Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

the nominees for best supporting actress are:

cate blanchett, i'm not there
ruby dee, american gangster
saoirse ronan, atonement
amy ryan, gone, baby gone
tilda swinton, michael clayton

supporting actress has long been my favorite category. it's the category with the best possibility for surprises.

these are not always pleasant surprises. marisa tomei's performance in my cousin vinny defeating the far superior judy davis in husbands and wives instantly comes to mind.

but sometimes this category gets it right when all seemed lost leading up to awards night. lauren bacall seemed a lock for the mirror has two faces. she had never been nominated before and it would've been a lifetime achievement award (the supporting categories are often used for lifetime achievement honors, i.e. helen hayes & ingrid bergman). but the far more deserving juliette binoche took home the gold for the english patient.

the year of titanic i famously told my friends i would make small incisions in my wrists and slowly bleed to death throughout the night if that gawdawful performance by gloria stuart won best supporting actress. my life was spared when kim basinger won for l.a. confidential. (it should've been julianne moore in boogie nights - for the record.)

tonight we have several of these possibilities. and i find this category the most up in the air out of every category tonight. i can conceivably see any of these nominees winning.

it currently appears ruby dee has all the momentum coming out of her surprising SAG win. if dee were to win... it would be as a lifetime achievement award. and a deserved one for her many years of work... but i don't think her performance truly even deserved a nomination. hey...she's great in that one scene...and who else could stand up to denzel...? but there were better performances out there.

the most deserving performance seems to be cate blanchett's brilliant turn in i'm not there. and she seemed unstoppable until dee won the SAG. she's also the only person in this category with any previous nominations.

but there are other reasons that could derail blanchett. she just won for 2004's the aviator. and she won in this category. is it too soon for the academy to recognize her again... and in the same category? isn't she more deserving of a best actress win?

and what of the remaining three? all three played truly unlikeable characters... something that often hurts women. the academy can reward an asshole played by a man... but they don't often like bitches.

saoirse ronan was a very happy nomination for me... she is by far the best part of atonement and if the academy is looking for a way to reward the movie... she would be perfect. but the film may have to settle for only a best original score win.

tilda swinton has long turned in incredible performances... but the academy is bewildered by the woman who brought us orlando and the deep end and she may be a bit too cold for the academy. nicole kidman long suffered from being perceived as too cold. it wasn't until she barked in moulin rouge! people began to really like her.

but again... if the academy is looking for a way to reward michael clayton, i can easily see swinton winning.

and what of amy ryan? she's known more for theatre which gives her good pedigree. but who saw the film? and is her foul-mouthed, crackhead mother just too much for the academy to get behind?

i think it's probably a three person race: blanchett, swinton & dee. i would put down swinton as the spoiler but ultimately see it going to dee. it's too soon for blanchett, i think... as much as she deserves it.

will win: ruby dee, american gangster
should win: cate blanchett, i'm not there

e.