Happy Election Day!

Vote!

Vote!

VOTE!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 1 Day

well, holy shit... did you ever think the day would come...? we are just one day away from choosing the next president of the united states.

yes, tomorrow is election day 2008.

we're only one day away. one day! we were SO close... but there it was. when i woke up this morning.......

the GOP is running a jeremiah wright ad in pennsylvania. and, actually, i've seen another GOP ad featuring jeremiah wright at least twice tonight on msnbc... and i think nbc.

so.....we almost made it. i mean, it was getting pretty ugly, sure. but we had avoided wright.

but the republican party never fails to sink lower and lower. they are, truly, despicable.

anyway...shame on you... and on to the polls.

realclearpolitics.com currently has an estimated 278 electoral votes for obama and 132 electoral votes for mccain. that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama with 128 toss-up votes remaining.

without toss-ups...RCP has the electoral map you see above. they predict 338 electoral votes for obama and 200 for mccain. that's a lead of 138 electoral votes for obama and that's a decisive victory.

when we look at the RCP average of recent polls....the numbers break down as follows:

obama 51.6%
mccain 44.3%

as you can see...the polls have widened again and obama is up 7.3 percentage points over mccain heading into election day. in fact, out of the 14 polls they've gathered over the past couple of days...obama stands over 50% in all but one.

now...i actually think this map is a bit safe. in this final evening before the election, i've decided not to play it safe. below is my prediction for the outcome of tomorrow's election.


okay, i admit this may be overly optimistic...but this is my prediction. it's not the 390 electoral votes predicted by the dailykos....but it's ambitious.

my numbers come out with 375 electoral votes for the obama/biden ticket and 163 electoral votes for mccain/palin.

i've moved missouri, indiana and north carolina into obama's column.

let me start by saying i know a lot of people have been saying the polls are tightening... and in some states they are...although they're not nationally.

of course, as i've been hammering home....national numbers don't mean much. it comes down to the states.

but most polls are made up of "likely voters." the scenario for "likely voters" is derived from looking at who voted in the two prior elections. i don't think those scenarios accurately depict who will be voting this year.

they don't take into account a larger african-american turn-out. or the likely turn-out of a large number of younger voters. i should also point out, speaking of younger voters, polls only contact individuals with landlines. most college students who are crazy/enthusiastic for obama will not have a landline.

this is an HUGE population which i think will FINALLY show up at the polls and they're largely being ignored in the polling data.

i also think the overwhelming disgust the democratic party feels after suffering through the past 8 years will draw an amazing (and record-breaking) turn-out at the polls.

so...let's look at these three states quickly:

RCP currently has mccain up a mere 0.5% over obama in missouri (48% mccain, 47.5% obama). consistently, however, obama has tracked higher than mccain. and in two recent polls, fox news/rasmussen and surveyUSA, mccain and obama are tied. reuters/zogby actually has obama up by 1 point.

i just think turn-out will nudge obama over the top in this bell-weather state.

north carolina also has mccain up by a mere 0.6% over obama. again...this is another state where obama has been tracking high up until just a day or two ago.

taking into account that polls almost always tighten towards the end....i just trust the prior trend of obama leading. in fact, he was leading up until yesterday.

i think it might just be an odd hiccup in the polls. i think turn-out again will be the key. it will be close...but i think democrats will be disgusted not just by eight years of bush/cheney but also the ads being run by elizabeth dole. this will help increase the democratic turn-out and push him ahead. but by very little.

and finally...indiana. i've discussed this state before (and another shout-out here to rebecca. congrats on the colts' win over the pats last night!) and i stand by my prediction that obama will win.

this is another state where obama has been tracking up.... now the polls currently have mccain up 1.4% (47.6% mccain, 46.2% obama) with PPP(D) showing obama up +1 and reuters/zogby showing mccain up +5. however, two recent polls (ARG and downs center/surveyUSA) have the race tied.

i just think looking at national polls which show a sharp increase in the numbers for obama and the general tracking of obama leading in most polls until just the past couple of days....

not to mention all the early voting in 31 states which probably doesn't reflect the current polls....

i'm just thinking tomorrow night is a good night for obama.

