Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

black swan
the fighter
inception
the kids are all right
the king's speech
127 hours
the social network
toy story 3
true grit
winter's bone

well, tonight's the big night. gay christmas. the 83rd annual academy awards. or as they call it in billy crystal's house: passover.

it's a busy day for me so i tend to short-shrift best picture a bit. but there are some easy disqualifications to make.

you cannot take a best picture nomination seriously if they do not have a corresponding best director nod. so.... say bye-bye to inception, the kids are all right, 127 hours, toy story 3 and winter's bone. without a director... it's just not gonna happen.

i think the 10 nominees is idiocy.... but we have them. the only upside is that brilliant films like winter's bone can snag a nomination when they might normally be too small for the academy to remember.

so we're left with five serious nominees. of those, only the social network and the king's speech have a chance.

the social network has won every. single. critic's. award. you. can. win.

it is the best film of the year. as i said last night.... it's fresh, it's solid... it's of our time. it's built on one of the best screenplays we've had in years. (by the way, aaron sorkin will win best adapted screenplay for network. just watch the first 8 minutes of the film... pure word masturbation. it's genius.)

but the king's speech has won the one award (well, two) that might matter the most. the big one is the producers guild of america award. the PGA winner has most likely always gone on to win best picture at the oscars. (in fact, they've matched up 75% of the time over the years.)

hooper also won the director's guild and, as previously discussed, that generally means he'll go on to win the best director oscar. the winner of the best director oscar almost always takes home the gold for best picture, as well.

they do differ from time to time. but in the past 30 years, the picture/director split has only occurred SIX times. the last time was 2005 when crash undeservedly won best picture but ang lee won director for brokeback mountain.

i'm reading a lot of chatter about a picture/director split this year. it's not normally predicted but the theory appears to have a following this year.

i adore the king's speech. i think it's a nearly perfect film. i will be thrilled if it wins best picture. but i simply see the social network as the better film.

but.... i don't see it taking home both director and picture.

so.... a split. (just to make things even more interesting.)

will win: the king's speech
should win: the social network

and i leave you now with my beloved liza minnelli singing my favorite oscar song: "oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!"

happy oscars!

e.