Showing posts with label barack obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label barack obama. Show all posts

Monday, February 9, 2009

Return of the Live Blog II

okay....i do a quick spell check on the previous post and suddenly we're talking about the RV capitol of the world. did i miss a turn....?

okay... "stabilizing the housing market." we seem to be back on course.

breaking news!
president obama does not have a crystal ball.

well, shit... now we're all fucked.

afghanistan
oh, there's ed henry of cnn. oh, wow... interesting. he's brought up the policy of the white house not allowing the flag-draped coffins returning to the united states to be broadcast. since he's promised so much transparency, will he reverse it? wow.... good question. tough question.

obama reminds everyone it's a timely question: four soldiers were killed in iraq today. but he brushes it off and says they're reviewing it and will not give a definite answer until they're done reviewing the policy.

ugh...what a dodge!

as far as afghanistan.... once again: reviewing all the details and information and intel regarding that forgotten war. sounds like he wants to refocus military efforts on afghanistan. and that includes more diplomacy.

and he just brought up 9/11. a bit of a throw-back to the bush years... but it worked. and bush would've brought it up in the first 2 minutes of the conference.

no timetables. huh...sounds like another throw-back to the bush years.

return to/of credit
another question about the need for credit and lending. he wants everyone to wait for tim geitner to make his announcement tomorrow. seems fair, i guess. he is the new treasury secretary. no need to steal his thunder.

okay....i'm drifting, questions are drifting. obama got his first laugh when a question about a joe biden comment came up and he said he doesn't exactly remember what "joe was referring to."

oh, that crazy joe....

a-rod!
holy shit... a brother from the washington post wasted his question asking about a-rod's use of steroids. seriously? i mean...what's obama gonna say? "well shit, blood. you know.... it improved his game and he kicked some ass. i say god bless 'im!" NO! of course he finds it sad and disappointing... but he seems to think baseball is on the right track to setting things right.

helen
and helen thomas gets a question. probably the final question... she asks about pakistan and if obama knows of anyone who has nuclear weapons.

he gave an answer about pakistan that, i'm sorry, i zoned out. i was thinking about helen and placing the washington post in italics.

but he will not speculate concerning nuclear weapons but he believes conversations need to begin anew about the need for a reduction in nuclear weapons....with the united states leading the way.

glad to hear that.

nope.... helen does not go last and is not allowed a follow-up. but she's on the front row again.

the huffington post goes next. and they ask about any potential prosecution of bush officials or will obama "officially" rule it out now.

he does not rule it out... but does say he's interested in looking forward. but also says he does not think anyone is above the law.

oh! i see ben smith of politico. good site....

and he ends at 8pm CST.

wow... what an interesting change of pace from the past 8 years. not smugness. no verbal fuck-ups. not bravado.

he was serious. he was compelling. he was specific about the stimulus package. a nice inaugural news conference.

and with that... we spell check and sign off.

it feels good to watch a competent, DEMOCRATIC president again.

e.

The Return of the Live Blog

yes, my lovelies... i've been missing in action. but i return to you with a special live-blog of president barack obama's first live news conference.

i'm informed by keith olbermann that the president is expected to talk for about 10 minutes before he starts to take questions from the salivating press.

we await the 44th president of the united states....

and here he is and away we go.....

4.7% to 15.3%
he immediately says we need to pass the stimulus package and referred to his stop in elkhart, indiana today. they have the fastest growing unemployment in the united states. it's risen from 4.7% to 15.3%.

he is laying out fact after fact. the number of jobs lost in january (over 500,000). the lack of money in individual's pockets to buy goods which then causes employers to lay off more people which results in less people with money in their pockets to buy the goods which causes more layoffs... well, you get the point.

specifics:
the stimulus package will ensure individuals who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own will continue to receive unemployment benefits and health coverage. $2,500 tax credits will go to individuals struggling to pay their college tuition. and finally, $1,000 in tax relief to working and middle class families.

tax cuts
obama points out that tax cuts alone have not helped over the past 8 years... especially when they're targeted to the richest individuals.

lots of talk about infrastructure and dams and bridges and wind turbines and fuel efficient cars.

firefighters, teachers....

god, i love liberal plans! welcome back!

over 90% of the jobs will be in the public sector... not in government.

and there's the rub
"my government inherited a deficit of over $1 trillion." keep reminding them of that, barack.