and i use the term "good" relatively. afterall...tomorrow night, no matter the outcome, will be a somber evening for senator obama who lost his grandmother earlier today.

this is the woman who helped raise obama and it must be incredibly sad for everyone that she will not be around to see her grandson, very possibly, make history.

tomorrow is a huge day. and i know there's been a lot of hype but this is a truly historic election.... and probably the most important election in our lifetime.

so VOTE!

and hopefully....you'll vote for:

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 2 Days

good evening, my lovelies.... please forgive the late post but the heartache had to continue today.

not only did texas lose to tech last night in the final seconds... but the texans lost today to the vikings. just not a good weekend for football. except the cowboys. they lost... that's always nice.

oh... and i'd like to take a moment to say i don't really understand why everyone gets so excited when the clocks "fall back." there seems to be a delusion out there that you get an extra hour of sleep.

um, no you don't... you just wake up an hour earlier... i didn't wake up at 8 this morning. i woke up at 7. yeah... so now i'm waiting for my normal bedtime but i've actually been up an hour longer..........

bodies become attuned to the internal clock, people.

but anyway.....on to politics. some interesting developments from realclearpolitics.com.

and people...i beg of you to visit this site. i realize all of the 24 hour news channels seem to be breaking news with montana now a toss-up and arizona now a toss-up. yeah... i know. RCP is way ahead of you.

jesus... i think i'm a bit cranky all of the sudden.

anyway.... the really interesting development is not the number of traditional red states that continue to fall out of the mccain column....but the two blue states that have been taken out of the obama column.

this morning....RCP took ohio and virginia out of the "leaning obama" column. a HUGE development.

so the electoral map...with toss-ups...looks thus:

obama 278
mccain 132

so that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama...and still over the needed number of 270. but we now have 128 electoral votes considered "toss ups."

without toss-ups...we're looking at an estimated 353 electoral votes for obama and only 185 for mccain. watching the sunday morning talk shows today...these numbers seem to be the going prediction.

now, while obama is losing points in the estimated electoral map...he is gaining points in most national polls. he currently stands 50.7% to 44.3% over mccain, or +6.4%.

i also wanted to put up the racial voting breakdown as polled by gallup. interesting numbers which might explain why obama should win come sunday.

african americans: 91% obama, 4% mccain
hispanic: 65% obama, 27% mccain
white: 44% obama, 50% mccain

with such large numbers in certain populations overwhelmingly going for obama... it's a hard road to 270 for mccain.

but let's look today at the two states taken away from obama (at least for now) and why they've been recategorized as "toss-ups."

ohio, of course, was the big story from 2004. RCP average of polls currently has obama at 48.8% and mccain at 44.6% (or +4.2 obama). now....while recent polls from la times/bloomberg has obama up 9 points (49% to mccain's 40%) and a fox news/rasmussen poll has obama up by 4 points (49% to 45%).... a new poll out today from mason-dixon shows mccain up by 2 (45% obama, 47% mccain).

that's not a tightening of the polls...that's a reversal.

now...this is only one poll, but it's enough to question where ohio might go. therefore, ohio is back in the questionable column.

in virginia we're looking at more of a tightening... RCP average still has obama up +3.8% (49.8% to mccain's 46%). and, in fact...obama still leads in all polls.

that lead has just dropped from a 6 or 7 point lead down to less than 4 points.

mason-dixon has obama up by three but the latest polls from surveyUSA, fox news/rasmussen and marist all have obama up by 4 points. in fact, surveyUSA has obama at 50% and the other two have obama coming in with 51% of the vote.

anytime you have over 50%....you're generally golden.

so, yes, mccain has closed the gap. just yesterday obama was up 51% to 45% on average. but with polls still coming in with him garnering more than 50% of the vote... i don't fret much.

my prediction.... obama snags both ohio and virginia.

some other predictions...since they did this on this week today... i agree with most that the democrats will gain a net 8 seats in the senate. this will bring their total to 59 seats... one shy of the 60 seat filibuster/veto proof majority.

i also expect a net gain of over 20 additional blue seats in the house.

races of note: watch for former SNL alum al franken to beat norm coleman in minnesota. watch for hagan to defeat dole in NC. stevens (the longest serving GOP member of the senate) should lose his seat in alaska thanks to the guilty verdicts... and the most interesting race could be if the GOP leader in the senate, mitch mcconnell of kentucky, loses his seat on tuesday to wealthy businessman bruce lunsford.

