So What Do We Know?

ummmm.... not much.

we can give some specifics. for example, obama won more states last night but hillary leads in delegates.

obama picked up connecticut which is a big victory but carries a small number of delegates.

at the same time... hillary was able to capture massachusetts when the kennedy clan, john kerry and the governor were all campaigning for obama. in fact - it was a huge victory for hillary. i believe i read the word "trounced" in one article.

she also picked up california - handily. i heard several people pick obama to upset hill in california...but i predicted the latino vote would help carry the state. it did... she did.... latinos voted for hillary almost 2-1.

new mexico is still out... currently, hill's winning with a total count lead of about 117 votes.

amazing.

on the republican side....mccain won big. all signs lead to him being the nominee.

but huckabee also made a surprise showing...picking up all the bible belt states that competed yesterday. it was a blow to romney.... a blessing for mccain.

is huckaberry positioning himself for the number two spot on a mccain ticket?

so who won?
on the republican side...no question. mccain won. it's over. i've read that several people predict romney to drop out today... but apparently he's come out and said he's forging on.

the man likes to punish himself.

on the democratic side... it depends who you ask. one coworker came in today and said she knew i'd be thrilled with hillary's victory last night. another coworker practically pissed himself he was so excited.

but yet another coworker came in certain i was crushed by hillary's tragic loss last night.

amazing the different takes.

personally - i think hillary did great. she took the big states and even held on to several that people thought she might lose. she currently leads in the delegate count... thanks in some part to pledged super delegates. but delegates nominate - so she's ahead.

obama took a lot of smaller states... and he should be proud. he won every caucus which...if nothing else...speaks to his supporters' zeal and enthusiasm.

but hillary did take a majority of the last minute deciders... something obama may want to worry about.

however, obama should win the handful of states that vote over the next week - louisiana and the mid-atlantic states.

but these are all...still...small states.

march 4th appears to be the next big day... and guess what?

TEXAS WILL MATTER!

finally...my vote could actually make a difference in the nominating process. i need to see how i can volunteer...

but i'm getting ahead of myself.

david brooks wrote an interesting article today in the times about moving forward. by looking at how the voters tracked, you can predict how the democratic race may shape up moving forward.

from brooks:

[T]he big horse-race message out of Super Tuesday is that demography is destiny. In state after state, Clinton carried the groups she usually carries — white women, people with high school degrees, people earning less than $50,000, Latinos. In state after state, Obama carried the groups he usually carries: the affluent, white men, people with college degrees, African-Americans.

Where did the John Edwards vote go? It depended on what demographic category they fell into. The downscale ones went for Clinton and the upscale ones for Obama.

Everyone says the next month is going to be brutal for Clinton. Unlike Super Tuesday, Obama will have time to focus on specific states and his campaign skills will make the difference. But I have to think that in the long run Clinton has the edge. Obama has, at least so far, not been able to make enough inroads into her communities. So long as women make up 55 to 59 percent of Democratic primary voters, you have to figure there are simply more of her kind of people, especially in the big states like Ohio and Texas.

i also find it interesting that the asian and latino population made such a difference and broke hard for hillary in california. texas has an enormous hispanic population and a large asian population.

a win in texas could be amazing for hillary (and i plan to help make it happen). if hillary can lay claim to the largest states with the largest number of delegates: new york, california, texas... florida (even though it didn't count) and maybe even ohio... how could she not go on to take the nomination?

but obama is impressive... i do not count him out.

and i'm constantly nagged by who is the better choice for the party? who will ensure victory in november?

my only conclusion... a joint ticket.

but once again..... i'm getting ahead of myself.

e.