"doing little or nothing at all" will cause more job loss, more deficits, etc.

once again...a call for congress NOT to delay. (best of luck, barack!)

"we have to work together." (once again, good luck!)

nice first question from the AP. "do you lose credibility when you use such dire language?"

oh, nice answer. bringing up japan in the 90's and the "lost decade." he follows with the loss of 3.6 million jobs and the greatest "recession" since the great depression. but he makes sure to emphasize that he thinks we can pass a stimulus package and turn things around.

okay...once again answering criticisms. government MUST do something. it can't just stand by.

good, good... he brought up the need to get credit flowing again. without banks lending credit...all bets are off, people. there MUST be credit available to individuals and businesses.

this continual phrase "saving or creating 4 million jobs" worries me. we need to do more than save 4 million job. yes, that's a good start. but you need to CREATE jobs. i feel like that phrase leaves too much wriggle room.

hmmm, reuters goes second. (the first two questions are also asked by women. nice!) and foreign policy is the topic. a question about iran.

well, pretty tow the line answer. they're interested in nuclear weapons. they're fucking with israel. funding terrorists, including hezbollah. all options are on the table...but he emphasized, "that includes diplomacy."

come on... if you're not giving us anything new, move on!

he keeps taking some nice little jabs at bush and his failures with the economy and diplomacy and foreign policy.

and here's chip reid. what network is he with now...? is he still with nbc or msnbc? and it's a bipartisanship question... or a lack of it question.

"when i made overtures to both republican caucuses"...three republicans in my cabinet (unprecedented) and other ways he's built up trust. but currently, they are not interested in bipartisanship.

"i can't afford to see congress play the usual political games. what we have to do now is deliver for the american people." nice.....

remember george bush's constant smirk...? yeah, i don't miss it.

oops... he took a swipe at republicans... "when i hear this from individuals who presided over the doubling of the deficit" and once again reminds everyone he inherited the deficit. hammer it home, mr. president.

i'm happy to hear him say that certain environmental proposals are NOT wasteful spending... they create jobs immediately and reduce costs in the long run. same with helping move all medical records to electronic records... helping rebuild or improve schools. these create jobs.... and improve things in the long run.

i'm sorry.... i think he's doing one helluva job at selling this package.

ALL RIGHT! chucky t! chuck todd of nbc. my favorite. his question concerns the lack of help tax cuts will make if everyone is simply saving the money or using it to pay off debt. (this is why, by the way, tax cuts do NOT help alone. i know the GOP wants to sell this shit....but as rachel maddow says: "its bull pucky." and it is. you get more bang for your buck using federal spending than by giving tax cuts. over 50 cents more on the dollar.)

hmmm...so if chuck todd is there representing nbc... where is chip reid? abc? cbs? ahh... he moved to cbs in september 2007.

bloomberg news is next. no love for abc or fox (duh!). and a good question about the credit crisis and what to do with the remaining $350 billion in TARP.

lack of oversight and other problems are listed as reasons why it didn't help as much as it should have helped. the president wants to make sure the remaining money is spent wisely. and it will be "transparent" and with clear oversight.

i feel like i should post this and then start another one....i don't want to lose everything i've written.

oh...and there's abc. same question, asked a bit differently. something about all the legs of the stool in place. hmmm....

e.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Once More with Feeling!

well, because chief justice john roberts fucked up yesterday... and because you know conspiracy theorists and hardcore republicans would question it for the next four years if not performed again......

president barack obama took the oath of office for the second time today.

as cnn reports (and because it's too late for me to write the whole story myself):

The second oath -- also administered by Roberts -- took place at 7:35 p.m. Wednesday in the White House's Map Room. Roberts asked Obama whether he was ready.

"I am, and we're going to do it very slowly," Obama replied.

The do-over was aimed at dispelling any confusion that might arise from Tuesday's take -- in which "faithfully" was said out of sequence -- and erase any question that Obama is legally the president.

However, per the Constitution, Obama became president at noon Tuesday without taking the oath.

"We believe that the oath of office was administered effectively and that the president was sworn in appropriately yesterday," White House counsel Greg Craig said Wednesday in a written statement.

