Monday, December 31, 2007
only three days to go....
hard to believe it's almost here - but the iowa caucuses are this thursday. i think i'll take the next three days to update the latest polls and see how things are shaping up.
but first...let's discuss the process. i understand the weather is supposed to be nice thursday night. not too cold (the 30's) and sunny. a big turn out will help obama and clinton. a small turnout will help edwards...who lays claim to the caucus faithful.
obama could be hurt because his largest supporter pot comes in the form of younger voters... they're home for the holidays.
the republicans vote much like a staw poll. anonymous ballots that are counted to find a winner. pretty straight forward.
the dems....they've got it tough. everyone is in a room and you go to separate sides or corners to show your support of each candidate. nothing anonymous about this. you have to get up in front of everyone and stand by your nominee. that could be daunting.
there's a great story about the daughter of a very powerful man in one town that went to stand with the howard dean group in 2004 and the father said, "you take one more step, young lady, and you're grounded for a month." she turned around and stood with him and the other john kerry folk.
nominees must also garner at least 15% of the crowd for their candidate. if someone does not get 15% - those people negotiate with the other groups and can move towards their second choice.
edwards scores the most points as people's second choice.
realclearpolitics.com currently has hillary ahead in iowa by an average of 2 points. she's ahead 4 in the reuters/zogby poll and 7 in the latest american research poll.
edwards leads by 1 in mason-dixon and obama leads by 1 in strategic vision. the latest msnbc poll has edwards first with clinton in second and obama in third.
i heard some mumbling yesterday that obama is still expected to win iowa. i'm prepared to call edwards the winner today... but that could change before thursday.
if nothing else...the obama momentum has appeared to slow.
on the republican side...realclearpolitics.com currently has flip-flop mitt in the lead by a mere 0.4 points over hillbilly huckabee. reuters/zogby has huck up by 2 but american research has romney up by 9.
i'm still predicting huckabee to take iowa.... although - mitt may have the troops on the ground to sway turnout.
looks to be an exciting week. love these close races. i just hope hillary can come out on top.
see ya tomorrow.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
well....it finally happened. the texans finished a season without a losing record.
with a final score of 28-42 over the jacksonville jaguars, the houston texans finished a season with an 8-8 record.
no, they didn't make the playoffs...
true, only one player made the pro bowl.
but it's not a losing record. mario williams has silenced the critics with the second most sacks in the nfl this year.
and next year....if we're healthy....i think the playoffs are a definite possibility.
but enjoy the .500 season, boys. ya done good.
oh...and the new england patriots won a hard-fought victory over the new york giants last night to finish a perfect season. 16-0.
whatever...i hate the patriots. brady is a republican and a pig. and they still cheat.
Friday, December 28, 2007
msnbc's mika brzezinski this morning reported on hillbilly huckabee's rise in the recent la times/bloomberg poll. referring to his poll ascent as a "comeback."
ummm....mika. do you understand that you have to be ahead in the polls....then fall in the polls... then regain ground in the polls.... in order for it to be a comeback?
you can't just move ahead and term it a comeback. that's a "rise" in the polls, sweetie.
today begins the three days of mourning following the assassination of former pakistani prime minister, benazir bhutto.
it may seem like this took place a world away...but it will affect everyone.
keep an eye on the news... riots have begun. marshall law will probably be issued again. al qaeda will feel strengthened.... the bush administration will become more paranoid.
on simplistic terms.... gas will rise.
bhutto's past was allegedly checkered, yes. but she was the best bet for a moderate pakistan.
the loss of her life will be felt by everyone.
keep an eye on pakistan.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
after taking a couple days off from campaigning in recognition of the birth of someone or other.... the candidates are back on the trail.
most candidates are in iowa... would make sense.
but ole "make no sense" giuliani is in florida.... still working towards his tsunami tuesday strategy. and john "hope is on the way" edwards is in new hampshire.
it's all very odd.... meanwhile....new polls seems to be out every day. so let's break down some interesting party polls.
first off...let's take a moment to appreciate the rapid decline of rudy's campaign. at once holding a strong 18 point lead in national polls, mr. "i've spent more time at ground zero" giuliani is now barely holding on to a 3-point lead (he's tied with romney in the most recent nbc poll).
