Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

black swan
the fighter
inception
the kids are all right
the king's speech
127 hours
the social network
toy story 3
true grit
winter's bone

well, tonight's the big night. gay christmas. the 83rd annual academy awards. or as they call it in billy crystal's house: passover.

it's a busy day for me so i tend to short-shrift best picture a bit. but there are some easy disqualifications to make.

you cannot take a best picture nomination seriously if they do not have a corresponding best director nod. so.... say bye-bye to inception, the kids are all right, 127 hours, toy story 3 and winter's bone. without a director... it's just not gonna happen.

i think the 10 nominees is idiocy.... but we have them. the only upside is that brilliant films like winter's bone can snag a nomination when they might normally be too small for the academy to remember.

so we're left with five serious nominees. of those, only the social network and the king's speech have a chance.

the social network has won every. single. critic's. award. you. can. win.

it is the best film of the year. as i said last night.... it's fresh, it's solid... it's of our time. it's built on one of the best screenplays we've had in years. (by the way, aaron sorkin will win best adapted screenplay for network. just watch the first 8 minutes of the film... pure word masturbation. it's genius.)

but the king's speech has won the one award (well, two) that might matter the most. the big one is the producers guild of america award. the PGA winner has most likely always gone on to win best picture at the oscars. (in fact, they've matched up 75% of the time over the years.)

hooper also won the director's guild and, as previously discussed, that generally means he'll go on to win the best director oscar. the winner of the best director oscar almost always takes home the gold for best picture, as well.

they do differ from time to time. but in the past 30 years, the picture/director split has only occurred SIX times. the last time was 2005 when crash undeservedly won best picture but ang lee won director for brokeback mountain.

i'm reading a lot of chatter about a picture/director split this year. it's not normally predicted but the theory appears to have a following this year.

i adore the king's speech. i think it's a nearly perfect film. i will be thrilled if it wins best picture. but i simply see the social network as the better film.

but.... i don't see it taking home both director and picture.

so.... a split. (just to make things even more interesting.)

will win: the king's speech
should win: the social network

and i leave you now with my beloved liza minnelli singing my favorite oscar song: "oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!"

happy oscars!

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

darren aronofsky, black swan
david o. russell, the fighter
tom hooper, the king's speech
david fincher, the social network
joel & ethan coen, true grit

okay, kiddies... it's getting late and i still have a shitload to accomplish this evening in pre-prep for tomorrow.

so let's just cut to the chase, shall we? (get it? "cut"? director...? nevermind.)

so the coen brothers just recently won for no country for old men. (great film. seriously... check it out.) too soon for them to win again. as awesome as true grit is. (and you'll probably never hear me say this about any other film: better than the original.)

darren aronofsky remains too out there, i think, to win. plus.... it's his first nomination. david o. russell stunned a lot of oscar watchers with his nomination. also... first one. won't win.

this is really a two way race: fincher v. hooper.

now. this is fincher's second nomination for best director. he was last nominated for the highly overrated the curious case of benjamin button.

this is hooper's first nomination.

so i seem to want to discount first-time nominees, right? wrong! i mean... it happens. especially if you were an actor first. (see redford, costner, eastwood, gibson.)

BUT. and this is a HUGE "but." hooper won the director's guild award for the king's speech. the DGA, people.

in the 63 years of the director's guild, the winner has NOT gone on to win the oscar only.....SIX time. six, people.

now, this has happened twice since 2000. the first time in 2000 when ang lee won the DGA for crouching tiger, hidden dragon but lost the oscar to steven soderbergh for traffic. and the last time in 2002 when rob marshall won the DGA for chicago but lost the gold to roman polanski on oscar night for his direction of the pianist.

so all indications would lead one to think hooper has the oscar in the bag, yes?

well..... david fincher has won every single critics' award leading up to the DGA for his superb direction of the social network. he won the golden globe. he even won the BAFTA (the british equivalent of the academy award...) over brit, hooper.

i don't really know what to say? both films are exceptional. both directors are worthy. i.... well, i lean towards the social network and fincher. i find the direction fresh and inventive. it feels very much of our time. and... it's flawless.

so... while the safe money is on hooper, i'm going out on a limb here, people. "no guts, no glory," as the man says. i'm predicting fincher to take home the oscar. yes.... a split from the DGA and, perhaps, a split from the ultimate winner of best picture.

but that's tomorrow.

will win: david fincher, the social network
should win: david fincher, the social network

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

the nominees for best actor are:

javier bardem, biutiful
jeff bridges, true grit
jesse eisenberg, the social network
colin firth, the king's speech
james franco, 127 hours

a little old.... a little new in this category. we have jeff bridges scoring his sixth nomination and, of course, he won for the first time in last year's crazy heart. bardem has scored his third nomination and firth scored his second. of course, barden already won for 2007's brilliant no country for old men. firth's first nomination came just last year when he lost to fellow nominee, jeff bridges.

meanwhile..... jesse eisenberg and james franco both score their first nods.

let's go ahead and count out the two, first time nominees. i think franco is very good in a small film very few people could stomach the idea of watching. it's a nomination to reward his talent... and for not nominating him previously for milk.

eisenberg could win if there's a big push for the social network. but it appears the king's speech has taken the wind out of facebook's sails. (more on that in another post.)

i also don't see jeff bridges winning a second oscar the year after just winning his first. only nine actors in the 83 year history of the academy awards have won two best actor oscars... and only two in consecutive years (spencer tracy and tom hanks).

javier bardem also has an uphill battle if he hopes to win for biutiful. not only has he already won an oscar recently.... but the last and only time the best actor statue went to a foreign language film performance was 1997. roberto benigni upset the entire oscar telecast (and, more importantly....me!) when he won for that piece of shit film, life is beautiful. i'm still trying to figure that one out and occasionally wake up with lingering night terrors recalling the moment.