so..... while the numbers are still very fluid - i'm still optimistic looking ahead.

i'm not ready to jinx anything and i still believe in being cautious. and....for vishnu's sake... you still need to VOTE!

but... things appear to be looking good.

see you tomorrow. get some sleep.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: Days 4 & 3

my apologies, fellow politicos. yesterday was halloween and i was simply too busy thinking about chocolate and watching psycho dwarfs in red raincoats tormenting donald sutherland to post.

so today we'll tackle two states.... but let me tell you why. the last two days i have set my browser to realclearpolitics.com and noticed something odd in the electoral map.

mccain's numbers have been shrinking....

first RCP took georgia off the map. back in the toss-up column. then i looked this morning... and i had heard grumblings about this possibility. but there it was. arizona was no longer red. no longer even slightly red...

mccain's home state of arizona is back in the toss-up column.

that puts the current RCP estimate of electoral votes as obama with 311 and mccain at 132...with 95 toss-up votes. that's a net positive of 179 electoral votes for obama.

no toss-ups? 353 for obama and 185 for mccain. that's a net positive of 168 electoral votes for obama....

the national polls....again - just a reminder that they don't mean much - it's the states....

obama 50.2%
mcccain 43.6%.

again...+6.6 points for obama. that's pretty much standing steady....

oh - and just so we cover the topic. i know several people are still worried about a possible "bradley effect." and looking back over history, i understand why...

most pundits believe that an african american candidate needs to have a net positive of at least 5 points in the poll to be safe from any hidden racism.

but one of my favorite columnists...gail collins of the times...points out something beautiful in her column today. while she doesn't dismiss the fact that some people may be afraid to tell a perfect stranger over the phone they won't vote for a black candidate... would those same people go so far as to say they think obama is better for the economy, taxes, health care, etc...?

as gail says: that "seem[s] like a lot of effort to impress a stranger on the other end of a telephone line."

so...i tentatively think we can put the bradley effect to bed. at least... i hope.

anyway - back to the states.

let's begin with georgia...where i have no friends to which i should "shout out."

georgia currently stands obama 46% and mccain 49%. it's a net positive of 3 points for mccain. that's a single digit lead for a fucking republican in fucking georgia.

so...the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up +5 (52% to 47%) and the latest research2000 poll has mccain up a mere 3 points (47% to 44%).

this is a state that should go red and should hold a stronger lead for mccain. but i think african american turnout could make this an interesting race.

do i think obama could steal georgia's 15 electoral votes? i'm doubtful.... but it makes for an interesting campaign.

so arizona.... actually, another state with no connections for me.

arizona...mccain's home state....is down to a single digit lead. RCP has mccain up by a mere 3.5 points in their average of polls. mccain 49.3% to obama 45.8%.

the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up by 5 points (51% to 46%) and the research2000 poll has mccain up... are you ready for this...? by just 1 point. mccain 48%, obama 47%.

this. is. fascinating....

i really can't imagine mccain loses arizona and its 10 electoral votes. i mean... he's been a senator from there for such a long time.

but could a large hispanic vote (yes, hispanic vote) tip things for obama?

this could all really come down to turn-out. if obama...who has an amazing ground operation in almost every state...can get his supporters out in a larger number than mccain... he could just upset some states.

(was that just a john madden/painfully obvious statement...? "what needs to happen is...the green jerseys need to move the ball down the field and the white jerseys need to stop them. boom!")

anyway... i'm predicting both of these states to go red come tuesday... but i love that obama is forcing mccain to spend money in so many states that should be solidly red.

this election...i'm telling you...from the primaries all the way through tuesday... it's simply one of the most fascinating, wild, unpredictable races in recent history.

i hope you're paying attention. this one is going down in the history books.

