Sunday, November 23, 2008

Let's Talk Big 12

okay, kiddies... it's been a long time coming. you know i've been sidetracked by the election but the goodies beat the baddies so now it's time to refocus on football.

more pointedly: college football. specifically: the big 12 south.

we currently have a three-way tie in the big 12 south...universally considered the strongest conference this year in college ball.

so....first texas beats oklahoma at the red river shootout.

then texas tech beats texas in lubbock surrounded by one of the most rabid football crowds i've seen in a long time.

and just last night....oklahoma put the hurtin' on tech and whooped up on them 21-65.

so...each team now has one loss. so who goes to the big 12 championship to play mizzou? whoever goes will most likely go to the BCS championship game and face (i predict) florida.

and, of course, whichever big 12 team goes to the championship game becomes the frontrunner for the heisman.

this means we need to figure some things out. basically, whoever scores higher in the insane calculation of the bowl championship series (BCS) poll....meets mizzou in the big 12 championship.

to recap: texas beat oklahoma. tech beat texas. oklahoma beat tech.

the latest BCS poll has the following top five:

1. alabama (the only remaining undefeated team in a BCS conference)
2. texas (hook 'em!)
3. oklahoma (OU sucks!)
4. florida (they should probably be #2)
5. USC (is anyone else sick of USC?)

texas tech dropped to #7.

okay, so texas goes on to the big 12 championship, right...? not so fast.

several things need to happen:

1. texas has to beat A&M in austin this thanksgiving. this should be easy... A&M has been playing like shit all year long... but a rivalry game is a rivalry game and i never count out the faggies.

remember: last time texas played A&M in austin, texas lost. of course, colt mccoy was hurt. he's healthy this year and in the running for the heisman.

i think texas should run away with this... but they have to run away B-I-G! i'm talking 52+ points and hold the aggies to 7. whatever happens... it needs to be a blowout. because (let's be honest) beating the aggies won't add much to your BCS score. they're you have to win big.

2. oklahoma has to beat oklahoma state (OSU). if OU loses, then it's down to two teams with only 1 loss and tech beat texas so tech goes to the championship game.

but....we need OU to beat OSU just slightly. if they kill OSU, who is ranked #12, it looks much better in the polling.

texas only holds a slim lead over OU in the BCS poll: .920 to .912 - only .008 points. so anything can change....

i listened to lee corso and kirk herbstreit last night after the tech slaughter and they both put texas ahead of oklahoma.... simply put: head-to-head, texas trumped OU by 10 points: 45-35.

and remember...texas only barely lost to tech 33-39 in a hostile lubbock environment.

the other important point made by herbstreit.... beyond beating OU head-to-head, texas beat oklahoma in a neutral stadium.

it's easy to beat a team on your home turf.... you have the excitement of the crowd. the noise... just that feeling of protecting "our house."

tech won in lubbock. OU won in norman.

i think this is an important point and one that cannot be emphasized enough.

head-to-head in a neutral stadium....texas won.

assuming tech beats baylor this week (and how could they not? and if somehow tech does's all a moot point and texas goes to the championship - they beat OU.) and texas beats A&M and oklahoma beats oklahoma state... the BCS rankings make the call.

texas has to stay ahead of OU.

i.e. hook 'em.


p.s. i see the heisman trophy race thus: another three-way tie between mccoy of texas, bradford of OU and tebow of florida. harrell and crabtree blew their chance for a decent bowl and a heisman trophy when they allowed OU to spank them. i think it'll come down to tebow (who would win a second year in a row) and whoever wins the big 12 championship. that quarterback becomes the frontrunner: mccoy or bradford.

p.p.s. the houston texans scored their first W on the road this season. they topped the browns 16-6 in cleveland. well played, boys... especially the defense.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Delayed Post Election Coitus

my friend james sent me the above cartoon and said it reminded him of me... and sadly, i admit, i've already looked at some polls for who the GOP consider their best bet for 2012.

but the madness has to end... i understand... or, at the very least, the madness needs to take a short vacation.

however, between finalizing work and other odds and ends before a trip... not to mention taking the trip out to san francisco... i never really had a chance to dissect and revisit the 2008 election.