(incidentally, the only other foreign language film performance to win an oscar is sophia loren, best actress - two women. some consider robert deniro's supporting actor win for the godfather, part 2 a foreign language performance win. which it is... except for one line he exclusively speaks italian. but the film is not considered a foreign language film.)

but i digress.......

if i was comfortable calling any category a lock, it would be best actor. sooooo.... i'm saying it's a lock. and it appears to be a lock like most acting categories. even though i've said the other categories could very possibly see an upset. however... this appears to be the most solid lock and the one i'd put the most money on.

colin firth..... long overlooked for a long career of great performances, has scored his second oscar nod this year. a year after he probably should have won for a single man but.... well, who could say "no" to finally awarding jeff bridges his oscar? crazy heart wasn't great.... but it was time. (see it like al pacino finally winning for the pretty awful film, scent of a woman.)

but colin firth has been on a roll winning awards for the king's speech. not only has he won every british award, he's also picked up critics awards from chicago, florida, kansas city, L.A., san francisco, D.C. and the golden globes. he also snagged the much coveted screen actors guild.

and most importantly: he deserves to win for this performance this year. firth's king is cold and prickly... but he's also endearing and afraid... he is all of us. and we want him to succeed and that is the driving force and the power behind this film. without the audience wanting firth to say that next word without hesitation is the key to the entire film. and firth makes us all want that.

it's an amazing performance. both emotionally and technically. beyond his stuttering. his perfect timing in line delivery. pay attention to his lazy r's. the soft pallet of a man with a speech impediment. it's masterful.

firth should and will win. so.......

will win: colin firth, the king's speech
should win: colin firth, the king's speech

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

annette bening, the kids are all right
nicole kidman, rabbit hole
jennifer lawrence, winter's bone
natalie portman, black swan
michelle williams, blue valentine

poor annette bening. poor, always-the-bridesmaid-never-the-bride, annette bening.

sorry, i'm getting ahead of myself.

best actress appears to be another two-way race with an obvious front runner. could there be an upset? perhaps? but at this point it seems unlikely. unless... well, again. i'm getting ahead of myself.

let's start again with who will not win:

nicole kidman already has an oscar for the hours.... it's an award she didn't really deserve but it was to recognize a larger, overlooked body of work. (keep this in mind.) an award for a body of work does happen from time to time. (but it used to happen much more often than it does now.) rabbit hole was a quiet little film that nobody saw and kidman will not win again for this film. nobody saw the amazing performance michelle williams delivered in blue valentine either. both kidman and williams delivered layered, heartbreaking performances in both of these films and deserve the nominations.... but they will not win.

jennifer lawrence carried winter's bone and her performance at such a young age promises many great things from her in the future. winter's bone was feared to be overlooked come the oscar nods - but it did very well scoring three very big nominations. the film was not widely seen but critically adored. lawrence, in particular. some might say she's a dark horse but i see this more as a nod to her talent and encouragement to continue.

no... the race comes down to bening and portman. poor, unrewarded annette bening.

bening has three previous nominations under her belt: 2004's being julia, 1999's american beauty and 1990's the grifters. the grifters (a movie i adore... check it out) was her only supporting nod. the other two previous nominations were in the lead category. both years bening appeared to be a lock for best actress. then hillary swank came along and delivered performances in million dollar baby and boys don't cry that not only deserved to win the oscar.... but did. upsetting bening both times.

now we have the young natalie portman delivering a tour de force performance in black swan. portman is so very good in swan. her metamorphosis is haunting and terrifying... it doesn't hurt that she spent a year training for the role.... losing weight, toning a dancer's body, learning ballet itself. the academy eats up this shit. (think of bobby deniro packing on the weight for raging bull.) pushing your body for a performance is highly regarded and often rewarded. especially if the performance is worthy.

having said all this.... there is a moment in the kids are all right when annette bening slowly sits down at a dinner table after the "revelation" of the film. the full understanding of everything that has proceeded this moment washes over her face and registers in her eyes, her mouth, her skin. without saying a word... bening delivers a moment more powerful than the entire portman performance in black swan. and i should point out... i'm not a huge fan of the kids are all right. but bening is perfection.

bening is pitch perfect and at the height of her craft in kids. she deserves to win this year. not like those other years when she was really, really great.... but not as good as..... this year should be her year.

but she will most likely lose to another young actress, ms. portman. portman’s role is simply more showy, more dramatic, more the academy’s speed (despite the bizarre nature of the film).

portman has picked up awards from the boston, chicago, dallas-fort worth, florida and kansas city critics. she has also picked up the golden globe and the biggie: the screen actor's guild. bening, of course, also picked up a globe but in the comedy/musical category. rarely as highly regarded as winning in the dramatic category.

the academy could decide bening has delivered over 20 years of incredible, indelible performances. perhaps an acknowledgement of her body of work will catapult her to a victory? i hold my breath with anticipation.

but i'm also allowing myself to gasp for air from time to time because, well.... i'm a realist.

will win: natalie portman, black swan
should win: annette bening, the kids are all right

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

the nominees for best supporting actor are:

christian bale, the fighter
john hawkes, winter's bone
jeremy renner, the town
mark ruffalo, the kids are all right
geoffrey rush, the king's speech

okay, so i teased about a lock in the best supporting actress category yesterday... and it does appear to be a lock there. well, here... in supporting actor.... i think we pretty much have a lock.

let's knock out those we know aren't winning first, shall we? in order of least likely to win....

jeremy renner's nomination for the town seems residual glory from last year's the hurt locker phenom. sometimes the academy is so impressed by an individual one year their every subsequent performance (for a time) seems to be on their radar. renner is very, very good in the town. but it's no a gold-worthy performance and this is more of a further nod to his acting chops.

first time nominee john hawkes is extremely good in winter's bone. his teardrop epitomizes everything great about the film: he's at once terrifying and heartbreaking. you fear him one moment but are surprised by his humanity the next. in a bigger film, he would be a stronger contender... but winter's bone is the little movie that could and has done well with several nominations in the big six categories. but hawkes will not win here. but look out for this actor in the future.

the kids are all right seemed to be the juggernaut earlier in the year... but the film has cooled (rightfully so, in my opinion) and ruffalo's star has darkened. another first-time nominee, ruffalo gives the type of performance the academy does love. charming and lovable but, ultimately, a cad..... in a weaker year he could have been a bigger part of the conversation. and if the academy is looking for a way to reward the film, ruffalo is a possibility.

but what we really have here is a two-way race with what looks like a near lock for christian bale.

geoffrey rush turns in another type of performance that oscar loves. rush's lionel logue is extraordinary. warm, funny..... he provides strength for the other characters and, well, supports them. it is the quintessential supporting role. and it doesn't hurt that rush is genius in it. if the king's speech sweeps through the academy awards this year, rush could easily win for this performance. it would be rush's second win (he won best actor for 1996's shine) and it's his fourth overall nomination (he was also previously nominated for shakespeare in love and quills). many would argue, me included, that this talented performer deserves a second oscar.

but then there's dicky.

christian bale has long been admired as a versatile actor. he's been able to successfully tackle smaller, dramatic roles along with big box office action films. he has turned out one memorable performance after another.... yet the fighter is his first nomination. and it's one helluva performance.