in iowa....the momentum train that is huckabee continues to glide - ahead as much as 6 or 8 points in certain polls. but the magnificent lead he held towards the beginning of december has trailed off and romney has regained some ground.
meanwhile....if thompson ever had any momentum.... i simply can't find it.
in new hampshire.... mccain is making a helluva comeback and only trails romney by 3 points in the lated globe poll.
it's really crazy.... i'm not sure mccain can pull off such a stunning comeback and win the nomination...but if he does - he's the one republican i'm truly fearful that a dem could possibly not beat. i'm still thinking the nod will go to romney or huckabee.... but it's still an open race.
of course...ole flip-flop mitt continues to attack huckabee and everyone seems to be largely ignoring everyone else.
and while we're discussing romney, let's take a look back for our...
meet the press quote of the week (december 16, 2007)
i thought romney handled himself rather well.... of course, it all depends on what your definition of "saw" is.... but he maintained his composure and fared rather well against mr. russert. far batter than rudy, at any rate.
but when asked about the issue that has plagued him most in recent weeks...illegal immigration....he missed an opportunity to really clear up the misunderstanding. russert mentioned a very damning article about flip-flop's gardening company and their use of illegal immigrants. mr. romney was adament! "i have to clear up the most egregious error in that article," he began. this was it! tell us the truth!
it says my house is pink. i would not have a pink house, i assure you.
yes....with your constant change on abortion rights, gun rights, gay rights.... with the questions surrounding your misstatements and mormonism and use of illegal immigrants.... the possible insuation that you're a fag by having a pink house... THAT'S egregous.
meet the press quote of the week (december 23, 2007)
i have to stick with romney for a moment.... ron paul was tim's guest this past weekend and he came across as a total buffoon. unaware of statistics, caught talking down about big government, but introducing goverment earmarks...but then voting against the very earmarks he introduced because he knew they were safe for his constituency with enough votes to pass so he could stand by his libertarian credentials and say "i voted against big government!"
ron paul is a joke and if you're considering a vote for paul...you're a moron. grow up.
but the quote of the week goes to john harwood and this little nugget about flip-flop mitt (on the topic of him "seeing" his father march with MLK):
if you look at the way mitt romney's run his campaign, there's plenty to criticize. those of us old enough to remember "leave it to beaver" sometimes see eddie haskell in mitt romney going to every constituency group and saying, "you look so lovely, mrs. cleaver."
the democrats - or - hillary's on the rise
when looking at the average of all the recent polls in iowa....realclearpolitics.com shows hillary clinton has regained the lead with an average of 1.9 points ahead of obama. not much, i know... but the latest american research group poll actually has hill ahead by 14 points.
clinton has also seen a slight bump in new hampshire where she maintains a slight lead over obama.
it still comes down to this: if hillary wins iowa - she wins it all. if she comes in second to edwards - she probably goes on to win it all.
if obama wins iowa.... well, then we might have some problems.
but edwards has the most experienced caucus goers behind him in iowa so that bolds well for his chances. if my girl can't take iowa....i'd much rather her lose to johnny boy.
but all the national polls still show that obama and clinton can beat every republican nominee (with the possible exception of mccain - which is why he scares me).
let's talk endorsements
i'll try to keep this short....i know i'm running long. mccain has been garnering most of the respectable and important newspaper endorsements on the GOP side: des moines register and boston globe among them.
hillary gained the des moines register endorsement (they endorsed edwards in '04 - ouch!) while obama won the globe endorsement.
meanwhile, mitt romney received a rare anti-endorsement from the concord monitor which called romney “a disquieting figure who sure looks like the next president and most surely must be stopped.”
gotta love that..... poor mitt. thank god he's pretty.
interesting side note:
richard baehr has an article that talks about hillary's possible running mate should she win the nomination. there's been a lot of talk about someone with a military background - general wesley clark or senator jim webb. but baehr mentioned both their recent stints with foot in mouth disease.... so he's thrown out the name of former nebraska governor and senator bob kerrey - most recently of the new school and the 9/11 commission.
interesting... he did just come out and endorse hill in iowa the other week.
thank buddha all the christmas nosense is over and we can get back to politics, huh?
go hillary! play it smart the next 8 days.....