VOTE!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 5 Days

good evening, my lovelies... let me begin by saying i no longer like this new, hot doctor on grey's anatomy. i'm sorry, but you stab four defenseless pigs and you lose me. what can i say? on the upside...izzie is finding her way back on my good side. "flipper babies" - beautiful.

but anyway, on to the polls....

the latest national polls stand as follows:

obama: 49.7%
mccain: 43.8%

so...we're looking at a net positive of 5.9% for obama... pretty much the same.

the electoral map also remains, basically, the same. with toss-ups: obama 311 to mccain's 142 (+169, obama). that leaves 85 toss up votes. without toss-ups, a slight change: obama holds a net positive of 190 votes with 364 electoral votes to mccain's 174. i believe realclearpolitics has placed indiana back in mccain's column. i'm holding out hope.

but tonight's toss-up state...with a shout-out to my lovely feminist friend, carey...is north carolina.

once again...north carolina is generally a red state. but things are looking good for the dems this season.

as prologue: let's take a quick look at the senatorial race. that daffy cunt liddy dole is in a tough race against democrat kay hagan. today's rasmussen actually has hagan up six points over dole: 52% to 46%.

dole is so desperate, as are so many republicans, that she has gone to the airwaves accusing hagan of accepting "godless money" because she attended a fundraiser and received a donation from an atheist! dole even has an actress saying "there is no god" over a picture of hagan...implying hagan has said (and believes) just that.

well, hagan has hit back saying she doesn't want to focus on such nonsense when she knows she's a good christian woman and the people of north carolina want to talk about jobs and the economy. and she ends the ad by saying she approves the message because she doesn't believe is "baring false witness against a fellow christian."

oh, snap!

it's a beautiful retort and much stronger than the pathetic initial ad my dole. but it highlights the trouble republicans are having maintaining their hold on this once reliable red state.

the latest polls out of north carolina have obama at 49% and mccain at 46%. that's a mere 3 point lead for obama.... out of an average of several polls. so let's look at the polls:

the latest rasmussen has obama up by 2. the cnn/time poll has obama with a net 6 points over mccain. reuters/zogby have obama up by 4 and the AP has obama up by just 2 points.

an nbc/mason-dixon poll from the 22nd is the last poll that gave mccain any good news at all in north carolina...and that was a tie.

charlie cook likes to say take the difference between the high and low and you generally see where the polls really stand... that comes out to the RCP average of 3 points for obama.

what i'm trying to say is....it appears next tuesday should be a good night for the dems in north carolina.

my prediction: obama wins north carolina and its 15 electoral points.

bonus prediction: kay hagan mops the floor with elizabeth dole.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 6 Days

well, not long ago barack obama debuted his 30-minute campaign ad on most of the major networks. (actually - all major networks except ABC, which if fine because i was able to DVR my pushing daisies.)

i was worried about the "infomercial" but i thought it was very powerful. moving and informative... just beautifully produced.... well done, sir.

but let's look at numbers... six days out.

first, the general numbers: the national polls have tightened slightly with obama up 6 points over mccain...49.9% to 43.9%. however....realclearpolitics.com now has the electoral map favoring obama even more:

w/ toss-ups: obama 311, mccain 142 (obama +169)
no toss-ups: obama 375, mccain 163 (obama +212)

now....there aren't many toss-up states left. obama's lead in colorado has increased to double-digits and is now in the obama column. new hampshire is solidly obama.

but which states are still toss-ups? well....let's focus tonight on indiana (and at this point i give a shout-out to my colts-lovin' friend rebecca).

indiana is a neighboring state of illinois which everyone thought would go to obama throughout the primaries... it's also been a solidly red state since the 80's.

but wait...

realclearpolitics has their latest average of indiana polls thus:

obama: 47.4%
mccain: 46%

that's a net positive of just 1.4% for obama. however...just a week ago, the average on 10/21, had mccain up 48.8% to 45%.

so what's changed...? and is 1.4% enough to guarantee a blue indiana?

i think indiana truly remains a toss-up state... perhaps the last toss-up in the midwest where all the other states are turning a darker shade of blue.

it's a red state, true, but the midwest is being hit hard by the economy which all polls show favors obama.

so let's look inside the numbers. the most recent poll out by reuters has mccain up +10. but the big 10 battleground poll has obama up +10. and research 2000 has obama up by just 1 point.

so we have a net positive of 1.4% for obama....

indiana has 11 electoral votes... 11 votes will not do much to help mccain win the election in 6 days.

so....does indiana matter? it may not... obama can win without the state. mccain can still lose with it.

but it would be nice to see obama sweep the midwest and turn another red state blue.

i'm gonna make a call and say indiana goes blue on november 4th.

and we'll know if i'm right in just 6 days....

stay tuned for another state tomorrow. and if you have early voting....get out there and vote!

obama/biden 08!

e.