dicky is charming and charismatic.... he is also pathetic and frustrating. bale steals the show in a film overpopulated with memorable characters. he has won the critic's choice awards from boston, chicago, dallas-fort worth, florida, kansas city, the national board of review, the broadcast film critics (the actual "critic's choice award"), as well as the golden globe and the screen actor's guild.

bale will become another stat in a long list of first-time nominees who win for a long-overlooked career on the screen.

will win: christian bale, the fighter
should win: geoffrey rush, the king's speech

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

the nominees for best supporting actress are:

amy adams, the fighter
helena bonham carter, the king's speech
melissa leo, the fighter
hailee steinfeld, true grit
jacki weaver, animal kingdom

i wanted to start with my favorite category this year: best supporting actress. this category has always provided some of the biggest surprises and upsets in oscar history. marisa tomei over judy davis. anna paquin over winona ryder and rosie perez. juliette binoche over lauren bacall in what looked like a certain lifetime achievement win.

but this year..... best supporting actress seems almost a lock.

all signs point to a melissa leo running away with the award for her frenetic turn as alice, the controlling and not-so-lovable mother in the fighter. she has won several major critics awards including the new york film critics and the broadcast film critics (or critic's choice award). most recently she's won the golden globe and the screen actor's guild.

she even has a previous nomination under her belt in the best actress category for 2009's frozen river. and academy members love to vote for nominees when they feel have earned their win by having one or two prior nods.

so how could she not win when all momentum seems behind her.....?

well, supporting actress could easily offer another upset this year. how is this possible, you ask? well, there's a lot of talk about another potential upset due to...... splitting the vote.

the one individual who does not seem to be in this discussion is aussie, jacki weaver. her janine is a slow burn through much of animal kingdom but she really turns out a brilliant and terrifying performance if you stick with it and truly understand everything her characters has done by the end of the film. but despite a couple of very high-level critic's wins (including the LA film critics) the film was not widely seen and her character does fly under the radar for most of the movie.

but let's looks at how vote splitting could work.

there's helena bonham carter. could vote splitting between two nominees from the same movie, combined with the momentum of the king's speech, carry her to victory? it's possible. carter does have a prior nomination for 1997's wings of the dove (best actress) and she is the stoic weight of the king's speech. and there's always this: the academy loves the supportive spouse.

amy adams could win if steinfeld and leo, the two contenders seen as the most likely winners, split academy votes. and adams does have a track record with the academy and gives a very solid performance in the fighter.... most importantly stretching her acting chops with a character outside her normal cute and naive range.

but adams and leo could also split the fighter votes which might lead to steinfeld winning for her magnificent debut performance in true grit. steinfeld could join the likes of tatum o'neal and anna paquin..... two young actresses who appear in every scene of a movie (or nearly every) but are relegated to the supporting ranks because of their age. the lead-ness of their performances also help bolster their potential win.

i would also argue that steinfeld deserves the win. she delivers a nuanced and understated performance far beyond her years. at fourteen, she could become one of the youngest oscar winners in the 83 year history of the awards.

(for trivia lovers: 10 year old tatum o'neal remains the youngest winner for her 1973 best supporting actress win for paper moon. the aforementioned paquin comes in second at 11 years old for her supporting win in 1993's the piano.)

steinfeld's performance is not as showy and leo seems to have all the momentum heading into the oscars..... but look for a very potential upset here. however, my gut tells me all signs point to one eventual winner. so.....

will win: melissa leo, the fighter
should win: hailee steinfeld, true grit

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

happy oscar day, my lovelies! let's get right to the big one...

the nominees for best picture are:

--avatar
--the blind side
--district 9
--an education
--the hurt locker
--inglourious basterds
--precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
--a serious man
--up
--up in the air

okay.... i'm taking time out from cooking for my big oscar to-do. so i gotta make this short and sweet, my darling readers. it's not that i don't love you... it's just there's spinach & artichoke dip and stuffed mushroom caps to make.

let's begin my knocking out the obvious (and stating the obvious). ten best picture nominees is stupid. take the five without a corresponding director nod out and you have your five REAL best picture nominees left.

so take away up, a serious man, an education, district 9 and the blind side. no directors. no way they're gonna win.

(interesting side note: up is only the second animated film to be nominated for best picture. the first? nope... not snow white & the seven dwarfs. it was 1989's beauty and the beast.)

so let's look at the five remaining best picture nominees.

precious. out. sorry...just not gonna win.

up in the air... i've gone on and on about the loss of momentum for this film. at one time, i really thought it was the winner. and i hated that idea. not that it's a bad film... it's just not best picture material.

inglourious basterds? i think tarantino is still a bit too outside the box for academy voters. he may be a scorsese.... a couple of decades worth of nominations before he and his picture win.

that leaves us with the horse race (kinda).

avatar vs. the hurt locker.

the hurt locker should win... it's the superior film. but an odd new oscar voting system may give avatar a leg up. if a picture does not win over 50% of the first ballot... then the academy moves on to people's second choice. and so on and so on until somebody has over 50%.

it's idiotic. i think i'll change next year.

it gives avatar a chance.

but i still think the hurt locker will take home the big prize tonight. it's already won a string of awards including the biggie: the producers guild for best picture.

keeping it short and sweet, my lovelies.

will win: the hurt locker
should win: the hurt locker

e.

p.s. oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

james cameron, avatar
kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
quentin tarantino, inglourious basterds
lee daniels, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
jason reitman, up in the air

okay... i don't want to take up a lot of your time here. and i can't even be sly because once i begin using pronouns to dance around my prediction, you'll know...

so let's just say that kathryn bigelow has two... no three.... BIG things going for her this year: 1) she's won the director's guild award (DGA). 2) she'll make history as the first woman to ever win best director and the academy loves to make history. and 3) she deserves to win!

lee daniels is out. let's get that out of the way. yes, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire is very good. but he won't win. a black man can be president... but in this category, a woman can win first.

tarantino needs to win an oscar and will soon.... but he won't here. he is still glorified more for his writing than his directing. but he's superb at both.

jason reitman appeared primed to win for up in the air. he was just nominated recently for juno and it looked as if all momentum was pushing his film to multiple wins... including best picture.

that momentum has flat-lined.

really.... the race is between james cameron and his ex-wife, bigelow. cameron won the oscar for best director for the last feature film he directed: 1997's titanic.

he could win for avatar. but i see everything pushing bigelow into the gold on sunday night.

