Hillary, Barack & The Bullshit Giuliani Analogy

oh, my lovelies.... where to begin? i have been neglectful this week because i find the world of politics simply daunting as of late.

not because of the sheer number of primaries and caucuses.

not because flip-flop mitt plans to give mccain the courtesy of a reach-around today and ask his delegates to support the ole straight-shooter.

not even because obama has won eight straight and now leads in the total delegate count, no matter how you slice it.

no...the media has me blue, my friends. once again they have written off my hillary. will they never learn?

and when will the real scrutiny of barack obama start? once he has the nomination and the republicans begin to obliterate him?

everyone keeps talking about giving the voters a fair shake but how can they when hillary is constantly lambasted and obama walks on water?

let's catch up.

the delegate count & 8 straight wins
yes. obama has won eight straight. big whoop. have you seen the states? plus...the caucus venue clearly favors obama. caucuses are made up of the well-educated, well-to-do party base. these people vote for obama.

clinton gets the high school educated and the poor. these people are working during the caucuses. they can't take off from work and stand around in a gymnasium for two to three hours. they have bills to pay!

personally... i want to help the poor and undereducated. if they feel hillary is best equipped to help them... i'm happy to help elect her president.

now.... the primaries this past tuesday are a bit more worrisome... i'm happy to admit this. obama won big.

maryland: obama 60%, clinton 37%.
virginia: obama 64%, clinton 35%.
district of columbia: obama 75%, clinton 24%.

these are impressive wins... all the more so because obama has made inroads into hillary's constituency. white men. people making under $50,000 a year. even latinos voted for obama in large numbers.

but is all lost? can nothing stop the "obama momentum"?

i admit tuesday night as i watched the returns i was overcome with a great sense of melancholy. for the first time i had a sinking feeling that all was lost for hillary.

but then i woke up wednesday morning and found myself reinvigorated. i joined more hillary groups online... i found out other ways i could help.

i'm ready to fight for this thing.

ohio & texas
ohio and texas have more delegates than all of these past eight states combined. yes... obama is well ahead now in delegates. he has 1,104 pledged delegates to hillary's 979. even when you take superdelegates into account, obama leads 1,260 to 1,221.

on this point... i don't think the nomination will be decided by superdelegates. it's the worst thing that could happen to the party... things will be decided before the convention. we need unity... it will happen. i have faith in hillary and barack that they want what's best for the party... not simply themselves.

but back on track: texas has 228 delegates and ohio has 161 (where hillary is currently ahead 17.3 points).

so i think everyone needs to take a breath and realize this thing is not over.

texas has an enormous latino and asian vote... i think they will turn out and vote for hillary as they did in california.

chuck todd of nbc/msnbc had some very interesting numbers he crunched and if you have a moment i'd look it over. it makes it look difficult for hillary...but not impossible. here's some of what he wrote on firstread:

No matter how one slices the election results from last night, there's no denying that Obama is the statistical front-runner. He's got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here's our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama's favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama's lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean? For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…

daunting...but not impossible.

on the giuliani analogy
enough with the bullshit, people. from everyone i'm hearing this comparison to giuliani's florida strategy with hillary's strategy for a big texas/ohio victory. first off...giuliani did not play in any early state. he did not advertise... he did not compete.

hillary has been competing in every state since the beginning. yes, maybe not as hard in some as in others... why fight in louisiana when you know obama will take the state? she's a smart politician.... she's the underdog in money.... she needs to play smart.

giuliani's entire campaign strategy was to hold out for florida. hillary simply plans to win ohio and texas... but don't expect her to stay out of the news cycle the way rudy did. she wants to debate... a lot.

also...let's not forget the string of bad news stories rudy had swirling about him.

the analogy holds no water... dick morris, margaret carlson, nbc, cnn, the rude pundit... get over it.

on barack obama
what do we really know about barack? about his plans? his strategies? what do we know about what the republicans will use against obama?

moveon.org endorsed obama. great for the liberal-wing of the party during the primary... HUGE liability in the general election. do you think mccain won't bring this up?

he's been named "the most liberal member of the senate." more liberal than ted kennedy?!?! i can hear the mccain ads now....

it's great to be liberal... shit, i'm so liberal i'm practically pink... but liberals do not win general elections. moderates do.

hell, even right-wing conservatives don't win.... they pretend to be "compassionate conservatives" and then take away all civil liberties and fuck over the planet. but they don't win elections advertising themselves and right-wing nutjobs. they're compassionate and moderate.

the country is far more centrist than the individuals electing nominees in the primaries.

i have said it before and i will say it again... i like obama. i do. but i am afraid of what will come out in the general.

hillary has been tested. she is strong. she's a scrapper.

can obama take the heat? and again...when will the heat come? in what form?

tuesday night...right after obama made his victory speech... mccain did the same. what did he say?

Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. to encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.

and this before obama even has the nod.

buddha help us if we're attacked during the general election. or if there's some other security disaster. obama will have no chance against mccain.

hillary cannot be called weak... hell, to steal a word from jane fonda, people think she's a cunt. but that word holds no connotation of weakness... unless you use the term pussy, which can mean weak, which..... i'm off track. and this is getting long.

allow me to sum up:

hillary '08.

i believed it on monday. i believe it today.

e.

p.s. don't forget i'm taking requests for my 100th blog. now only one blog away!