Countdown to the Election: 7 Days

it's hard to believe that the campaign of the past TWO YEARS is quickly coming to an end.

first it appeared hillary clinton looked inevitable. then obama won iowa and he was inevitable. then hillary came back and won new hampshire and it was anybody's game until obama finally wrapped up the nomination after a very long primary fight.

mccain was dead two summers ago before he rose up from the pits of hell to snag the GOP nomination.

would hillary be obama's running mate....?

who the fuck is this sarah palin....?

as each question was answered, two or three more would appear...

but here we are. just one week away from knowing who the next president of the united states will be. and things seem to be coming into focus.

the brilliant charlie cook (who is one of the best political minds out there) probably put it best this weekend when he wrote:

For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.

the numbers we've seen over the past couple of months is just the type of surge obama can get behind. and i'd like to spend the next week looking closely at the numbers, possibly focusing on a specific state that remains "in play" each day.

but for today... i'd like to focus on just the big numbers. drawing information consistently from realclearpolitics.com, the race currently stands thus:

obama 50.6%
mccain 43.6%

that's a 7% lead for obama. but as we've all learned from 2000...the popular vote means shit when choosing the next POTUS.

so how does the electoral map look...?

realclearpolitics currently has a definitive 306 electoral votes for obama and 157 for mccain. that's a net positive of 149 electoral votes for obama. but remember: you only need 270 electoral votes to become president.

so does that mean obama wins....? look back at cook's quote.... the answer almost has to be yes, right? i mean...those are numbers WITH toss-up states. let's take out the toss-up states and you see why cook says we're looking at an impressive trajectory.

without toss-up states, obama has 375 electoral votes to mccain's 163... that's a net positive of 212 electoral votes!

that's the upper deck, my friends (to steal a phrase from mccain).

so does obama win? can anything snatch this democratic slam dunk (to mix metaphors) from the jaws of victory? should we still fear a bradley effect?

in the coming days.... we'll focus on other issues playing into the november 4th election and focus in on a few key states.

but, my fellow dems....it's lookin' good.

obama/biden 08!

e.

Wake Up, Dems!

everywhere i go, i hear the same thing. "she's not electable." "i'm just afraid she can't win." and these are bright people. politically aware people. why then, i have to ask, do they think hillary clinton can't win in 2008?

look at the numbers, people!

the results of the latest cnn/opinion research corporation poll out this week show that clinton is viewed as the most electable candidate AND the one most likely to bring about change to the country. from cnn:

Asked which of the candidates in the race has the best experience to be president, Clinton was the choice of 59 percent, compared to 11 percent for former Sen. John Edwards and just 9 percent for Sen. Barack Obama, who is now running second to Clinton in national polls. The poll's sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

not convinced? what about this?

When asked to pick the strongest leader, Clinton again scored far ahead of her rivals, at 47 percent, compared with 22 percent for Obama and 13 percent for Edwards. She also came out on top when voters were asked who is most qualified to be commander-in-chief, with 46 percent saying Clinton, 15 percent Obama and 13 percent Edwards.

and in response to the all important "change" question: 40% think hillary is the candidate most likely to bring about change, compared with 27% and 15% for obama and edwards, respectively.

oh - and for my friends who think barack is more of a "straight shooter" than my girl. the same cnn poll finds 28% of people said hillary is the most honest candidate with 24% for barack and 19% for john.

from the latest harris interactive poll of 1,113 democrats surveyed, when asked for whom would they vote:

43% clinton
27% obama
12% edwards

nationally, cnn is reporting that an average taken from five national polls shows clinton tops guiliani 46% to 44%. a new quinnipaic poll shows hill beating punch n' rudy 46% to 43%.

so, seriously! why the doubt?