bigelow becomes only the fourth woman to be nominated for best director..... in over 80 years of best director nominations! sofia coppola was nominated for 2003's lost in translation. italian director lina wertmüller was nominated in 1976 for seven beauties. and new zealand's jane campion was nominated for the piano in 1993.

as i mentioned... the academy loves to make history. and finally crowning a woman as best director would be a HUGE statement.

bigelow also won the DGA. since the DGA was first given out in 1948, only SIX TIMES has the DGA winner differed from the eventual best director oscar winner.

but beyond all that... bigelow deserves to win. the hurt locker is a brilliant study of the tension inherent in a war zone. and bigelow shows an immense patience in telling her story.

most directors today would have a lot of quick edits and shaky, steady-cam shots zooming in and out and around the action. here... bigelow allows her camera to tell the story.... not pump up the story.

take the amazing scene where the soldiers come across snipers in the middle of the desert. there's a fire fight. lives are lost. then all grows quiet. a lesser director cuts away. or only stays briefly.... providing all answers immediately. but that's not war. and that's not what bigelow has shot.

here.... she leaves the camera on the soldiers. waiting. unsure. are the snipers still alive? are we safe? should we even move?

she has the patience to play the scene out. allow the tension to rise. let the soldiers suffer, wonder and fear.... just as we do.

she has made an action movie that is not in a rush to tell the story... but is interested in its characters and the slow revelations of the story. and, yes, of the danger.... and the tension...

it is confident and thrilling filmmaking. and bigelow deserves to take home the oscar as the first woman to ever win best director.

will win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
should win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

sandra bullock, the blind side
helen mirren, the last station
carey mulligan, an education
gabourey sidibe, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
meryl streep, julie & julia

this year's best actress category is a two-way race. unfortunately.... that race is between the two wrong women.

the two best performances given this year among these five nominees is between the two new faces: carey mulligan and gabourey sidibe.

sidibe is heartbreaking as precious. but she also shows a strength in the character that always seems to peek through all the abuse, the ignorance and the sadness. in almost any other year she would be my choice for best actress...

but this year there's carey mulligan. her jenny is this year's poppy (sally hawkins in happy-go-lucky) for me. luckily... the academy didn't fuck up this year and nominated mulligan for an education. (yes, i remain bitter over the hawkins snub.)

mulligan's jenny experiences her social, intellectual and sexual awakening on screen before our very eyes...... and we experience and feel every one of those journeys with her. she brings a depth of character rarely accomplished by older actors. joy, pleasure.... the exhilaration of the first-time. not just with sex... but with jazz and paris. it's all there... in mulligan's damn fine performance.

she is both smart and naive. sly but innocent. she is easily my choice for best actress...

but she is not in the race.

neither is helen mirren who seems to have luckily snagged a nomination for her tedious work in the last station. and, mind you, i don't blame mirren... there's only so much you can do with that role.

and let's not forget: mirren just won an oscar for 2006's the queen. so it's also too soon for her to win again.

so who does that leave? oh, yes... the two least deserving winners in the bunch: meryl streep (scoring her 16th nomination) for julie & julia.... a movie that would have been twice as good without the julie. and sandra bullock for the blind side.

(okay... streep would possibly rank third out of these five. before mirren & bullock.... who can fight it out for the bottom slot in my head.)

let me begin by saying streep is not bad as julia childs. in fact, she's quite good. unfortunately, she's in a very unfortunate film. but even without nora ephron's schlock.... streep would not deserve to win here.

and for a long time she appeared poised to win her third oscar (after her best supporting actress win for kramer vs. kramer and her best actress win for sophie's choice).

but then came the broadcast film critics shocking tie between streep and sandra bullock. suddenly, the mediocre film that wouldn't go away was garnering even more oscar talk for bullock.

and then she won the golden globe. and the screen actors guild.

and now bullock scores her first oscar nomination.

bullock has been adored and turned in solid work since she blew audiences (and critics) away in speed. and she has always done well in supporting roles while taking on some truly awful leading roles. but not always awful.

this year also saw a fine performance from bullock in the surprisingly winning the proposal.

so the stars started to align. and now bullock will very likely win what i have termed: "the julia roberts erin brockovich oscar." that is to say... it's not the best performance of the year, but it's a respectable performance. and you know what? gee-golly.... we really like sandra bullock. so let's give her the oscar!


again... bullock's work in the blind side is not awful. it's good, in fact. but it's not oscar-worthy. and vishnu knows the film isn't best picture material (but more on that later).

bullock is much loved. and we love to reward young, beautiful, american actresses the best actress oscar (a long-standing tradition until the last three years).

so here we are... and i have to grit my teeth, try to smile.... and have more wine.

will win: sandra bullock, the blind side
should win: carey mulligan, an education

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

the nominees for best actor are:

jeff bridges, crazy heart
george clooney, up in the air
colin firth, a single man
morgan freeman, invictus
jeremy renner, the hurt locker

this year's best actor winner could be seen as a potential winner for several reasons:

1) with this year's oscar nomination he has five under his belt and the academy loves a nominee who has paid his dues.

2) while he's not terribly old by peter o'toole and christopher plummer standards... he has been in movies for over four decades.

and most of all.... he probably simply deserves the fuckin' thing.

but i want to back track first. let's quickly eliminate two nominees for the sheer fact that they've both recently won. george clooney won best supporting actor for 2005's syriana. and morgan freeman won best supporting actor for 2004's million dollar baby.

is five or six years too soon to reward these actors again? does it make a difference that this year they're nominated for best LEAD actor?

this is freeman's sixth nomination. two of the six have been for supporting. the other four for lead. so can it be argued that freeman is due a best LEAD actor award?

and what of clooney? this is his third nomination in acting (he was also nominated for both directing and writing good night and good luck). and since his win in syriana, i think there's no doubt clooney is a leading man.

and there was a time when up in the air had all the momentum and clooney appeared on his way to another oscar.

but i think the academy is secure in both freeman's and clooney's supporting statuettes.... for now. and time will come for them both again.

then you have two first time nominees in the veritable unknown, jeremy renner, and the always a bridesmaid never the bride, colin firth.

it is too early for renner. despite the paternal world we live in... men have to work harder for their oscars than women. the academy wants a man to EARN his award. pay dues. put in his time.

it is not yet time for renner.

firth has been very good for a very long time... but he's often overlooked by the showier performances in his films. his work in a single man, however, is superb and cannot be overlooked. he has taken the restraint we've come to know from him and used it to weave a deep pathos throughout his character's ups and downs. you always sense some stronger emotion just under george's surface... but firth will not let you in. and the role of george demands it.