"But the oath appears in the Constitution itself. And out of an abundance of caution, because there was one word out of sequence, Chief Justice Roberts administered the oath a second time," the statement read.
i'm certain no president in history has had to take the oath a second time within a day of taking it the first time.....

do you think obama having voted against roberts' confirmation for the supreme court had anything to do with it?

who knows? well, at least we have that out of the way....

onward and upward!

e.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The Dress, At Last


so president barack obama and first lady michelle obama attended their first ball this evening, the neighborhood ball.

at 8:33pm, introduced by denzel washington and serenaded by beyonce singing etta james' "at last," the obama's kicked off a long night of inaugural balls.

and what has been the biggest question leading up to today's transition (i mean, beyond what type of dog the obamas will get)? what will michelle obama wear to the balls?

well, i'm, umm.... underwhelmed.

i dunno.... the dress isn't great. first off...it's white. i mean... i promised "IN COLOR!" and now.... it's kinda boring. and there are tiny things on it.. and just one shoulder... that shoulder strap almost wants to be a bjork swan song.

cnn reports:

The first lady was clad in a long white gown designed by up-and-coming designer Jason Wu. His design style combines modern lifestyle dressing and haute couture, according to his Web site.
but....judge for yourselves. what are your thoughts?

i mean... it's okay. but i was hoping for so much more.

i dunno? talk amongst yourselves....




e.

p.s. she still looks beautiful. what a stunning, strong woman. i can't wait to see her in action over the coming years.

For Those Wondering... II

if you've been watching closely all day.... you may wander what was in the white box with the red bow that the incoming first lady handed to the outgoing first lady first thing this morning.

well, the gift michelle obama handed to laura bush was a leather-bound journal and pen for mrs. bush to begin writing her memoirs in.

very nice.

also...just FYI. by the time obama finished delivering his inaugural address, the white house website underwent a change of its own:


e.

The Parade Continues

the obamas are done walking... they're now watching the parade from the observation platform. sasha and malia look like they're having the time of their life. they really are just a beautiful family.

there are bands from all 50 states and the grandeur continues.

oh - and there was an estimated 2 million people attending the inauguration today. amazing.

e.


update: senator ted kennedy is awake and alert. he is talking and they believe the seizure was brought on by fatigue. he should be released tomorrow morning from the hospital.

For Those Wondering...

shortly after being sworn in as the 44th president of the united states and delivering his inaugural address, president obama signed three documents.

these were his first three official acts as president and, for those who were wondering, included:

–-a proclamation declaring today a day of "national renewal and reconciliation."
–-a list of his cabinet nominations
–-a list of his sub-cabinet nominations

apparently, the last three presidents have signed similar proclamations upon being sworn in as president.

the list of cabinet nominations were to be presented to the senate this afternoon and are required for individuals to be confirmed.

while signing the documents, obama told those present: "i'm a lefty. get used to it." he also shared that he was told "not to swipe the pen."

e.

The Parade -or- He's Outta the Limo

at 4:04pm...the people's president stepped out of his limo and walked among the citizenry.

it's a gorgeous day in washington. cold, yes... but sunny and clear. just a beautiful picture.

and the obamas look superb. and the crowd is going INSANE! so much excitement in our nation's capitol.

at 4:12pm, president obama stepped back into the limo for this next leg of the parade. he will step out again later.

e.

History

for now...the public pomp and circumstance has ended.

what a moving ceremony. so much beauty... so much inspirational language.

a bit of a recap with some more specifics to come in other posts.

again, times are eastern:

11:57am justice john paul stevens gives the oath of office to joseph robinette biden, jr.

11:58am joe biden is vice president of the united states.

noon a beautiful arrangement by john williams is played by yo-yo ma and itzhak perlman.

12:05pm chief justice john roberts takes to the stage to swear in barack obama. i thought obama's nerves finally got to him as he fumbles some words. i was wrong. apparently, c.j. roberts fumbled the oath and obama caught the mistake and tried to correct it.

12:06pm barack obama is the 44th president of the united states. "hail to the chief" is played for obama for the first time.

what a day... what a moment.

e.

Time Out

i'll be taking about the next hour off to watch everthing. but i will be taking notes and will come back soon.

e.

p.s. rick warren is delivering the invocation. i've heard nothing controversial.

The Crowds



Obama

president-elect obama was just announced and took to the stage.