there were some definite high begin: obama's historic victory.

did everyone notice the odd uptick in optimism around the country after obama's win? even republicans seemed cheered.....

and everywhere people were saying: "now, every parent in the united states can tell their child, 'when you grow can be anything you want to be.'"

unless you're a woman, of course. sexism still rules....

i'd also like to point out that my electoral map proved correct, save missouri. so i was only off by 10 electoral votes... i'm also waiting on two senate races to see if my prediction of a net gain of 8 senate seats for the dems holds true.

i have little hope for georgia but i'm still hoping al franken can eek out a win in minnesota.

i've become a bit obsessed with the passage of prop8 out in california. i'd also like to mention that both florida and arizona passed laws banning same sex marriage and arkansas passed a law forbidding homosexuals from adopting children.

will we soon be faced with another attempt at a briggs-type law? will it be a national movement this time? will we soon seek to outlaw homosexuals from teaching again?

i mean, everyone seems so fucking frightened of the queer effect on children. fags can't marry because of the children. dykes can't adopt because of the children.

save the children!

it makes me want to shout a collective "fuck you" to everyone....

i mean, let's ignore the fact that most pedophiles are actually straight men... let's ignore the ever-growing list of straight, female teachers who are sleeping with their under-aged students.

let's try to forget that the divorce rate is around (what?) 60% in this country...

why don't the breeders of our country worry about getting their own house in order before they start accusing us of the downfall of society?

my friend james and i attended an anti-prop8 rally while in san francisco this past saturday... we were joined by 7,500 other individuals outside the SF city hall... and countless others across the nation (including some very dear friends here in houston).

i really find an overwhelming sense of anger boil up inside me whenever i think about these anti-gay measures that have passed. just when you think we're taking giant steps forward....we're smacked backwards by the hands of bigots and zealots.

and it's not just the mormon church... 70% of the large african american turnout for obama in california also voted to discriminate against homosexuals.

apparently, they can overcome but we cannot.....

and i don't mean to diminish the struggle of the african american people. fuck knows they've had it beyond horrible for centuries.... and just because obama won doesn't mean there's no longer racism or injustice and inequality for black people.

but should any "vulnerable minority" - as dan savage puts it - be marginalized by any oppressive majority? even those made up of other oppressed minorities?

i am a second class citizen.

i pay my taxes... i work... i give back... i fight and stand up for equal rights for racial minorities and women.... yet i remain a second class citizen.

where is my american dream....?

yes, there was much to cheer for on the evening of november 4, 2008.... but i still find a lingering and bile taste in my mouth two weeks later.

i've told some friends that i think the combination of the hateful passage of prop8, paired with the upcoming release of the movie milk about slain homosexual leader and activist, harvey milk, may lead to a rebirth of action and protest on behalf of equal rights for ALL americans....

i say it's time.

stop H8.

take action.

we can't afford to be silent....

we must stand up for ourselves....

it's become obvious that no one else gives two shits.


Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Six Random Things...TAG!

six random things...i've been tagged by stevensvox and sister epiphenita. (i'd add a link to their sites but i've yet to figure out links or take the time to read how to incorporate them into my blag. (p.s. i'm open to assistance.) oh, and this is not one of my six random things...)

the rules:

1. link to the person who tagged you.
2. post the rules on the blog.
3. write six random things about yourself.
4. tag six people at the end of your post.
5. let each person know they have been tagged.
6. let the tagger know when your entry is up.

and away we go.....

1. i think i'm claustrophobic and agoraphobic.... where does that leave me?

2. i'm fascinated (and confounded) by the spelling of "segue."

3. as a child, when i played g.i. joe & cobra...i always had to be cobra. but no one could could only take prisoners. when my brothers played without me... everybody died.

4. sometimes i enjoy sitting down to pee.

5. my body can't decide if it's on central standard time or pacific time. it makes falling asleep and waking up rather tiresome.

6. one of my employees told me the rapture will begin in 2009 and i need to get my life in order. this is according to her pastor. i looked over the 10 commandments and i'm doing pretty goddamn good. oops... well, not that commandment.

i'd tag others with blogs but i don't know how to link and i think everyone i know with a blog has already been tagged.

is that anti-climactic or what....?


