Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

the nominees for best supporting actor are:

casey affleck, the assassination of jesse james by the coward robert ford
javier bardem, no country for old men
philip seymour hoffman, charlie wilson's war
hal holbrook, into the wild
tom wilkinson, michael clayton

if any category has a lock this year.... i would bet on best supporting actor.

the supporting actor category tends to reward those great character actors that never quite achieve the glory they deserve in the leading category.

remember that denzel washington won a best supporting oscar for glory long before he took home the gold as best actor for training day.

it's also important to remember that the academy has a long history of rewarding individuals they feel have "earned" their oscar... in other words... first time nominees rarely win. prior nominations always help your chances at winning the trophy.

unless you're peter o'toole. then you're just shit out of luck, apparently.

now...it seems the academy has begun to reward more and more first time nominees as of late. but this happens more with women... where they like to reward youth and beauty... especially in the best actress category. best supporting actress is also used often for first time nominees.

but the men have to work a bit harder... fortunately, hollywood tends to present more and better roles for men than woman, a constant problem with the film industry.

three of the five current batch of actors have prior nominations.

philip seymour hoffman actually won two years ago for capote (best actor). it's too soon for him to win again and he won't win for this performance... although having three brilliant performances this year says much for the actor.

tom wilkinson has one prior nomination for in the bedroom (best actor). and he is greatly respected. javier bardem also has one prior nomination for before night falls (best actor). bardem is also greatly respected.

casey affleck has received his first nomination this year... the fact that he also delivered what i felt was an oscar-worthy peformance in gone, baby gone can only help his chances at winning. but i feel the nomination is more of a vote of confidence in this young actor from the academy. other chances will present themselves in the future for affleck.

hal holbrook is supposed to be phenomenal in into the wild. i will admit that this is the one performance in the big six categories i have not seen. holbrook could be in the running for the win if viewed as a lifetime achievement award. but holbrook is more of a legend on the stage... so the movies may not feel so inclined.

going through all of this.... it is clear that javier bardem will win and should win. his killer in no country for old men is about the most frightening creation in the movies since malkovich in in the line of fire.

i could see wilkinson as an upset... but only if the academy is looking for a way to reward michael clayton. however, i can actually see that film going home empty-handed sunday night.

but bardem's cold, ruthless killer stands out among all performances this year and he has swept every critics award across the board. if you have to put money down on one winner this year....pick bardem.

will win: javier bardem, no country for old men
should win: javier bardem, no country for old men

e.