Heading to the Capitol

barack obama is en route to the capitol for the swearing in. but mostly, i just really liked the above photo.

interesting tidbit...the car transporting obama has holes in the doors where the presidential seal will go. the car cannot yet have the seal on it.

e.

The Attendees

it's 9:44am central time and i finally found time to pour my first cup of coffee. so i'm feeling better.

as you can imagine, there are a lot of top-tier politicians, celebrities, etc. at this inauguration for the 44th president of the united states.

seen so far: mohammed ali, dustin hoffman, steven spielberg, john kerry, BILL & HILLARY CLINTON, caroline, kennedy, chris dodd....

dick cheney just popped out from the pits of hell.... apparently, he hurt himself packing up and he's now in a wheelchair. maybe he's trying to get some pity to help out his exiting approval rating of 13%?

e.

p.s. note to andrea mitchell: when speaking to governor david paterson, don't use the phrase: "you're seeing history made here today." maybe choose the word "witnessing" when speaking to a blind man?

The Lincoln Metaphor

as anyone who has watched any coverage since obama won the presidential election knows... the man loves himself some abe lincoln.

and why not? he's from the land of lincoln. lincoln played a part in making his journey possible with the emancipation proclamation.

so....it's no surprise that his inaugural picks up where all the discussion of lincoln/obama/doris kearns goodwin's team of rivals left off.

he rode the train to washington following lincoln's trip.

he held a kick-off concert at the lincoln memorial on sunday.

he will be sworn in on the same bible which lincoln used to take the oath of office.

but...a little tidbit from our good friends at nbc. apparently, when obama dined with the conservative, media elite last week at george will's home... well, mr. will owns a glass that belonged to president lincoln.

and guess what? mr. obama drank from the glass.

i suppose if you have to be obsessed with a president.....

oh, wait...another tidbit from nbc's kelly o'donnell: the obama's will dine on the lincoln china this evening.

e.

Live Blogging the Inaugural

good morning, my lovelies.... and it is a BEAUTIFUL morning.

today is the day... we've been waiting for eight years. a democrat takes back the white house...

others have been waiting even longer... over 40 years since dr. king shared his dream of individuals being judged by their character, not the color of their skin. and history is made today as an african american is sworn in for the first time as president of the united states.

i've taken the day off and hope to live blog much of the day for those of you who were unable to watch it all. and...ganesha help me...i plan to watch all day.

they'll be short entries. but some insight (i hope).

shortly before 10am (i'll do eastern times even though i'm central), president elect obama arrived at the white house to have coffee with out-going (yay!) president george w. bush.

michelle obama arrived in a lemongrass-colored dress with a gift for mrs. bush. mrs. bush has on a light blue dress. george in a blue tie. mr. obama in a red.

what a beautiful tradition.... a calm, cordial coffee... a peaceful transition.

more to come.

e.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Notes From All Over: Political Edition

after obama won the democratic primary fight i purchased an obama magnet to put on my car. it has been displayed there ever since... but i've always joked with my friends that i bought the magnet because if obama ever disappointed me...i could take it off and put it back on once the feeling had passed.

the obama magnet is in the trunk.

the purpose driven inauguration
so obama has asked evangelical, bigot rick warren to deliver the invocation at his inauguration. well, fuck you too.

warren runs one of those evangelical monstrosities out in california...the bareback or saddleback church... something like that.

he was also one of the leading voices in support of prop8 out in california and has used strong, divisive language when discussing homosexuality. he called his defense of "traditional marriage" "a moral issue that god has spoken clearly about."

andrew sullivan, the openly gay obamacan, said "if anyone is under any illusion that obama is interested in advancing gay equality, they should probably sober up now."

obama himself has tried desperately to defend his choice:

obama mentioned that warren asked him to speak at saddleback church two years ago eventhough obama has beliefs "that were entirely contrary to his." right...two years ago before you were even the democratic nominee. not at an inauguration that will be watched around the world. not at the precise moment when you're supposed to move this country forward and start the "change" you've been preaching.

no...warren seems like a spectre of the bush years kicking off your big day.

obama also said, "we're not going to agree on every single issue, but what we have to do is to be able to create an atmosphere when we can disagree without being disagreeable and then focus on those things that we hold in common as americans."

yes...we fags can be so disagreeable.