peter boyer of the new yorker made a fascinating observation to chris matthews yesterday. "i think it's interesting, in a way," mr. boyer said, "mrs. clinton has gone further down the road of convincing people that she might be an effective commander-in-chief than she has in convincing democrats that she can win. and that is a real problem." he went on to say that hill is her own wedge issue.

so again, i have to ask: why are dems so down on her? if these national polls show us anything - it's how electable hillary has become and how people see her as strong and effective. just looking at the cnn poll: hillary tops obama and edwards COMBINED when viewed as a strong leader. 59% of people said she is the most experience. 59 percent! again - obama and edwards garner 20% COMBINED! hillary beats rudy in most if not all national polls.

obama simply cannot compete with the experience question. and as donna brazille said on this week, the edwards' campaign has stalled. there have been more headlines about his wife elizabeth over the past 30 days than him. last night on hardball, there was a long report on elizabeth edwards by d. shuster. john was merely a blip.

it's time to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee, democrats! (see how you use the term "proverbial," kyra phillips?) hillary is electable. she can run as the agent of change WITH the best record of experience. she can beat the GOP.

for fuck's sake..... how many more polls do you need?

and for the love of vishnu...stop giving me the bullshit about "i really like hillary but i don't think she can win." love her. vote for her. she will win.

i say unite, brothers (and sisters)! unite! hillary 2008.

e.

H-Town Welcomes Hillary

my girl hillary was in town this past weekend and spoke to a crowd of nearly 1,100 supporters at the cwa union hall. it was my first experience hearing a presidential candidate speak in person and she didn't disappoint.

i'm so excited about the prospect of hill being my president that i had to fight back tears several times saturday morning. just seeing her - in her now famous coral-colored jacket - makes me hope that someday i can say i witnessed a small part of history.

ready for change. ready to lead.

this is the campaign slogan you see at a hillary event. it's brilliant in its simplicity and how well it sums up why she is the best candidate for president.

ready for change: read any coverage concerning the 2008 presidential election and everyone says this is a "change" election. everyone is ready to put the past 6 1/2 years behind them. so, it's easy to make this a centerpiece of any campaign. "i promise change." obama is running as a "change" candidate. hell, romney is running as a change candidate (but i think he sees it more as he'll keep changing his views until you like what he says). it is a simple component of anyone's campaign slogan and stump speech and even hillary has adopted it. but it's the second part of this slogan that puts hillary ahead of the rest.

ready to lead: i truly believe that hillary could easily step into the white house tomorrow and lead the country. she is intelligent, passionate, compassionate and has the experience to make her the best candidate. it is this claim that she is "ready to lead" that makes her the best qualified person to step in as the 44th president. obama cannot claim "ready to lead" as readily and hill's camp knows this. of course they would use it. and it is this combination of a desire for change and the experience to lead that makes the campaign slogan so powerful.

48 stars

at the event on saturday, hillary talked about the pentagon scuffle and the cronyism of the bush administration. she talked about the need for health care and a better education system. she talked about everything she has been talking about and i loved to hear it all. i could have listened to her for hours. but it was another story she told that really hit home with me and the audience.....

hillary concluded the event with a story madeleine albright used to tell her. back in 1995, albright had been asked to represent the united states at the 50th anniversary of the end of world war II in europe. with her family's past in europe and their history of having to escape the nazis, albright was honored to attend. she spent much of her time behind what was previously called "the iron curtain." in eastern europe she was amazed to see so many american flags waving - all of which has 48 stars. she asked people about the flags and they all told her when the americans came to liberate europe in 1945 - they handed out flags to villagers. remember, in 1945 alaska and hawaii were not yet states (thus, 48 stars). then she wondered how they all still had these flags and she was told that they were passed down from generation to generation, like family heirlooms. "but why?" albright kept asking. "because we love america," they would respond. "we love what america stands for."

imagine these villagers - risking possible retribution in the old soviet block for having an american flag.... and passing this flag down through generations of family members. all because - they love america.

we no longer have this same standing in the world. 6 1/2 years of bush and cheney and rove have destroyed the world's view of america and americans.

now......i've never been a rah, rah, rah, U!-S!-A! kinda guy. but wouldn't it be nice to be respected in the world again? considered a partner and an ally as opposed to how the world views us under bush? once again looked at in a positive light because of our views and compassion for all countries?

hillary promises to restore our standing in the world. she has worked with so many world leaders she already has relationships built up across the globe. in other words....

hillary is ready for change. she is ready to lead.

e.