Monday, November 3, 2008

Countdown to the Election: 1 Day

well, holy shit... did you ever think the day would come...? we are just one day away from choosing the next president of the united states.

yes, tomorrow is election day 2008.

we're only one day away. one day! we were SO close... but there it was. when i woke up this morning.......

the GOP is running a jeremiah wright ad in pennsylvania. and, actually, i've seen another GOP ad featuring jeremiah wright at least twice tonight on msnbc... and i think nbc.

so.....we almost made it. i mean, it was getting pretty ugly, sure. but we had avoided wright.

but the republican party never fails to sink lower and lower. they are, truly, despicable.

anyway...shame on you... and on to the polls. currently has an estimated 278 electoral votes for obama and 132 electoral votes for mccain. that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama with 128 toss-up votes remaining.

without toss-ups...RCP has the electoral map you see above. they predict 338 electoral votes for obama and 200 for mccain. that's a lead of 138 electoral votes for obama and that's a decisive victory.

when we look at the RCP average of recent polls....the numbers break down as follows:

obama 51.6%
mccain 44.3%

as you can see...the polls have widened again and obama is up 7.3 percentage points over mccain heading into election day. in fact, out of the 14 polls they've gathered over the past couple of days...obama stands over 50% in all but one.

now...i actually think this map is a bit safe. in this final evening before the election, i've decided not to play it safe. below is my prediction for the outcome of tomorrow's election.

okay, i admit this may be overly optimistic...but this is my prediction. it's not the 390 electoral votes predicted by the dailykos....but it's ambitious.

my numbers come out with 375 electoral votes for the obama/biden ticket and 163 electoral votes for mccain/palin.

i've moved missouri, indiana and north carolina into obama's column.

let me start by saying i know a lot of people have been saying the polls are tightening... and in some states they are...although they're not nationally.

of course, as i've been hammering home....national numbers don't mean much. it comes down to the states.

but most polls are made up of "likely voters." the scenario for "likely voters" is derived from looking at who voted in the two prior elections. i don't think those scenarios accurately depict who will be voting this year.

they don't take into account a larger african-american turn-out. or the likely turn-out of a large number of younger voters. i should also point out, speaking of younger voters, polls only contact individuals with landlines. most college students who are crazy/enthusiastic for obama will not have a landline.

this is an HUGE population which i think will FINALLY show up at the polls and they're largely being ignored in the polling data.

i also think the overwhelming disgust the democratic party feels after suffering through the past 8 years will draw an amazing (and record-breaking) turn-out at the polls.

so...let's look at these three states quickly:

RCP currently has mccain up a mere 0.5% over obama in missouri (48% mccain, 47.5% obama). consistently, however, obama has tracked higher than mccain. and in two recent polls, fox news/rasmussen and surveyUSA, mccain and obama are tied. reuters/zogby actually has obama up by 1 point.

i just think turn-out will nudge obama over the top in this bell-weather state.

north carolina also has mccain up by a mere 0.6% over obama. again...this is another state where obama has been tracking high up until just a day or two ago.

taking into account that polls almost always tighten towards the end....i just trust the prior trend of obama leading. in fact, he was leading up until yesterday.

i think it might just be an odd hiccup in the polls. i think turn-out again will be the key. it will be close...but i think democrats will be disgusted not just by eight years of bush/cheney but also the ads being run by elizabeth dole. this will help increase the democratic turn-out and push him ahead. but by very little.

and finally...indiana. i've discussed this state before (and another shout-out here to rebecca. congrats on the colts' win over the pats last night!) and i stand by my prediction that obama will win.

this is another state where obama has been tracking up.... now the polls currently have mccain up 1.4% (47.6% mccain, 46.2% obama) with PPP(D) showing obama up +1 and reuters/zogby showing mccain up +5. however, two recent polls (ARG and downs center/surveyUSA) have the race tied.

i just think looking at national polls which show a sharp increase in the numbers for obama and the general tracking of obama leading in most polls until just the past couple of days....

not to mention all the early voting in 31 states which probably doesn't reflect the current polls....

i'm just thinking tomorrow night is a good night for obama.

and i use the term "good" relatively. afterall...tomorrow night, no matter the outcome, will be a somber evening for senator obama who lost his grandmother earlier today.

this is the woman who helped raise obama and it must be incredibly sad for everyone that she will not be around to see her grandson, very possibly, make history.

tomorrow is a huge day. and i know there's been a lot of hype but this is a truly historic election.... and probably the most important election in our lifetime.

so VOTE!

and'll vote for:

obama/biden 08!


