Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

cate blanchett, elizabeth: the golden age
julie christie, away from her
marion cotillard, la vie en rose
laura linney, the savages
ellen page, juno

best actress has been an interesting category over the years... there was a time when they loved the british actresses... maggie smith's character in california suite famously said of glenda jackson: "she wins every goddamn year."

yet over the past two or three decades...best actress has relatively been an american category.

the 1980's, in particular, rewarded great american performances from the likes of sally field, shirley maclaine and geraldine page.

the 1990's seemed to suddenly reward every great american actress that had been turning in great performances since the 1980's: lange, hunter, sarandon.

but since 2000... best actress has shifted even more. suddenly it wasn't enough to be american... you had to have a certain amount of glamour and beauty. let's look at the 21st century winners (this being award years, not film release years):

2000 Hillary Swank
2001 Julia Roberts
2002 Halle Berry
2003 Nicole Kidman (an Aussie - but an American film)
2004 Charlize Theron
2005 Hillary Swank
2006 Reese Witherspoon

the streak was finally broken last year when the academy awarded the gold to the most deserving nominee...but she was british and in her 60s! helen mirren, the queen.

the question this year is....does the academy want to repeat this new trend?

julie christie is considered the favorite for her subtle and beautiful turn in away from her. but she is british and in her 60s. she's also won once before for 1965's darling. but that too was a long time ago.

conventional wisdom would say the young american, ellen page, would have a great shot... and by all means she may upset. but she's not quite the glamour girl of the theron and berry ilk. but america has fallen in love with juno...may the academy?

or will juno have to settle for the one award that all quirky, fabulous films must settle for? best original screenplay.

blanchett just recently won in the supporting actress category and i'm not sure they'll want to reward her again so soon. besides, blanchett is like meryl streep and penguins... she can do no wrong in the academy's eyes... so there will be more nominations.

laura linney continues to be one of the most underappreciated actresses in film but i don't see her winning here.

marion cotillard gave the type of performance that makes the academy drool. her edith piaf is a tour de force that deserves every accolade that comes her way. but does the film and performance in french hurt her chances?

the last time a best actress winner came from a foreign language film was sophia loren for 1961's two women. the academy wants their best actress to speak english... preferably with an american accent (or a fake british one, gwyneth).

i see best actress as a three-way race... and i honestly can see any of these three actresses winning: julie christie, marion cotillard and ellen page. i see christie taking it with either of the other two actresses as the spoiler. but for official purposes, i'm going with christie.

will win: julie christie, away from her
should win: marion cotillard, la vie en rose

e.