Delegate Update

okay...so i decided to search out the delegate count.

as it currently stands according to realclearpolitics.com:

hillary: 1,012
obama: 933

this includes 211 pledged super delegates for hillary and 128 super delegates for obama. so let's take those away:

obama: 805
hillary: 801

we're talking four delegates, people...! this thing just may go to the convention. that would be mind blowing.

oh...and for all the trumpeting of obama's "big win" in the bell weather state of missouri - they currently split the delegates evenly.

and looking down the road, i can see obama winning most of the states but with proportional delegates, he will not win the total delegate count.

states voting in february with the number of delegates at play:

washington, 97
louisiana, 66 (closed primary so no independents, but a large black population)
nebraska, 31
maine, 34 (close primary - no indies)
virginia, 101
maryland, 99 (closed primary)
district of columbia, 38 (closed primary - large black population)

i bring up the large black population not to scream "jesse jackson! jesse jackson!" but in recognition that obama is overwhelmingly winning the african american demographic. this is good news for him in closed primary states where he can't count on independents.

at the same time... states the are voting march 4th include texas with a large latino and asian population (along with its 228 delegates) and ohio (with another 161 delegates). these are states i see hillary taking.

big states with big delegate counts vs. small states with small delegate counts.

so this thing is a long way from being over.... the delegate count will go back and forth.

but this is where we stand for now.

i thought you might like to know.

e.

p.s. by the way... hillary and barack need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. just fyi.