what pisses me off is that this is the issue obama seems okay to set aside for his inauguration. this is the issue that clearly does not concern him enough to make an effort to not ask a leading homophobe to provide the invocation.

i am fearful that obama simply does not give a flying fuck about equal rights for homosexuals in this country.

will he even carry through with his promise to repeal "don't ask, don't tell?"

his transition team met with leaders from the GLBT community yet there has not been a single, openly gay individual posted to his cabinet.... despite my earlier post which lead us to some optimism in this regard.

obama's invitation to rick warren to play such a pivotal role in his inauguration (and don't even get me started on why there's an invocation and benediction at the inauguration of the president of the united states when there's supposed to be a separation of church and state) just shows obama's lack of empathy or support or whatever you want to call it....solidarity? with the gay and lesbian community.

a large number of us supported hillary in the primary and then happily (or begrudgingly) backed him in the general... but this large voting block that helped usher him into the white house is the first group to get a giant "fuck you" from the president-elect.

call it political savvy or maneuvering or whatever... i'm afraid he just doesn't care.

the clintons, the bushes and the saudis
so records from president bill clinton's foundation and library have been released. turns out he's received millions from the saudis. what a shock.

but what amazes me even more is that the republicans.... even the media... seem to want to make a big deal out of this.

"can hillary stand up the saudis as secretary of state when her husband received so much money from them?"

if these questions are to be raised by the media and the republicans...we must yell "foul!"

were these questions ever asked of president bush with all the connections his father has with the saudis? no.

ex-presidents who continue to play an active role on the international stage will have ties with other countries. bush41 and clinton have them...

if anything...i'd say poppy bush being in bed with king abdullah played an enormous role in bush43's blind acceptance of the atrocities carried out every day in saudi arabia.

but hillary has never been under the thumb of bill...and i see no reason why any donations (charitable or otherwise) to her husband would make any difference in her negotiations with any country.

hillary is one tough broad. that's why i love her...

she will be a great secretary of state. (she would've been an even better president. but there's still time for that....)

farewell, deep throat
w. mark felt...a.k.a. deep throat, has passed. the man who leaked information regarding president tricky dick and watergate was 95. felt admitted he was the linda lovelace of the political world in 2005.

caroline, or change
so the last-living spawn of john f. kennedy wants to be senator from the empire state.

well, la-de-da.

i have mixed feelings on this. initially i loved the idea of caroline kennedy serving in the senate. but then i started thinking more about it.

sure...she's an intelligent woman. a constitutional scholar and lawyer. an advocate for education and schools.

but where has her voice been over the past eight years? where was she during the dark days of the democratic party?

my friend sally sent me a great article from the huffington post that said caroline was silent during all this time but now that everything is coming up roses...she wants to be an active member of the democratic party.

and not just any member... a senator from one of the most powerful states in the country. a senator from new york is no small thing.

but i have a bigger concern. this is hillary clinton's seat. hillary.

who did caroline support in the primary? obama....

in fact, several pundits may say that caroline and teddy kennedy's support of obama was a major turning point in the primary campaign.

so should hillary's seat go to someone who isn't even a supporter?

sure....now caroline is saying she's an obama/clinton/kennedy democrat... but are we really sure about that middle one?

of course, nobody's opinion really matters but that of governor paterson. he has the sole discretion to pick hillary's successor. and i heard some reporting last night that it's a done deal: the seat belongs to caroline if she wants it.

i can't say having another liberal kennedy in the senate is a bad thing...especially with teddy's future in question.

all i'm saying is...i have questions about caroline. and if she wants to be the senator from the tough as nails state of new york.... she better buck up, stop running from the press.... and flash us her balls (and i say that in a metaphorical, funny "ha-ha" way and not a sexist, anti-feminist "you need balls to be successful" way).

in conclusion
only 32 more days until that fucker is out of office.

that, at least, makes me happy this morning.

e.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Keep It Gay, Keep It Gay, Keep It Gay...

i seem to be obsessed lately.... but since i seem to be on the subject of gayness, here's an exclusive from mike allen of politico:

Gay and lesbian activists, who had been getting a bit restless about the Obama transition’s centrism, were welcomed into transition headquarters yesterday for a big meeting with John Podesta, who’s leading the transition, and Jim Messina, personnel director of the transition and a deputy chief of staff in the new White House. Participants said afterward that the session, which drew about 60 attendees and a cadre of senior Obama advisers, was very positive and productive. A prominent lesbian activist will chair the White House Council on Environmental Quality. And at the meeting, Obama officials said they’re giving serious consideration to two favorites of the community – John Berry for Interior and Mary Beth Maxwell for Labor.
and that's just plain secretary of the interior... not secretary of the interior design, my lovelies. and if anyone knows about labor, it's those hardworking lesbians. sister epiphenita of the power tools and st. barbara are DIYing their garage apartment repairs...

so butch.....

e.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Delayed Post Election Coitus

my friend james sent me the above cartoon and said it reminded him of me... and sadly, i admit, i've already looked at some polls for who the GOP consider their best bet for 2012.

but the madness has to end... i understand... or, at the very least, the madness needs to take a short vacation.

however, between finalizing work and other odds and ends before a trip... not to mention taking the trip out to san francisco... i never really had a chance to dissect and revisit the 2008 election.

there were some definite high points...to begin: obama's historic victory.

did everyone notice the odd uptick in optimism around the country after obama's win? even republicans seemed cheered.....

and everywhere people were saying: "now, every parent in the united states can tell their child, 'when you grow up...you can be anything you want to be.'"

unless you're a woman, of course. sexism still rules....

i'd also like to point out that my electoral map proved correct, save missouri. so i was only off by 10 electoral votes... i'm also waiting on two senate races to see if my prediction of a net gain of 8 senate seats for the dems holds true.

i have little hope for georgia but i'm still hoping al franken can eek out a win in minnesota.

i've become a bit obsessed with the passage of prop8 out in california. i'd also like to mention that both florida and arizona passed laws banning same sex marriage and arkansas passed a law forbidding homosexuals from adopting children.

will we soon be faced with another attempt at a briggs-type law? will it be a national movement this time? will we soon seek to outlaw homosexuals from teaching again?

i mean, everyone seems so fucking frightened of the queer effect on children. fags can't marry because of the children. dykes can't adopt because of the children.

save the children!

it makes me want to shout a collective "fuck you" to everyone....

i mean, let's ignore the fact that most pedophiles are actually straight men... let's ignore the ever-growing list of straight, female teachers who are sleeping with their under-aged students.

let's try to forget that the divorce rate is around (what?) 60% in this country...

why don't the breeders of our country worry about getting their own house in order before they start accusing us of the downfall of society?

my friend james and i attended an anti-prop8 rally while in san francisco this past saturday... we were joined by 7,500 other individuals outside the SF city hall... and countless others across the nation (including some very dear friends here in houston).

i really find an overwhelming sense of anger boil up inside me whenever i think about these anti-gay measures that have passed. just when you think we're taking giant steps forward....we're smacked backwards by the hands of bigots and zealots.

and it's not just the mormon church... 70% of the large african american turnout for obama in california also voted to discriminate against homosexuals.

apparently, they can overcome but we cannot.....

and i don't mean to diminish the struggle of the african american people. fuck knows they've had it beyond horrible for centuries.... and just because obama won doesn't mean there's no longer racism or injustice and inequality for black people.

but should any "vulnerable minority" - as dan savage puts it - be marginalized by any oppressive majority? even those made up of other oppressed minorities?

i am a second class citizen.

i pay my taxes... i work... i give back... i fight and stand up for equal rights for racial minorities and women.... yet i remain a second class citizen.

where is my american dream....?

yes, there was much to cheer for on the evening of november 4, 2008.... but i still find a lingering and bile taste in my mouth two weeks later.

i've told some friends that i think the combination of the hateful passage of prop8, paired with the upcoming release of the movie milk about slain homosexual leader and activist, harvey milk, may lead to a rebirth of action and protest on behalf of equal rights for ALL americans....

i say it's time.

stop H8.

take action.

we can't afford to be silent....

we must stand up for ourselves....

it's become obvious that no one else gives two shits.

e.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Countdown to the Election: 1 Day

well, holy shit... did you ever think the day would come...? we are just one day away from choosing the next president of the united states.

yes, tomorrow is election day 2008.

we're only one day away. one day! we were SO close... but there it was. when i woke up this morning.......