yet firth is able to emote everything without saying much of anything. you hurt with him and you laugh with him... you even long with him.

i'm torn between who i think should win the best actor oscar this year...

i lean heavily towards firth. and on any given day i might tell you he is my choice for best actor.

but more often than not... my head tells me to go with the actor i think the academy will also reward this year: jeff bridges.

bridges garnered his first oscar nomination in 1972 with the last picture show... best supporting actor. he has been nominated three more times for thunderbolt and lightfoot (best supporting actor), starman (best actor) and most recently, 2000's the contender (best supporting actor).

here we have his fifth nomination.... once again for best actor. and his bad blake is amazing in crazy heart and has already brought him a golden globe, a los angeles film critics award, a broadcast film critics award and a SAG for best actor.

it's true that the movie, and maybe even the character, is formulaic... but there is nothing ordinary in bridges' performance. he's charming, pathetic, lovable, frustrating.... he is very much.... human.

and on top of all that.... the man can sing.

bridges has long been overlooked and underappreciated in hollywood. he has turned in performance after excellent performance. and he is adored by his peers and the public.

plus... he's the dude!

the big lebowski has endeared bridges into our hearts more than any film i can think of for most any actor.

bridges has paid his dues. he has put in his time.

it's time to give him his oscar.

will win: jeff bridges, crazy heart
should win: jeff bridges, crazy heart (with colin firth just edged out into 2nd place)

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

the nominees for best supporting actress are:

penélope cruz, nine
vera farmiga, up in the air
maggie gyllenhaal, crazy heart
anna kendrick, up in the air
mo'nique, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire

as i mentioned when discussing best supporting actor, the best supporting actress category appears to be a lock.... possibly even more so than supporting actor.

and many of the old rules can be thrown out quite quickly.

there is no nominee who could be seen as a lifetime achievement winner. but, as discussed, that rarely even holds true for the supporting categories any more.

you have the "give the award to the actress who has been nominated before" award... and that would be penélope cruz. with nine, cruz snags her third nomination. but after winning just last year for vicky cristina barcelona... it's too soon to award her with another oscar (no matter how incredibly sexy she is).

so that brings us to our four, first-time nominees.

maggie gyllenhaal finally joins her brother, jake, in the realm of the oscar nominated with her nod for crazy heart. and she has long been overshadowed by her brother who was nominated in the supporting ranks for brokeback mountain. but gyllenhaal has turned in a string of stunning performances, including her recent role in sherrybaby, which many people thought deserved a nomination.

this year gyllenhaal was more of a surprise nominee, possibly pushing out one-time nomination fave julianne moore for her work in a single man.

but after several films and a number of critics awards for her work in sherrybaby and secretary, this nomination is more of an acknowledgement of gyllenhaal's talent and the promise of an oscar to come.

at this point in the race, up in the air co-stars kendrick and farmiga most likely cancel each other out... for a time, kendrick seemed the talk of the oscar statuette. and both seemed to be strong candidates for the ultimate win. but up in the air seems to have lost most of its momentum.

and then came a movie with the pretentious title: precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire.

and then came mo'nique's shocking and horrifying performance as mary, mother to precious.

to my knowledge, nothing prepared us for mo'nique's turn in precious. her performance is bare-knuckled ugly and she holds nothing back. mary is evil and mo'nique embraces it.... and then hurls it at her daughter's head.

mo'nique's performance is brave enough to leave all glamour at the door. and she creates one of the most despicable characters ever to be captured on celluloid. and if you don't believe... be brave enough to watch until the very end. just when you think mary can be no more pathetic, mo'nique is there to peel back another layer... and sink even lower into her character's darkness.

mo'nique, even after a potentially destructive and obnoxious start to an oscar campaign, has gone on to win nearly every critics award... including the golden globe and the screen actor's guild.

there is no stopping mo'nique with this powerhouse performance. it's monstrous. it's sickening. it's the best performance of the year.... and without question, deserving of the win and a lock for the gold.

will win: mo'nique, precious...
should win: mo'nique, precious...

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

the nominees for best supporting actor are:

matt damon, invictus
woody harrelson, the messenger
christopher plummer, the last station
stanley tucci, the lovely bones
christoph waltz, inglourious basterds

let me begin by saying we should not be in store for many surprises come oscar night. everything seems to have fallen into place with only an odd new voting system for best picture potentially upsetting the givens.

and in no category may this be more true than best supporting actor. okay.... maybe best supporting actress. but that's tomorrow.

christoph waltz's explosive turn as colonel hans landa in inglourious basterds manages to overshadow a film filled with tarantino irreverence. beyond the dialogue. beyond the slickness of production. beyond brad pitt.... waltz raises basterds. he brings nuance. he brings evil. but beyond that.... he brings weight to the story.

waltz has won every major critics award from the new york film critics circle to the los angeles film critics association. he's won the broadcast film critics and the national society of film critics awards. he's taken home the golden globe and the screen actors guild. he even won the gold at cannes.

i mean, seriously... who can stop him?

this is matt damon's first oscar nomination since his oscar nomination for acting and oscar win for writing good will hunting 12 years ago. and in invictus he is overshadowed by morgan freeman's mandela.

this is actually woody harrelson's second oscar nomination. he was nominated back in 1996 for best actor for his work in the people vs. larry flynt. the academy often likes to award prior nominees but the messenger was seen little and i expect harrelson would come in a distant fourth in the final ballot.

then you have stanley tucci garnering his first nod for the lovely bones. unfortunately, bones is such a mess of a movie it might be difficult for academy voters to find any way to stomach rewarding the film. no, tucci's nomination is more, finally, a recognition of his talent.... it also probably helped that he turned in an equally impressive performance in another mess of a film: julie & julia.

and speaking of a long overdue recognition of talent: christopher plummer, at age 80 and after 5 decades of making movies, garners his first nomination this year with the last station. there was a time (not long ago) when the supporting categories were often used more as a lifetime achievement award than an honor bestowed upon the most deserving performance. perhaps in the 70s or the 80s, possibly even the 90s, plummer would have been given the gold simply for his life's work.

but the academy has moved away from that and has, somehow, found a way to honor (more often than not) the most deserving.

perhaps plummer's nomination - which is much deserved, i'd like to add - will be honor enough for him after all these years. and there just may be a lifetime achievement award for him in the near future.

but this year... i think the academy will once again get it right.

will win: christoph waltz, inglourious basterds
should win: christoph waltz, inglourious basterds