Notes From All Over

this is why i have to be better about writing on my blog. i take a few days off and i have mucho to talk about. let the rambling begin:

edwards falls flat
so i watched the AFL-CIO debate this evening (as you knew i would) and i was amazed at how disappointing a performance edwards turned in. this was to be his crowd. he's been positioning himself as the union candidate - but from the get-go he just came across as awkward and phony. i think he tried too hard to attack hillary and the crowd wasn't responding. he came across as disingenuous and more interested in making hill look bad than actually addressing the concerns of the audience.

biden and kuninich did not help matters. kucinich clearly stole edwards thunder with the union crowd. edwards was on board - but dennis said exactly what they wanted to hear. bye-bye NAFTA, WTO and "no child left behind." and when edwards started listing his picket-friendly credentials ("i've walked in 200 picket lines."), biden cut him down basically saying: it's great that you've stood on 20, 30 picket lines over the past two years - since you've started running for president - but where were you those six years you worked in the legislature? ouch.

"i was on a picket line on saturday"
the chicago sun-times is reporting that, yes, edwards was on a picket line on saturday...for about ten minutes. he also used that time to film part of campaign ad, even turning to the camera and saying, "i'm john edwards and i approve this message." ouch.

future cabinet posts
so edwards tried hard to control the dialogue and to strike at hillary, but hillary has two new "surrogates" (as chuck todd put it) and this is something i noticed, as well. suddenly dodd and biden are fighting for hillary. could it be they know she'll be the next president? is joe trying to firm up is candidacy for secretary of state under a clinton administration?

"i'm your girl"
which brings us to my hill. what another masterful performance. yes, she was booed once for her statement about presidents thinking big but not voicing all their thoughts (not a smart comment with the uber-secretive bush administration causing that bad taste in our mouths) - but she otherwise commanded the debate. she stayed above the fray, as lynn sweet put it. and her answer after being attacked by both obama and edwards over and over again early in the debate was a great moment. again, paraphrasing: "you know, i've noticed a lot of the candidates using my name over the past several days. but i'm here to be president, not attack other democrats. i want us to win. and i've been fighting the right-wing machine for the past fifteen years and i've come out stronger. so if you're looking for someone that can win against them... i'm your girl." my inner-feminist cringed at the word "girl" but, hey, woman connected, she humanized herself and, most importantly, she reminded everyone that she is strong and will stand up to the right. brilliant.

most everyone i heard afterwards said hillary won or obama won. i would say obama won on the debate over pakistan (i strong moment for him) but hillary won overall. mostly because all she had to do is not lose.

new poll numbers!
hillary is now ahead 22 points over obama in the latest usa today/gallop poll. hill stands at 48% (almost HALF of the democratic field) with barack trailing at 26 and edwards at 14. it would appear that her continued ascension would be thanks to her mastery of foreign relation issues, including terrorism. the "spat" between hill and barack has seemed to have bumped hillary and lessened obama. newsweek has hillary, obama and edwards at 44%, 23% and 14% respectively (identical to the nbc/wsj poll).

interesting numbers from the washington post/abc poll of likely iowa voters show that over half the voters want change and 39% want strength and experience in their next president. how does that break down?

best change candidate: obama 37%, edwards 31% and clinton 15%. hmmm.....
best strength candidate: clinton 38%, edwards 21% and obama 14%. yea!

to break it down even further: 50% of poll respondents think hillary has the best experience. only 7% think obama is the best experienced, which must be a worrisome number for axelrod and the obama camp. hillary also leads with 36% of the vote as being viewed as the strongest leader.

the same poll, yes, put obama ahead as the most trustworthy and most likeable candidate - with edwards second and hillary trailing in third. but as i heard one pundit say, "we've had 8 years of the guy you want to have a beer with. people now want competence." and national polls still put terrorism and homeland security as the top priority facing america. hillary has positioned herself as the best candidate to answer this call.

and i think it continues to show hillary's electability on the rise. and i think america will continue to warm to her (her likeability numbers are on the rise). which brings us to our....