the GOP is running a jeremiah wright ad in pennsylvania. and, actually, i've seen another GOP ad featuring jeremiah wright at least twice tonight on msnbc... and i think nbc.

so.....we almost made it. i mean, it was getting pretty ugly, sure. but we had avoided wright.

but the republican party never fails to sink lower and lower. they are, truly, despicable.

anyway...shame on you... and on to the polls.

realclearpolitics.com currently has an estimated 278 electoral votes for obama and 132 electoral votes for mccain. that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama with 128 toss-up votes remaining.

without toss-ups...RCP has the electoral map you see above. they predict 338 electoral votes for obama and 200 for mccain. that's a lead of 138 electoral votes for obama and that's a decisive victory.

when we look at the RCP average of recent polls....the numbers break down as follows:

obama 51.6%
mccain 44.3%

as you can see...the polls have widened again and obama is up 7.3 percentage points over mccain heading into election day. in fact, out of the 14 polls they've gathered over the past couple of days...obama stands over 50% in all but one.

now...i actually think this map is a bit safe. in this final evening before the election, i've decided not to play it safe. below is my prediction for the outcome of tomorrow's election.


okay, i admit this may be overly optimistic...but this is my prediction. it's not the 390 electoral votes predicted by the dailykos....but it's ambitious.

my numbers come out with 375 electoral votes for the obama/biden ticket and 163 electoral votes for mccain/palin.

i've moved missouri, indiana and north carolina into obama's column.

let me start by saying i know a lot of people have been saying the polls are tightening... and in some states they are...although they're not nationally.

of course, as i've been hammering home....national numbers don't mean much. it comes down to the states.

but most polls are made up of "likely voters." the scenario for "likely voters" is derived from looking at who voted in the two prior elections. i don't think those scenarios accurately depict who will be voting this year.

they don't take into account a larger african-american turn-out. or the likely turn-out of a large number of younger voters. i should also point out, speaking of younger voters, polls only contact individuals with landlines. most college students who are crazy/enthusiastic for obama will not have a landline.

this is an HUGE population which i think will FINALLY show up at the polls and they're largely being ignored in the polling data.

i also think the overwhelming disgust the democratic party feels after suffering through the past 8 years will draw an amazing (and record-breaking) turn-out at the polls.

so...let's look at these three states quickly:

RCP currently has mccain up a mere 0.5% over obama in missouri (48% mccain, 47.5% obama). consistently, however, obama has tracked higher than mccain. and in two recent polls, fox news/rasmussen and surveyUSA, mccain and obama are tied. reuters/zogby actually has obama up by 1 point.

i just think turn-out will nudge obama over the top in this bell-weather state.

north carolina also has mccain up by a mere 0.6% over obama. again...this is another state where obama has been tracking high up until just a day or two ago.

taking into account that polls almost always tighten towards the end....i just trust the prior trend of obama leading. in fact, he was leading up until yesterday.

i think it might just be an odd hiccup in the polls. i think turn-out again will be the key. it will be close...but i think democrats will be disgusted not just by eight years of bush/cheney but also the ads being run by elizabeth dole. this will help increase the democratic turn-out and push him ahead. but by very little.

and finally...indiana. i've discussed this state before (and another shout-out here to rebecca. congrats on the colts' win over the pats last night!) and i stand by my prediction that obama will win.

this is another state where obama has been tracking up.... now the polls currently have mccain up 1.4% (47.6% mccain, 46.2% obama) with PPP(D) showing obama up +1 and reuters/zogby showing mccain up +5. however, two recent polls (ARG and downs center/surveyUSA) have the race tied.

i just think looking at national polls which show a sharp increase in the numbers for obama and the general tracking of obama leading in most polls until just the past couple of days....

not to mention all the early voting in 31 states which probably doesn't reflect the current polls....

i'm just thinking tomorrow night is a good night for obama.

and i use the term "good" relatively. afterall...tomorrow night, no matter the outcome, will be a somber evening for senator obama who lost his grandmother earlier today.

this is the woman who helped raise obama and it must be incredibly sad for everyone that she will not be around to see her grandson, very possibly, make history.

tomorrow is a huge day. and i know there's been a lot of hype but this is a truly historic election.... and probably the most important election in our lifetime.

so VOTE!

and hopefully....you'll vote for:

obama/biden 08!

e.