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
clooney and day-lewis have become fixtures on this list. interesting to see hirsch and no tom hanks. the guild, however, tends to make some better - lesser known - choices than the oscars. into the wild is also directed by sean penn.... very popular with the guild. mortensen and gosling have also been popping up...but is eastern promises to long ago to remember and has anyone seen lars and the real girl? oddly enough, clooney currently seems the one to beat.
thrilled to see most lists remembering back to away from her and nominating christie. likewise, cotillard. both give amazing performances. nice momentum for page and i see her making it all the way the oscars. blanchett and jolie's names continue to appear... but will they make it to the big show? is it possible for blanchett to score a nod for a film considered so poor? of course, voters seem to believe she can do no wrong... she's the new meryl streep... nominated for everything she does.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
this appears to be bardem's year....and it's way past due. holbrook continues to make the cut (given what is said to be the performance of his career) - but is he simply caught up in the wild momentum with the SAGs? i'd love to see jones make the oscars and affleck seems to be a shoe-in for a nod as robert ford.... his incredible performance in gone baby gone can only help. but i really see bardem winning everything this year... and from what i've seen - well deserved.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ahhh...my favorite category. blanchett scores another nod... and she is the one lock for the academy awards, as well. amy ryan has also appeared on nearly every critic's list. swinton and keener are rather new to lists... and dee gets her first mention that i've seen. this is a nice list... i'm sad to say i've only seen one nomination.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
hairspray clearly garnering the birdcage nomination of the year. people love to equate this category with best picture but it rarely correlates. it's kind of a bullshit category - especially when you have birdcage winning one year. then you have amazing casts like glengarry glenn ross winning... now that's a cast!
i'm getting excited.... at last!
of course, the next big question is this: will any actor dare cross the picket lines to attend an awards show this season.....?
i love unions... i'm pro-union. and i think the writers have every cause to strike.
but suddenly they're fucking with my awards season and that shit will piss me off. but we still have some time. until then....
unite, brothers! unite!
Monday, December 17, 2007
his 3.5-sack effort against denver helped the texans get back to .500 with a 31-14 [NOTE: i keep seeing this incorrect score, but i digress...] win over the broncos on thursday night. if you watch williams now, you see a rusher playing with the confidence of a michael strahan. with 13 sacks in 14 games, williams ranks second in the NFL in that category, behind only patrick kerney.
5. i used to feel uncomfortable looking at cheerleaders... i kinda liked it thursday night. i'm worried.
Monday, December 10, 2007
isn't it funny how, looking back at the 2006 draft, we all laughed at houston for even suggesting mario williams was better than vince young? who's laughing now?
trying to do the math...i'm still wondering if we can end the season at .500.
"it's all about me."
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
they call me the headhunter....cuz my pussy's so tight it'll rip yo' dick right off.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Monday, December 3, 2007
it's a word a lot of people here (in iowa) do not like... the sense that hillary clinton was the inevitable candidate did not go down easy with a lot of voters that i spoke with. they don't want to be told that their votes don't count. they want to know...that they play an important role in this process.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Monday, November 26, 2007
i spent the evening finishing the cleaning of the house and baking a beautiful, double-crust apple pie. i also made my mother's celery and sage dressing.
Monday, November 19, 2007
huge applause... and the rest of the night just went her way.
when obama tried to defend his potential tax hike to help social security, he twice said "tax break." hillary came back and corrected him: "i think you mean tax increase, because that's what it would be." she listens.
- what was with all the pre-debate analysis during the beginning of the debate time? how many hours did cnn have beforehand? oh - that's right. 24 hours.
- edwards first statement of the debate was: "nobody on this stage is perfect." john, give it up.
- enough with the canned answers! richardson's first answer was so canned it was pathetic. and edwards' "is that a planted question" remark was so out of place it just fell flat. there was no laughter.
- the first question to biden was 10 minutes in. he was the first candidate besides obama, clinton and edwards to speak.
- 20 minutes in kucinich got a sentence into the conversation...but still no direct question.
