Tonight... Tonight...

well, fuck me... i'm having a really shitty, very busy day.

but i'm finding the time to list my official predictions for the caucuses tonight.

i really think everything is too close to call and if i'm wrong - well, i think a lot of people will be wrong.

but i make predictions for the oscars... i can make predictions for iowa.

just as final reference: realclearpolitics.com currently has obama winning over clinton by 1.6 points and huckabee beating romney by 3 points.

a lot of final polls have shown strong bumps for obama and huckleberry.

official predictions
i think ole "hope is on the way" edwards will win iowa. he has the experienced caucus goers and i just think his organization on the ground will get out his vote. he's also a strong second choice for those less-than-15% supporters of other candidates.

hillary will be second with obama in third.

this will all be very close...no real clear winner. all the dems will live to fight another day.

i believe hillbilly huckabee will top flip-flop mitt and take iowa... his margin of victory may be a bit larger than any democratic victory.

maccain will come in third... rudy will finish abysmally low.

these are my official predictions based on numbers. in all honesty - obama will probably win but i just can't bring myself to admit it... if he does - it will be a slight margin.

gut predictions
these are my "for fun" predictions. just some feelings i have in my gut and i could see the caucuses finishing like this:

hillary wins the democratic contest. her organization gets out the vote and older women come out in force to cast a historic vote. older voters are far more reliable than younger voters. obama is counting too much on the youth vote. and as joe scarborough says (fuck me, i'm quoting joe) - you're a fool to count on the youth vote. obama will finish second and edwards third.... all in all...a CLOSE contest.

romney's money and organization will sweep him into a victory over huckabee...but only by a slight margin. this will help romney and i still see him as the eventual nominee for president.

romney v. hillary.

and that...as they say....is that.

tomorrow is a new day.

e.