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

the curious case of benjamin button
frost/nixon
milk
the reader
slumdog millionaire

once again for the benefit of my anonymous poster... it should be said that the dark knight is a far superior film to at least two of these nominees, if not more.

i am not willing to say that milk or frost/nixon do not belong on this list. they are easily in my top five.

milk for it's heartbreaking and inspirational storytelling of a movement that is still alive today but is beholden to a great man. van sant and penn make a moving biopic here that is just outside my top spot.

frost/nixon for it's compelling cat and mouse intellectual mindfuck between a fallen president and a man desperate to prove himself. in fact, aren't they both attempting redemption here? the tension builds beautifully until everything unwraps itself in the climatic interview.

i understand the technical and visual wonders that garnered benjamin button a nomination. but it does not belong in the top five.

the reader most certainly does not belong in the top five.

i would replace either of these with the dark knight, revolutionary road or WALL-E.

but one film i most definitely would not replace is slumdog millionaire. this is one of the most thrilling films i've seen in such a long time. it's not thrilling in the way an action film is thrilling...but it will leave you breathless. and from all the grit and grim that these characters are able to pull themselves up from and push themselves to the most delightful and surprising endings in a film this year.... how can slumdog not win?

yes... there is some backlash. there always is when a film becomes this big so fast. there will be naysayers. but fuck 'em all. slumdog millionaire is the best film of the year and deserves to take home the big prize.

it has won near unanimous praise and continues to rack up every prize in its path... including the PGA (producer's guild).

pair the PGA and DGA win...and slumdog seems the final lock of the evening.

final answer...?

will win: slumdog millionaire
should win: slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

david fincher, the curious case of benjamin button
ron howard, frost/nixon
gus van sant, milk
stephen daldry, the reader
danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

this category is pretty open and shut so i'd like to take a moment and note a particular individual who was not nominated in this category. it will make my anonymous poster happy to know i think it was a great shame that christopher nolan was overlooked this year for directing the dark knight. a great shame.

i'd also like to see both daldry and fincher replaced here.... but these are the nominees we have and, therefore, these are the nominees we must analyze.

ummmm.... ya know? who are we kidding.....?

danny boyle will win sunday night for his direction of slumdog millionaire. i'm just not sure i have the energy tonight to really go on and on when the outcome is so obvious.

i should also point out.... i think boyle should win. his direction is fresh and innovative... it's fantastical and yet rooted in a deep reality. it's just a fabulously constructed film.

i'd put gus van sant and then ron howard next.... as i said, i'd leave the other two off the list.

and it's hard to argue any other director when i truly feel boyle deserves it.

i can't even pretend to think that someone else might even possibly upset boyle. it's not gonna happen...

boyle won the DGA (that's the director's guild) and i believe there's about an above 80% chance that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar. that may actually be the percentage for the picture to go on to win after the director wins.... in all honesty, i'd think it was over 90% likely that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar.

and i feel good about it all.... what more is there to say?

will win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire
should win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

anne hathaway, rachel getting married
angelina jolie, changeling
melissa leo, frozen river
meryl streep, doubt
kate winslet, the reader

interesting category this year... mostly for the absence of the person most deserving of the award: sally hawkins for happy-go-lucky. it's hard to pick a winner when the one person that should win didn't even make the cut.

and far as i'm concerned....she deserves it head and shoulders over the rest.

but i am faced with these five. i agree with three of the nominations. i have problems with the other two... on one level, it's just insulting that they made the cut over hawkins. on the other level, the ultimate winner in this category will be undeserving for this role but wholly deserving for her other role this year.

but let's start with who will not be winning. always a good way to start....

and angelina, i'm sorry - but your nomination hurts me the most. she is unremarkable in a film that is equally forgettable. i'm not sure what happened with clint eastwood this year.... i've often claimed him to be one of the best directors working in films these days... but i found both changeling and gran torino lacking. no, i think mr. and mrs. brangelina will both go home empty-handed this year.

but wasn't nominating them both just adorable.....?

anne hathaway, i thought, was very good in rachel getting married. it was nice seeing her push her acting skills. my friend jason thinks she was a bit over her head... but i thought she did a very nice job so i have no problem with the nomination (accept for the fact that sally hawkins wasn't nominated). but annie will not win this year.... but keep an eye on her.

that leaves three individuals. all three of whom could potentially win.

the least likely of the three is melissa leo. but her performance in frozen river is easily the best performance in this group of five. she gives a hard-nosed and steely performance and felt the most completely inhabited of her role. she is heartbreaking and funny and infuriating...... it is a big performance in a small film and i am so happy she was remembered. i think she has the greatest outside chance of the three at winning....

i read some grumbling on awardsdaily.com today that they see a victory for leo as a real possibility. perhaps if the other two split the votes? it would thrill me.... you know, since sally hawkins wasn't nominated... but i don't really see it.

the next most likely winner is meryl streep. jesus.... what can you say about meryl that hasn't already been said? i think my friend jason put it the best: "streep haters be damned, she played to the back row because this character plays to the back row."

i think it's really a solid performance..... i'm not sure why some people panned her? she is incredible. and i'd rank her second in this group of five.

so what does meryl have going for her? well, beyond the strong performance, this is her 15th nomination. the last time she won was for sophie's choice back in 1982. that's a 26 year and 10 nomination losing streak she's on. and let's be honest... if ANYONE deserves a third oscar, it's the great meryl streep. and the academy voters may decide, yes, it's time to honor her again.

but then there's ms. winslet. kate winslet is easily one of the greatest younger actors working in movies. and this is her 6th nomination. that means this talent has gone home empty-handed five times.

it's really a crime.

the problem i have here is.... she's simply nominated for the wrong film. her performance in the reader is good.... she's good in everything... but she is far superior in revolutionary road. if she were nominated for road, i'd have her at the top of my list (behind sally hawkins, of course).

but in the reader.... she uses the wrong accent... it's easily argued a supporting role.... but here she is. and she's due an oscar. and i do think she'll win the oscar.... i just wish she were winning it for revolutionary road. she is superb in revolutionary road. gut-wrenchingly good. and if she does win, it may be because of that performance just as much as the one she is nominated for (which, by the way, she's never lost when nominated for the reader, no matter what category).

so i predict ms. winslet will finally win her oscar sunday night.... and i will have quibbles over the role and the lack of sally hawkins and that ms. leo is the most qualified in this grouping..... but i will be happy for her. and all my bad feelings will quickly dissolve.

but i'm allowed to bitch tonight.

