’s boy”? really?

the video talked about a fire on a carrier where 134 men’s lives were lost. but somehow john mccain survived. “perhaps he had more to do?” yeah… i’m sure the other 134 men were just wasting space. thank god their lives were taken. god, i hated those fucking bastards.

“when you’ve lived in a box….” did you know john mccain was a POW?

9:13 CST: the crypt keeper has taken to the stage.

wow… mccain only has to take the stage for a chant of “U.S.A.” to begin. that’s power! POWER!

9:15 CST: mccain accepts the nomination “with gratitude, humility and confidence.” do those last two adjectives not contradict each other?

“i’m grateful to the president of the united states for leading us in these dark days following the attacks…” then the crowd broke in. wow! did mccain just acknowledge george w. bush? i thought we were running from him.

okay…mccain has been on stage for 4 minutes and we’ve had three chants of “U.S.A.”

you know what really bugs the shit out of me about john mccain? he has that same shit-eating grin that bush has…. i fucking hate that grin.

mccain did a little declaration of independence quoting…. gave some minor props to the obama camp. but declares “we’re gonna win this election.”

john mccain started to say, “i know these are tough times for many of you…” and then the crowd broke into boos and started chanting “U.S.A.” as if all these white, rich people can negate the real suffering going on in this country just by chanting “U.S.A.”

if mccain doesn’t appear out of touch, his party just showed how out of touch they are with the every day people in this country.

fuck all of you…. that makes me embarrassed of this country. i’m sorry we can’t all be rich and white and straight.

mccain just said, sarah palin has “worked with her hands and her nose... she knows.” or was it “she’s worked with her hands and her knows…she knows”? was it a mistake or is she a miracle worker with her nasal passages?

“sarah palin: she’ll snort your problems away.”

9:30 CST and i’m still waiting for some substance.

“i understand who i work for. i don’t work for a party. i don’t work for a special interest. i don’t work for myself. i work for you.” nice line, senator. what else ya got?

john mccain is going into a laundry list of reasons why he fights…. i thought tonight was about peace? can’t the republican party give peace a chance even for 50 minutes?

reagan, reagan, reagan…. you know, during this entire convention there has been so much talk of ronald reagan, i'm really surprised the republican party didn't save reagan's cock so that everyone in the party could continue to suck it throughout the years.

okay…. mccain is finally comparing and contrasting his policies with obama’s policies. of course, he’s lying… but hey…. he’s attempting substance.

mccain wants to bring competition into schools? as if teachers don’t have it hard enough…. “when a public school fails to meet its obligations to its students, parents deserve the right to choose a better education for their children.”

ummm….. it might help if a republican administration would actually fully fund education.

"we’re gonna stop sending 700 billion dollars a year to countries that don’t like us very much….” does that include iraq? or will we continue to fund and rebuild iraq? you know…. since we bombed the shit out of it and destroyed its working infrastructure.

drill, drill, drill……

ganesha help me, this man bores the shit out of me.

john mccain said he’ll improve relations with russia. it probably helps that sarah palin lives right next door and therefore is a russian expert. (right, fox news?)

“i know how the world works. i know the good and evil in it. i know how to work with leaders who share our dreams of a freer, safer and more prosperous world. and how to stand up to those who don’t.”

he probably looks into putin’s eyes and sees his soul….

hey! did you know john mccain was a POW?

there sure is a lot of talk of war and terror and standing up to “evil” for an evening devoted to peace. but why quibble?

“in america, we change things that need to be changed,” said mccain. yeah…like republicans controlling the executive branch.

“i was blessed by misfortune.” he was a POW, you know….

