Countdown to the Election: 6 Days

well, not long ago barack obama debuted his 30-minute campaign ad on most of the major networks. (actually - all major networks except ABC, which if fine because i was able to DVR my pushing daisies.)

i was worried about the "infomercial" but i thought it was very powerful. moving and informative... just beautifully produced.... well done, sir.

but let's look at numbers... six days out.

first, the general numbers: the national polls have tightened slightly with obama up 6 points over mccain...49.9% to 43.9%. however....realclearpolitics.com now has the electoral map favoring obama even more:

w/ toss-ups: obama 311, mccain 142 (obama +169)
no toss-ups: obama 375, mccain 163 (obama +212)

now....there aren't many toss-up states left. obama's lead in colorado has increased to double-digits and is now in the obama column. new hampshire is solidly obama.

but which states are still toss-ups? well....let's focus tonight on indiana (and at this point i give a shout-out to my colts-lovin' friend rebecca).

indiana is a neighboring state of illinois which everyone thought would go to obama throughout the primaries... it's also been a solidly red state since the 80's.

but wait...

realclearpolitics has their latest average of indiana polls thus:

obama: 47.4%
mccain: 46%

that's a net positive of just 1.4% for obama. however...just a week ago, the average on 10/21, had mccain up 48.8% to 45%.

so what's changed...? and is 1.4% enough to guarantee a blue indiana?

i think indiana truly remains a toss-up state... perhaps the last toss-up in the midwest where all the other states are turning a darker shade of blue.

it's a red state, true, but the midwest is being hit hard by the economy which all polls show favors obama.

so let's look inside the numbers. the most recent poll out by reuters has mccain up +10. but the big 10 battleground poll has obama up +10. and research 2000 has obama up by just 1 point.

so we have a net positive of 1.4% for obama....

indiana has 11 electoral votes... 11 votes will not do much to help mccain win the election in 6 days.

so....does indiana matter? it may not... obama can win without the state. mccain can still lose with it.

but it would be nice to see obama sweep the midwest and turn another red state blue.

i'm gonna make a call and say indiana goes blue on november 4th.

and we'll know if i'm right in just 6 days....

stay tuned for another state tomorrow. and if you have early voting....get out there and vote!

obama/biden 08!

e.