Sunday, November 2, 2008

Countdown to the Election: 2 Days

good evening, my lovelies.... please forgive the late post but the heartache had to continue today.

not only did texas lose to tech last night in the final seconds... but the texans lost today to the vikings. just not a good weekend for football. except the cowboys. they lost... that's always nice.

oh... and i'd like to take a moment to say i don't really understand why everyone gets so excited when the clocks "fall back." there seems to be a delusion out there that you get an extra hour of sleep.

um, no you don't... you just wake up an hour earlier... i didn't wake up at 8 this morning. i woke up at 7. yeah... so now i'm waiting for my normal bedtime but i've actually been up an hour longer..........

bodies become attuned to the internal clock, people.

but anyway.....on to politics. some interesting developments from

and people...i beg of you to visit this site. i realize all of the 24 hour news channels seem to be breaking news with montana now a toss-up and arizona now a toss-up. yeah... i know. RCP is way ahead of you.

jesus... i think i'm a bit cranky all of the sudden.

anyway.... the really interesting development is not the number of traditional red states that continue to fall out of the mccain column....but the two blue states that have been taken out of the obama column.

this morning....RCP took ohio and virginia out of the "leaning obama" column. a HUGE development.

so the electoral map...with toss-ups...looks thus:

obama 278
mccain 132

so that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama...and still over the needed number of 270. but we now have 128 electoral votes considered "toss ups."

without toss-ups...we're looking at an estimated 353 electoral votes for obama and only 185 for mccain. watching the sunday morning talk shows today...these numbers seem to be the going prediction.

now, while obama is losing points in the estimated electoral map...he is gaining points in most national polls. he currently stands 50.7% to 44.3% over mccain, or +6.4%.

i also wanted to put up the racial voting breakdown as polled by gallup. interesting numbers which might explain why obama should win come sunday.

african americans: 91% obama, 4% mccain
hispanic: 65% obama, 27% mccain
white: 44% obama, 50% mccain

with such large numbers in certain populations overwhelmingly going for obama... it's a hard road to 270 for mccain.

but let's look today at the two states taken away from obama (at least for now) and why they've been recategorized as "toss-ups."

ohio, of course, was the big story from 2004. RCP average of polls currently has obama at 48.8% and mccain at 44.6% (or +4.2 obama). now....while recent polls from la times/bloomberg has obama up 9 points (49% to mccain's 40%) and a fox news/rasmussen poll has obama up by 4 points (49% to 45%).... a new poll out today from mason-dixon shows mccain up by 2 (45% obama, 47% mccain).

that's not a tightening of the polls...that's a reversal.

now...this is only one poll, but it's enough to question where ohio might go. therefore, ohio is back in the questionable column.

in virginia we're looking at more of a tightening... RCP average still has obama up +3.8% (49.8% to mccain's 46%). and, in fact...obama still leads in all polls.

that lead has just dropped from a 6 or 7 point lead down to less than 4 points.

mason-dixon has obama up by three but the latest polls from surveyUSA, fox news/rasmussen and marist all have obama up by 4 points. in fact, surveyUSA has obama at 50% and the other two have obama coming in with 51% of the vote.

anytime you have over're generally golden.

so, yes, mccain has closed the gap. just yesterday obama was up 51% to 45% on average. but with polls still coming in with him garnering more than 50% of the vote... i don't fret much.

my prediction.... obama snags both ohio and virginia.

some other predictions...since they did this on this week today... i agree with most that the democrats will gain a net 8 seats in the senate. this will bring their total to 59 seats... one shy of the 60 seat filibuster/veto proof majority.

i also expect a net gain of over 20 additional blue seats in the house.