POW, POW, POW…..

yeah….i’m drifting. i think i’ll complete my quick hits and move on to my final thoughts. from here until the end of his speech…it’s all POW.

i’ve already heard it. and heard it. and heard it….

quick hits
--did you know that palin used a bush speechwriter for her big night? just putting that out there (she’s such an outsider).
--the alaska delegates are wearing hardhats that read: “drill now. drill here.” if only we could drill into their heads. i also see others holding t-shirts that say “drill baby, drill!”
--kissinger’s in the house.
--7:36 CST: i’m partaking of the picture in picture option so that i can track actions at the RNC and watch the giants kick the redskins’ ass. (thank vishnu! football is back!) so during halftime, i’m watching brian williams talk with tom brokaw and chuck todd at the RNC. but just down to the right, in the corner, i see keith olbermann talking with tom brokaw and chucky-T on msnbc. did i just stumble upon parallel universes?
--i keep hearing that the media is attacking palin on whether or not she can be both a mother to five and the vice president of the united states? ummm….could someone please tell me who is saying this? i haven’t heard this anywhere…
--8:08 CST: just under three minutes in the third quarter. washington 7, new york 16.
--have you heard that sarah palin is a reformer? she supported the bridge to nowhere before she didn’t.
--oh…and she’s a hockey mom and a member of the PTA. i sense vladimir putin shaking in his boots.
--8:25 CST: the crowd begins a chant of “U.S.A.” seems late tonight.
--oh jesus! there’s nothing funnier than a large crowd of rhythmically-challenged white people trying to chant “that’s john mccain” in unison.
--8:36 CST: mccain is in the hizzouse.
--final score: washington 7, new york 16. go eli.
--just FYI: there has not been a single mention of afghanistan in all four days of the republican national convention. you remember afghanistan, right?
--last night i forgot to mention that rudy giuliani added leading a military platoon to the list of executive experience. so…there’s the argument for mccain’s executive experience. so when they go after obama and biden for no experience in that arena, it doesn’t also apply to john mccain (at least, not in their tiny brains).
--there are some disturbing hats out in that convention crowd.
--andrea mitchell is under attack by balloons! andrea! andrea!

final thoughts
tonight was a much weaker night for the GOP than last night… last night was full of fiery rhetoric and tremendous speeches. palin blew the roof of the xcel center. (did i mention the GOP convention is being held in the xcel ENERGY center?)

the mccains, neither cindy nor john, are strong speakers. tonight was lacking the red meat and even the specifics of last night’s attacks.

last night the speakers really went after the democrats and obama and really drew clear distinctions. tonight….mccain offered no specifics. except on his time as a POW.

i know he wants to build his entire campaign around those 5 1/2 years…. but he needs to start offering something more. and mocking obama by saying he feels “anointed” will also not garner any new voters.

mccain just said he’d fight for his country until he draws his last breath. considering palin’s lack of experience….let’s hope that’s not any time soon should mccain become president.

i realize i’m so far left i’m practically pink…. but tonight simply did not impress me. the vast majority of the convention did not impress me. only last night made the GOP look like they had a fighting chance.

looks like picking palin is the smartest choice mccain could’ve made. she excites people so much more than him.

oh, hell. mccain just ended his speech with a call to stand up and fight and make a difference. “stand up! stand up! stand up and fight!” god…his pinched, penguin voice makes him sound like a member of the lollipop guild.

and on that note….. blah.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Tales from the Dark Side: Day 3

governor palin stormed into the republican national convention this evening lead by three polar bears she hopes to grind into hamburger meat once she successfully takes them off the endangered species list.

umm, ya know, it's funny.... words spoken by my friend, the brilliant sister epiphenita of the interrupted internet, have recycled themselves over and over again in my head all day today:

don't you think that demonizing all republicans, straights, suburbanites, etc. is ultimately sloppy, oversimplistic logic that prevents us from moving forward?

and i said that i do.... but goddammit. i can't listen to all of this republican bullshit without making fun of it. i hope that at the base of my demonization and smart-ass remarks lay a logic that debunks the GOP philosophy. my interest, more than anything during the convention, is to point out the hypocrisy of the republican party.

and...hopefully....make people laugh.

so back to miss moose stew 1984.... nbc nightly news had an interesting segment on governor palin's time as mayor of wasilla, alaska. wasilla is a town of 7,000 people, which is half the population of chippewa falls, wisconsin and half the size of the dallas/fort worth airport.