meet the press quote of the week
compliments of mr. carl bernstein: "so much of (hillary's) character has been defined by acolytes and enemies instead of the best obtainable version of the truth... finally, maybe we're gonna get that." let's hope so...... you go, girl.

what the fuck?!?!
has anyone read about the massive fuck-up the dems have pulled off? they approved bush's previous wire-tapping and have actually increased his authority to listen in on our conversations?!?! and to top it all off....fucking gonzales gets to oversee all of this?!?!

nancy... harry... don't make me regret fighting for you guys to take over in 2004. what in the name of paul wellstone are you doing?!?!

i will back cindy sheehan in california, nancy. don't tempt me!

dipshit of the week
kyra phillips of cnn was reporting on the heartbreaking minneapolis bridge collapse when she mentioned that there had been signs of the weakened state of the bridge for years. then she said, and i quote: "but nobody crossed that proverbial bridge until it was too late."

ummm..... does she not see that it was not a proverbial bridge but an actual bridge? and that people died? what an inconsiderate schmuck.

oh - and wait for it: the bridge's reported problems date back to the 90's. i don't know how, but give the republicans time. somehow - they'll blame this on president bill clinton too. you mark my words.

e.

i heart polls

call me crazy.... call it an addiction. but poll numbers make me moist. i love 'em, i can't get enough of 'em... if they mixed well with vodka - well, we'd have some problems.

some interesting new numbers came out today.

the first numbers i found this morning were from mr. allen on politico.com. it paints a dimmer primary picture for my woman, hillary. quoting from mr. allen (that was very keith olbermann):

Polls in the Democratic presidential race have been pretty static, but there may have been some real movement. American Research Group has Sen. Barack Obama moving into a tie with Sen. Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and “surging” in South Carolina (up 12 since June), per Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics.

let's break this down into specifics of the bevan numbers:

New Hampshire - Democrats
Obama 31 (+6 vs. last poll in June)
Clinton 31 (-3)
Edwards 14 (+3)

South Carolina - Democrats
Obama 33 (+12 vs. last poll in June)
Clinton 29 (-8)
Edwards 18 (-4)

that is a mighty impressive bump for senator obama.

side note: much like bill, i don't want to get into the middle of the little spat between hill and barack last week (yes, yes - i wrote about the debate answer - but i moved on). i think hillary was taken aback by how well obama fought back in the second half of last week. but as that political nut craig crawford said earlier today, hillary needs to stop responding to such minor slaps and start acting like the front runner again. which brings me to the exciting numbers of the day.

nbc has released the results of their latest wall street journal/nbc news poll. great news for hillary who has surged (there's that word again) to a 21-point lead over obama: 43% to 22%. this is an increase on her 14-point lead back in june over obama (39% to 25%).

nationally, a heads-up match between clinton and guiliani has hillary winning 47% to 41% (which is better than the plus or minus 3 points). obama would also beat guiliani by a slightly smaller margin.

most impressive: a whopping 74% of poll respondents said that at least 24 straight years of bushes and clintons in the white house won’t be much of a consideration when they vote.

so....what does all this mean? well, it depends. will the democratic nomination be settled locally - in the primaries? will obama's lead in these states carry him to the podium in denver? and lest we forget that edwards is still leading in all iowa polls. what does a win there mean for john? or will a strong second-place showing for one of the other nominees carry them to win other states?

but what if the democratic primary voters are once again looking for electability (ala kerry in 2004)? would national polls swing the voters in individual states? pundits seem to agree that electability is more important for the GOP this year - which explains why a cross-dressing, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control republican may win the nomination. which brings me to my favorite 'meet the press' quote of the week. compliments of chuck todd:

if it's romney verses rudy in south carolina, will the evangelicals hold their nose and vote for the mormon or hold their nose and vote for the pro-choice guy?

well.... there are many, many more months (and polls) ahead to clear all this up. in the meantime - i'm having a blast!


and now for something completely different:
peter schrager (special to fox sports) has my beloved houston texans currently #28 in the nfl power rankings...with good buzz on matt schaub who replaces my husband, david carr. well, at least that still leaves minnesota, atlanta (suck it, vick!), oakland and cleveland ranked lower.

oy... could be another long football season in houston.

e.