- 28 minutes in - the first question went directly to dodd.
- 30 minutes in, wolf blitzer piggy-backed a question on unions to kucinich.
- 50 minutes in, kucinich is asked the first question initially directed specifically to him.
- john roberts asks some really good questions. maybe he should moderate a debate on his own?
- dodd gave a great response on teacher "merit pay."
- happy birthday, governor richardson. when you blew out your candles, i hope you wished for better stage presence.
- i still don't think obama should be allowed to make any comments on the iran vote when he didn't even bother to show up (and he gave such a weak answer to why he wasn't there. "umm... i was running for president." yeah - so are clinton, dodd and biden.)
- kucinich has it out for edwards. he nailed him all night long.
- richardson shut down kucinich light an annoying gnat when he told him to stop lumping him in with the other candidates. he's not in congress, he reminded dennis.
- kucinich was really angry this debate. came across more bizarre than usual.
- chris dodd has tiny feet.
- biden mentioned potential impeachment of bush if he invades iran.
- an hour and half in, kucinich mentioned impeachment.
- apparently obama watches nbc nightly news and saw brokaw's interview with warren buffett.
- the audience portion of the debate really dragged. lose it.
- dodd said "here" 25 times. i doubt he got 25 minutes worth of air time.
meet the press quote of the week (a catch up)
i don't think we should be armchair generals...when we have people on the ground who apparently now know what they're doing.
i have admiration for senator clinton. i think she's a fine public servant. the reason i'm running is because i think we're at a unique moment in history right now. the nation's at war, our planet is in peril. we've got a series of decisions that we're gonna have to make and i believe i can more effectively, than any other candidate in this race, bring the country together, overcome some of the same old arguments we've been having since the 1990's and that i can reach out to the republicans and independents more effectively...
i think the obama folks know they had a bad night. the edwards folks had a really bad night. and this is just one night, but if he starts fading too quickly...that's actually not good for clinton. the quicker this is a two person race, the better for obama.
but my quote of the week goes to ron brownstein of the national journal, who provided this nugget:
not a leaf will fall in the forest between now and iowa and new hampshire without obama and edwards looking for a way to make this into a contrast with hillary clinton because that is ultimately what you have to do against a frontrunner.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
you can tell those stupid cunts [details removed to protect the innocent]... filthy, little wetbacks. they all need to go back to hell where they’re all living. and those sorry-ass preachers… wait till I make an appearance there in church next sunday. make those motherfuckers get down on the floor like dogs in heat.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
An Obama spokesman, Ben LaBolt, last week declined to say where Obama's records from his years in the Illinois State Senate are located. There is no law mandating the state to archive the records. The records from Obama's office -- if he kept them -- would potentially show appointments with lobbyists, policy memos, meetings, etc.
Sen. Barack Obama has missed the most votes of any Democratic presidential hopeful in the Senate over the last two months, including a vote on an Iran resolution he has blasted Sen. Hillary Clinton for supporting.
The Illinois Democrat has missed nearly 80 percent of all votes since September.
Monday, November 5, 2007
believe me, my lovelies, when i say to you it took every ounce of restraint for me not to reply, "do you need some help?"
- the texans actually defeated the oakland raiders this weekend with schaub on the bench at the start of the game. that makes houston 4-5 going into the bye. i'm really hoping they can make their way to .500 this year.
- lsu and texas are some lucky motherfuckers. both teams should have more losses than they do. the tigers, in particular, were lucky this weekend. and that shift attempt to pull the crimson tide offsides was just cheap football.
- go ducks! i want oregon to play for the national title. (don't tell my lsu-alum sister-in-law.)
- peter king's monday morning QB on sportsillustrated.com has become one of the highlights of my week. if you're a football fan and you don't read this column, do yourself a favor.
- i'm not eating enough vegetables. i can't seem to get enough chips, however.... not good - and my body is starting to revolt.
- i've decided my christmas colors are blue and silver. very classy, i think.
- i'm not sure how the situation in pakistan is going to play out - but it kinda scares the shit out of me. its estimated the country has 30 nukes.... if you don't think the leader of that country has great ramifications on this country, think again.