will win: kate winslet, the reader
should win: melissa leo, frozen river (but really: sally hawkins, happy-go-lucky)

e.

p.s. in case you can't tell.... i put the academy's inability to nominate sally hawkins (who won every critic's award) as the most shameful black eye since judy davis lost to marisa tomei.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

the nominees for best actor are:

richard jenkins, the visitor
frank langella, frost/nixon
sean penn, milk
brad pitt, the curious case of benjamin button
mickey rourke, the wrestler

here is a category where the academy got it just about right.... i could quibble with probably one nomination here.... but even mr. pitt, it can be argued, deserves a nod. there may be a more deserving nominee out there... but it's not a horrible nod.

unfortunately for most everyone in this category, it's a two man horse race.

let's start with who will not win and we'll go from the least likely to the most likely.

richard jenkins, bless 'em... he was probably lucky to be remembered and even nominated. don't get me wrong, i was thrilled when he was nominated. i've been a long-time fan of jenkins... even before his brilliant turn as the paternal fisher on six feet under. and i think he gives a touching and understated performance in the visitor. but let's be honest... he doesn't stand a chance.

hmmm... the next two are probably interchangeable. but i'll go with brad pitt next. brad pitt is possibly the least deserving in this category.... however, he should get points for ably carrying that mammoth film... once again (like henson in supporting actress), it's a role tailor-made for the oscars and they ate it up. believe it or not... pitt does stand a chance at winning. once again, if they're looking for a way to reward benjamin button, why not honor the man who makes his way through the entire story and must carry so much bullshit on his back to even make the film somewhat watchable? but no.... mr. jolie will not win.

frank langella is possibly my second favorite performances in this category. i mean, he makes richard nixon fucking sympathetic. now THAT'S acting, my friends.... and it's the type of role i, personally, eat up. literate, historical.... demanding. and who ever knew langella's eyes were so expressive....? it's a marvelous performance and, at one time, i thought he was the actor to beat. long-admired, long-overlooked..... it's a prestige film and a historical one at that.... very popular with the academy.

but then there came two other performances. one, i think deserves to win. the other, as of this writing, i think will probably win. but this is the race that i think is most up in the air for the entire oscar evening.... and it comes down to penn v. rourke.

sean penn gives what i believe is the strongest performance in this category. in fact, i think it's one of the best performances of the year. his harvey milk is charming and engrossing and inspiring... and his performance is nothing short of miraculous. he inhabits this character, as he does all his characters.

roger ebert said it best when he said penn creates his characters from the inside out... he is possibly the greatest actor currently working in films. and his win would be a highlight of the evening for me. but he must contend with rourke.

mickey rourke has shot to the top of the charts with his role in the wrestler. once again, personally, i was underwhelmed with the movie. it's possible i was simply turned off by the amount of wrestling. i thought it would take a backseat to the personal stories told... but it's front and center and often a bit more graphic than i would have liked (and no, i don't mind graphic films. i'm a scorsese fanatic, for chrissakes!).

rourke does give a very powerful and moving performance. but i think the strength of his performance and, in fact, the driving force behind his current momentum to win, is coupled much too strongly with his personal story. it is the story of mickey rourke that i believe will win him the oscar more than his performance.

the oscars love a good story.... and rourke's personal life perfectly mirrors the role he presents on film. and it all makes for a very compelling argument to award him the gold.

i think it can go either way... if you ask me in two hours who i think will win, i'll say penn. but if you ask me tomorrow afternoon, i'll be back on rourke.

and they've split the critics awards pretty evenly. penn has won the broadcast film critics, the chicago film critics, the LA film critics, the ny film critics and the SAG. his winning the SAG actually makes me think he may take home the oscar. afterall, it's the same people who vote for the oscars.

rourke has won the BAFTA, the golden globe, london critics circle, chicago, kansas, toronto and san diego.

but they've also both tied in awards presented by the boston society of film critics and the san francisco film critics.

so who will win? will penn's harsh words over the years concerning the academy and the awards season in general hurt his chances? will the fact that he's already won for mystic river hurt his chances?

will rourke's bizarre behavior and momentary flirtation with actual "professional" wrestling hurt his chances?

sadly, we won't know until sunday night.... but for now:

will win: mickey rourke, the wrestler (with penn an easy upset)
should win: sean penn, milk

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

and the nominees for best supporting actress are:

amy adams, doubt
penélope cruz, vicky cristina barcelona
viola davis, doubt
taraji p. henson, the curious case of benjamin button
marisa tomei, the wrestler

tonight we arrive at my favorite category... best supporting actress. i'm not sure why i have a special affinity for this category but i just love it. maybe because you get a nice, diverse group of actors? maybe because you find the best character actresses in this category? maybe because they love giving the award to woody allen actresses?

but we'll get to ms. cruz later.....

first i'd like to start with what i perceive as one of the worst nominations of the night: taraji p. henson. my only thought is there remains some residual guilt on the part of the academy for not nominating her for the superior performance she gave in hustle and flow. but whatever it is... i knew two things as i watched benjamin button:

1. this entire film and this particular role was created to woo the oscars.
2. the academy would probably be duped by both.

and they were.... the entire movie is overblown and over-lauded. but here we are....

luckily, i don't think ms. henson has a chance at winning the award (unless the academy is looking for a way to reward benjamin button because it will not win any major award and has so many nominations). i would also like to point out that she has not won a single, major award (critics or otherwise) except the austin film critics. exactly.

so let's look at the other contenders....all of whom, conceivably, have a shot.

we have the prior nominee: amy adams, nominated before as best supporting actress for junebug. ms. adams will one day win an oscar, i believe that. but she is greatly overshadowed here by the other three actors nominated for doubt. i'm afraid she'll have to wait a bit longer.

we have the previous winner: marisa tomei who won in the same category for my cousin vinny. OVER, i might add, a much more deserving judy davis for woody allen's husbands and wives.

a side note: tomei's win over davis continues to be the thorn in my academy's side. tomei is marvelous in vinny, yes... but davis dominated that year and should have easily won. one of the biggest mistakes, in my opinion, in academy history.

tomei was also recently nominated again for in the bedroom. i honestly go back and forth and whether or not i feel she deserves this nomination. she is very good in the movie, but i don't feel the same groundswell for her as i do mickey rourke for that film.

no...this year i see the ranks of the woody allen supporting actresses taking their revenge.

but more on ms. cruz in a minute.....