races of note: watch for former SNL alum al franken to beat norm coleman in minnesota. watch for hagan to defeat dole in NC. stevens (the longest serving GOP member of the senate) should lose his seat in alaska thanks to the guilty verdicts... and the most interesting race could be if the GOP leader in the senate, mitch mcconnell of kentucky, loses his seat on tuesday to wealthy businessman bruce lunsford.

so..... while the numbers are still very fluid - i'm still optimistic looking ahead.

i'm not ready to jinx anything and i still believe in being cautious. and....for vishnu's sake... you still need to VOTE!

but... things appear to be looking good.

see you tomorrow. get some sleep.

obama/biden 08!


Saturday, November 1, 2008

Countdown to the Election: Days 4 & 3

my apologies, fellow politicos. yesterday was halloween and i was simply too busy thinking about chocolate and watching psycho dwarfs in red raincoats tormenting donald sutherland to post.

so today we'll tackle two states.... but let me tell you why. the last two days i have set my browser to and noticed something odd in the electoral map.

mccain's numbers have been shrinking....

first RCP took georgia off the map. back in the toss-up column. then i looked this morning... and i had heard grumblings about this possibility. but there it was. arizona was no longer red. no longer even slightly red...

mccain's home state of arizona is back in the toss-up column.

that puts the current RCP estimate of electoral votes as obama with 311 and mccain at 132...with 95 toss-up votes. that's a net positive of 179 electoral votes for obama.

no toss-ups? 353 for obama and 185 for mccain. that's a net positive of 168 electoral votes for obama....

the national polls....again - just a reminder that they don't mean much - it's the states....

obama 50.2%
mcccain 43.6%.

again...+6.6 points for obama. that's pretty much standing steady....

oh - and just so we cover the topic. i know several people are still worried about a possible "bradley effect." and looking back over history, i understand why...

most pundits believe that an african american candidate needs to have a net positive of at least 5 points in the poll to be safe from any hidden racism.

but one of my favorite columnists...gail collins of the times...points out something beautiful in her column today. while she doesn't dismiss the fact that some people may be afraid to tell a perfect stranger over the phone they won't vote for a black candidate... would those same people go so far as to say they think obama is better for the economy, taxes, health care, etc...?

as gail says: that "seem[s] like a lot of effort to impress a stranger on the other end of a telephone line."

so...i tentatively think we can put the bradley effect to bed. at least... i hope.

anyway - back to the states.

let's begin with georgia...where i have no friends to which i should "shout out."

georgia currently stands obama 46% and mccain 49%. it's a net positive of 3 points for mccain. that's a single digit lead for a fucking republican in fucking georgia.

so...the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up +5 (52% to 47%) and the latest research2000 poll has mccain up a mere 3 points (47% to 44%).

this is a state that should go red and should hold a stronger lead for mccain. but i think african american turnout could make this an interesting race.

do i think obama could steal georgia's 15 electoral votes? i'm doubtful.... but it makes for an interesting campaign.

so arizona.... actually, another state with no connections for me.

arizona...mccain's home down to a single digit lead. RCP has mccain up by a mere 3.5 points in their average of polls. mccain 49.3% to obama 45.8%.

the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up by 5 points (51% to 46%) and the research2000 poll has mccain up... are you ready for this...? by just 1 point. mccain 48%, obama 47%.

this. is. fascinating....

i really can't imagine mccain loses arizona and its 10 electoral votes. i mean... he's been a senator from there for such a long time.

but could a large hispanic vote (yes, hispanic vote) tip things for obama?

this could all really come down to turn-out. if obama...who has an amazing ground operation in almost every state...can get his supporters out in a larger number than mccain... he could just upset some states.

(was that just a john madden/painfully obvious statement...? "what needs to happen is...the green jerseys need to move the ball down the field and the white jerseys need to stop them. boom!")

anyway... i'm predicting both of these states to go red come tuesday... but i love that obama is forcing mccain to spend money in so many states that should be solidly red.

this election...i'm telling you...from the primaries all the way through tuesday... it's simply one of the most fascinating, wild, unpredictable races in recent history.

i hope you're paying attention. this one is going down in the history books.


obama/biden 08!