on october 23, 2006, the anchorage daily news quoted palin as explaining her job as mayor thus: "it's not rocket science. it's $6 million and 53 employees."

and, um....that's experience? enough executive experience to take over as president of the united states should mccain drop dead?

also...on an aside: government spending and dept grew while palin was mayor and she asked the librarian how they could get rid of "offensive books" in the wasilla library. oh - and her greatest accomplishment, the wasilla sports complex, is still running in the red.

so.... i find it interesting that people like former senator john danforth, when asked about palin vs. biden, has the nerve to answer, "if you want a washington insider, if you believe that the heart and the soul and the brains of washington are located in washington d.c., biden is a terrific choice. on the other hand, if you think washington is more of a problem than a solution...palin."

ummmm....are you not arguing, in that same sentence, against senator john mccain who has been a washington insider since the early 80's?

danforth went on to say that if being a d.c. outsider disqualified you from being president, it would've disqualified presidents carter and clinton. no mention by senator danforth that it would have also disqualified presidents reagan and george w. bush.

but you know...why stop the hypocrisy at this point?

the string of losers
starting at 8pm CST, the mccain camp began the parade of the GOP presidential losers. first up, ole flip-flop mitt.

romney began speaking down about the "eastern elite." correct me if i'm wrong, but wasn't he the governor of massachusetts?

anyway.... he gave a lot of red meat. really attacked the liberals and obama, in particular. but also continued the dialogue of the evil, liberal media. oh...and he tried to scare the shit out of people.

mike huckleberry took the stage at 8:26. not one to throw stones...but huckabee has put back on some pounds since losing the nomination.... and he's just as quirky chunky as he was thin. oops....there is was: 8:27..."the elite media." i'm sensing a theme....

"the presidency is not a symbolic job," said huck in response to obama's historic nomination as president. a good line....

i will say one thing about huckleberry hound.... he's charming, he's funny...and he's a great speaker. he got a lot of good lines in. "i'm not a republican because i grew up rich. i'm a republican because i didn't want to spend the rest of my life poor, waiting for the government to rescue me." i hate that line of argument, but it got the crowd on their feet and it's the shit the GOP eat up.

pro-life, pro-life, pro-life.

"she got more votes running for the mayor of wasilla than joe biden got running for the president of the united states." these are the type of zingers that made huckabee very popular during the primary season.

what? huckabee just mentioned something about mccain being a prisoner of war during vietnam? is that true? has anyone else heard this....?

you could choke on the cheesy, patriotism at the RNC, my hand to vishnu!

(shit....somehow i just lost several passages that i had written covering giuliani's speech and sarah palin's speech. i was live-blogging so i have no notes to return to. i shall give some memories of the speeches for you.)

rudy "i spent more time at ground zero than the firefighters" giuliani gave a powerful speech. he really hit hard against the dems. and ole lispy mcgee really went after obama in particular.

said giuliani of obama's time in the illinois legislature: "nearly 130 times, he couldn't make a decision. he couldn't figure out whether to vote "yes" or "no." it was too tough. he voted -- he voted present." rudy went on to say that it's not enough just to be present as a president.

well, no shit.... bush has been present (if not mentally) for the past eight years and look how badly he fucked up this country.

then there was something about terror, terror, terror... 9/11, 9/11.

oh...and apparently there is something to this mccain POW story. because rudy talked about it too.

i remember i wrote: "i think my head may explode if i have to listen to any more of this idiocy. must..... fight..... urge..... to...drink."

and then i said i'd stop blogging until the main event but once again stressed that giuliani gave a great speech with lots of read meat and powerful attacks against the obama/biden ticket.... and that he got the crowd pumped up and on their feet.

ladies & gentlemen: sarah barracuda
i started off by remarking on this historical moment. for the first time in history... the GOP has placed a woman on the top of their ticket. not at the very top... but at the top. and at 9:03 CST...palin accepted the nomination and made history.