- brian williams was kinda funny on SNL. too bad SNL isn't very funny.
- i have to get rid of my leftover halloween candy... this is not a good situation for me.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
i thought brian williams did a nice job of showing that his five nights behind the big desk has given him a wide range of information from which to mine questions.
tim russert continued to use quotes and statistics from the candidates themselves to frame his questions.
so who won? conventional wisdom says as long as hillary clinton doesn't make any major stumbles, she wins. but did she stumble? did obama draw the blood he promised in the times over the weekend?
let's break it down.
i think that was pretty clear... at least from my standpoint. he took the chris matthews approach and drew clear distinctions between himself and the front runner: hillary clinton.
his attacks were strong.... his distinctions clear.
he hammered and hammered and hammered away at clinton and took any spotlight away from obama.
will the attacks hurt him or help him?
i think his constant return to the theme of clinton's "double talk" may resonate. especially after something unforeseen happened with just a few moments remaining in the debate.
it was a simple question. only two minutes or so left in the debate. russert asked my girl about governor spitzer's plan to issue driver's license to illegal immigrants in new york. she said she supported his idea...or it seemed like a good plan.
then chris dodd went off....
then it happened. hillary backtracked and said she wouldn't necessarily support it.
why? why, hillary? you had this thing in the bag.....
edwards immediately pounced and said she just gave two different answers in a matter of two minutes. "double talk."
hillary had fended off attack after attack so well all night... she was particularly strong early in the evening. but as howard fineman of newsweek pointed out: she "came off like a politician."
a clinton stumble...... well, fuck me.
biden covered her ass a bit in the post analysis on msnbc saying she was clearly not decisive but held off on calling it "double talk."
his attacks were there...but they were subtle. he had a particularly strong moment when he called out hillary to release all correspondence between she and bill clinton during his presidency from the clinton archives. he said we're coming out of the most secretive administration in history. americans want transparency. he also said if she's running on her experience in the white house as first lady - why not release the records?
it was a good point......
no big surprise....joe biden. during a series of answers to a question about rudy giuliani doubting the experience of clinton and the other dem candidates.... biden said nobody is less experienced to run the country than bush but rudy giuliani.
then his great line: "rudy giuliani...there's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun and a verb and 9/11."
most bizarre moment, i
first off...who knew shirley maclaine was a godmother to one of dennis kucinich's children? secondly, in all seriousness, russert asked kucinich about an episode maclaine recounts in her new book that he saw a UFO and it was a deeply moving experience for him.
kucinich? yep....he saw it. freely admits it.
jesus...the man can't win.
most bizarre moment, ii
bill richardson defended hillary. he said other candidates were acting "holier than thou" and the attacks were boardering on personal. he said he trusts hillary...but he disagrees with her on big issues.
that's where the debate should be, argues bill. save the attacks for the republicans... keep the democratic debate positive.
well done, sir. i hope you get the v.p. job (if obama doesn't want it).
best spontaneous moment
when asked if he believes in life beyond earth, obama chuckled and then said, "i don't know... but i do know there's life here on earth." and then went on about how we need to take care of people in the united states that have been ignored too long.
it was a strong moment... one of his best.
- the first question went to obama - directly asking him about his plans to attack clinton.
- the next twenty minutes were spent on obama and edwards attacking hillary and she fighting them off.
- dodd also got in on attacking hillary. she handled it great...very strong in her answers.
- i still think hillary has the best body language. she's engaged when others answer. she nods and shakes her head. she smiles. i think it shows a great deal of confidence.
- the first question posed to bill richardson was 21 minutes into the debate.
- first question to kucinich? 22 minutes in.
- where was that ole kook, mike gravel?
- kucinich mentioned impeaching bush 3 times throughout the night.
- kucinich is very passionate about HR-676.
- bill richardson, bless him, just doesn't handle lightening rounds very well.
- this was clearly dodd's best performance in a debate.
- chris matthews clearly does not like hillary clinton and it's really starting to piss me off.
hillary...you're still my girl. now go clear up your stance on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.
a state's issue.... causing hill to stumble....
Monday, October 29, 2007
"invade & bomb with hillary and rahm."