Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

darren aronofsky, black swan
david o. russell, the fighter
tom hooper, the king's speech
david fincher, the social network
joel & ethan coen, true grit

okay, kiddies... it's getting late and i still have a shitload to accomplish this evening in pre-prep for tomorrow.

so let's just cut to the chase, shall we? (get it? "cut"? director...? nevermind.)

so the coen brothers just recently won for no country for old men. (great film. seriously... check it out.) too soon for them to win again. as awesome as true grit is. (and you'll probably never hear me say this about any other film: better than the original.)

darren aronofsky remains too out there, i think, to win. plus.... it's his first nomination. david o. russell stunned a lot of oscar watchers with his nomination. also... first one. won't win.

this is really a two way race: fincher v. hooper.

now. this is fincher's second nomination for best director. he was last nominated for the highly overrated the curious case of benjamin button.

this is hooper's first nomination.

so i seem to want to discount first-time nominees, right? wrong! i mean... it happens. especially if you were an actor first. (see redford, costner, eastwood, gibson.)

BUT. and this is a HUGE "but." hooper won the director's guild award for the king's speech. the DGA, people.

in the 63 years of the director's guild, the winner has NOT gone on to win the oscar only.....SIX time. six, people.

now, this has happened twice since 2000. the first time in 2000 when ang lee won the DGA for crouching tiger, hidden dragon but lost the oscar to steven soderbergh for traffic. and the last time in 2002 when rob marshall won the DGA for chicago but lost the gold to roman polanski on oscar night for his direction of the pianist.

so all indications would lead one to think hooper has the oscar in the bag, yes?

well..... david fincher has won every single critics' award leading up to the DGA for his superb direction of the social network. he won the golden globe. he even won the BAFTA (the british equivalent of the academy award...) over brit, hooper.

i don't really know what to say? both films are exceptional. both directors are worthy. i.... well, i lean towards the social network and fincher. i find the direction fresh and inventive. it feels very much of our time. and... it's flawless.

so... while the safe money is on hooper, i'm going out on a limb here, people. "no guts, no glory," as the man says. i'm predicting fincher to take home the oscar. yes.... a split from the DGA and, perhaps, a split from the ultimate winner of best picture.

but that's tomorrow.

will win: david fincher, the social network
should win: david fincher, the social network

e.