she is charming. she is beautiful... she gave a great speech. and she too hit hard against the dems and obama.

of course, she talks like she belong in a john ford western.

she was very smart to talk directly to parents of "special needs" children and make them a promise. that'll speak to a lot of those independent, suburban moms.

palin's line of the evening will be: "i guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a "community organizer," except that you have actual responsibilities."

she attacked obama for saying one thing to people in scranton but something else to those in san francisco (please note the rust belt to fag central).

she hit hard at the media and the elite: "i've learned quickly, these past few days, that if you're not a member in good standing of the washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone."

everyone tonight has really hit hard against the media and the "liberal elite of the east." when in doubt, and when a republican, blame the "liberal media."

"the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull? lipstick." she's very charming.

she gave a great speech and she's very winning. beautiful, witty.... she has the GOP more energized than mccain.

she did a great job tonight. i wish i had everything else i had written.

quick hits
--why did mitt romney look like he was on the brink of tears throughout his entire speech?
--8:15 CST: first chant of "U.S.A." that i heard. this after romney started playing the "scare the shit out of americans" game.
--8:21 CST: msnbc found a black man in the audience.
--earlier in the evening, dr. elena rios (president/ceo of the national hispanic medical association) spoke about america "becoming more diverse" and said "by 2042, people of color will be the emerging majority. 1 out of 3 americans will be hispanic." she went on to say "this is truly something to celebrate." well, um, i didn't hear a single cheer or any applause erupt from the sea of white republicans while she spoke. so...maybe they don't see it as a reason to celebrate....?
--"tackier than a costume change at a madonna concert." um, nice try huck. but not very funny. then again, i am gay and madonna is my god. praise madonna!
--olbermann on hand to correct hucakabee: the republican party was founded in 1854 by disgruntled members of the whig party... lincoln would join later and run in 1860. as far as palin winning more votes than biden: biden won 15,000 votes in florida and 18,000 votes in california. (quick math: wasilla has a population of 7,000 so even if she won every vote (even those not old enough to vote) in TWO elections, that's only 14,000 votes....). thanks, keith!
--once again, you hear all this talk about the importance of palin's executive experience. mccain has NO executive experience.
--this is the point where i lost all my quick hits. so i'll write what i remember.
--cindy mccain turned in her gold-plated dress for a money-green dress.
--why is bristol palin always holding the baby? and thank ganesha her redneck, hillbilly boyfriend got a decent haircut.
--giuliani garnered a chant of "U.S.A." during his speech.
--i don't know where they got the names for their children, but those palin kids have some funky names.
--the mention of the palin son going to iraq got a "U.S.A." chant. and we wonder why the world considers us arrogant.
--i wonder how many votes the camera shot of little piper palin holding the newest palin garnered?
--palin's gay husband looks very proud of her.
--my friend carey is so annoyed by all the republicans talking about how proud they are that bristol palin has chosen to keep her baby (even though she is not married). says carey: "EXACTLY! it's a CHOICE!." sorry, carey. i just don't think the GOP is gonna get it.
--did you know that john mccain was a POW during the vietnam war? it's true.... oh, and he appeared on stage at the end.

final thoughts
well, i'm really pissed i lost most of this post. i had some good shit in here, if i do say so myself.

it was a strong night for the GOP. a lot of red meat. a lot of very pointed attacks. the losing candidates gave splendid speeches. in particular, huckleberry was very charming and giuliani was very strong.

sarah palin gave a great speech.... and it's a historic moment having the first woman on the ballot for the first time since 1984. but i want to reiterate: she is the wrong woman.

to all my female readers, allow me to take this opportunity to remind you that sarah palin is an evangelical christian that does not believe in a woman's right to choose. to my gay readers...she does not believe in gay marriage or civil unions.

to everyone: governor sarah palin is, possibly, even more conservative than john mccain.

she is the anti-hillary.... be smart, please. don't go there.

protect your rights.

obama/biden 08!

e.