we also have the first timer: yes, henson is also a first time nominee.... but viola davis quietly and intensely took hold of her first nomination. there was no need to showboat and overact.... instead, her performance is all about holding back.... every struggle her characters endures must take place within.... and davis allows you to see it all without ever letting you see inside.

davis deserves to win this category. she takes on the greatest living screen actress and steals the scene without chewing the scenery. she is easily, the greatest performance in doubt.

and much will be said for her lack of screen time. most estimates have her screen time around 8 minutes.... just over 10 when you include a scene that contains no dialogue for the actress. and her lack of screen time is the biggest hurdle she has to overcome in order to take home the gold.

but there is precedence: judi dench won best supporting actress for shakespeare in love with a mere 8 minutes of total screen time in a much longer film. and her performance was spread out over four scenes.... davis must accomplish it all in one remarkable scene.

beatrice straight won a supporting actress oscar for her 6 minutes in network. they are six amazing minutes.... but again: only six minutes.

so will davis win? sadly, probably not..... i'm not sure she can escape the naysayers who simply say there wasn't enough time.

so the oscar will go to the second most deserving nominee in the category, the woody allen supporting actress. i categorize penélope cruz as a woody allen supporting actress because she comes from a long line of supporting actresses nominated for woody allen roles.

there's the aforementioned judy davis. dianne weist has been nominated twice, and won twice, for supporting roles in hannah and her sisters and bullets over broadway. maureen stapleton received a nod for interiors. mira sorvino turned her nomination into an oscar win for mighty aphrodite. samantha morton in sweet and lowdown. and mariel hemingway in manhattan.

yes, cruz joins a long list of actresses to be recognized in the supporting ranks via an allen film.

and cruz gives the academy voters everything they like... beauty, wit, a range of emotions with lovely dramatic scenes.... and there is a beautiful mixture of fire and insanity behind cruz's eyes throughout her performance.

i basically see the race between davis and cruz. it's difficult to gauge based on prior awards due to kate winslet's oft inclusion (and win) in this category for the reader.

but cruz has raked in an impressive list of wins including: the LA film critics, national board of review, ny film critics, boston society of film critics and the BAFTA.

ms. davis has only won a breakthrough award via the national board of review. cruz topped here in the actual supporting category.

this year, the academy keeps it's current european streak alive:

will win: penélope cruz, vicky cristina barcelona
should win: viola davis, doubt

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

the nominees for best supporting actor are:

josh brolin, milk
robert downey jr., tropic thunder
philip seymour hoffman, doubt
heath ledger, the dark knight
michael shannon, revolutionary road

funny how similarities can run from year to year. last year's best supporting actor race also saw p.s. hoffman in the third slot....alphabetically. and just like last year, if i were to declare any category a lock this year.... i would bet on best supporting actor.

heath ledger is set to be the first actor to win a posthumous oscar since peter finch won for network back in 1976.

and there has been a lot of talk about whether a ledger win would be a deserving win or simply a way to honor a talent silenced too soon.

i can say without hesitation: heath ledger deserves to win this award. he easily turns in one of the best performances of the year.

his joker is so haunting... so engrossing.... so terrifying. and there is a soul and an understanding deep in those eyes that peer out from behind that deranged make-up. ledger created a villain to rival the cinema greats and silenced any critics.

but those who deserve to win don't always win.... this is true. but i do believe this year the oscars will once again get this category right.

just as last year was too soon for hoffman after his recent win for capote, so is it this year... not that it isn't a deserving a powerful performance.

michael shannon came out of nowhere to snag a nomination for revolutionary road... but despite the surprise, this is probably the second most deserving nomination in this category. and if he had just one or two more scenes... he would probably give ledger a run for his money. the movie lights afire when shannon is on screen and his scenes are the most devastating in an overwhelmingly devastating film.

josh brolin, however, is probably the second actor most likely to win this category. he has won several critics awards include the national board of review and the ny film critics. and his victory would also be for the superb year he had last year with no country for old men, american gangster and in the valley of elah but for which he was ultimately overlooked. he also garnered critical praise this year not just for milk but for his captivating work in w.

that leaves robert downey, jr. for tropic thunder. true, he is one of the three individuals in this category who have previous nominations (best actor, chaplin). and the academy often likes to reward individuals with prior nods. but they rarely give out the big prize to comedies... of course, this category is known for rewarding comedic performances, most notably kevin kline for a fish called wanda and, more recently, alan arkin for little miss sunshine.

but i don't see downey or anyone else winning here.

the night will belong to ledger... he has already won countless awards, including the screen actors guild, the golden globe, the BAFTA, the los angeles film critics, as well as the chicago and broadcast film critics.

depending on who else wins come sunday night... it may prove to be one of the most deserving moments of the evening. and depending on who accepts the award for him, it could also be one of the most moving.

will win: heath ledger, the dark knight
should win: heath ledger, the dark knight

e.

Official Pre-Announcement Predictions

the nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards come out tomorrow.... so you know what that means, my lovelies? time for my official predictions!

and away we go........

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Spoiler: Doubt or The Wrestler

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus van Sant, Milk

Spoiler: Well, Aronofsky would be the real spoiler and I think Ron Howard might be a more secure prediction for Frost/Nixon. But let’s have a little fun.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Spoiler: I would love to see Richard Jenkins nominated for The Visitor.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Spoiler: Angelina Jolie replaces Thomas for The Changeling.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Spoiler: Either James Franco or Emile Hirsch for Milk. In fact, I can easily see Franco taking Patel’s spot.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Spoiler: It seems that this category may be the most up-in-the-air. I could easily see Amy Adams snag a nod for Doubt. But I also think a Slumdog groundswell could pull Frieda Pinto into a nod instead of DeWitt. DeWitt is the most vulnerable.

Other Possible Scenarios:
Okay...just to put some fear into everyone. Here are some possible scenarios that I could see happening but hope will not. Awardsdaily.com gave me the idea and some of these are from there:

The Dark Knight is left out of every major category except Best Supporting Actor. Instead, Eastwood and Torino slip in or even The Wrestler. Or that fourth nomination comes for Amy Adams from Doubt which pushes that film into a Best Picture/Director race.

Kate Winslet is seen as a lead in both her films and cancels herself out and receives a nomination for neither. (Please note: I'm predicting two nominations for her tomorrow.)

Slumdog receives NO acting nominations I see this as a strong possibility.

Also...if Revolutionary Road gains any traction, expect noms for Picture and Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio.

But these are all outside chances...and I remain true to my predictions... Knowing full well that I’ve made some dicey predictions just to make things fun, I fully expect to get a couple wrong.

But I do love this time of year.......

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