well, holy shit... did you ever think the day would come...? we are just one day away from choosing the next president of the united states.yes, tomorrow is election day 2008.
we're only one day away. one day! we were SO close... but there it was. when i woke up this morning.......
the GOP is running a jeremiah wright ad in pennsylvania. and, actually, i've seen another GOP ad featuring jeremiah wright at least twice tonight on msnbc... and i think nbc.
so.....we almost made it. i mean, it was getting pretty ugly, sure. but we had avoided wright.
but the republican party never fails to sink lower and lower. they are, truly, despicable.
anyway...shame on you... and on to the polls.
realclearpolitics.com currently has an estimated 278 electoral votes for obama and 132 electoral votes for mccain. that's a net positive of 146 electoral votes for obama with 128 toss-up votes remaining.
without toss-ups...RCP has the electoral map you see above. they predict 338 electoral votes for obama and 200 for mccain. that's a lead of 138 electoral votes for obama and that's a decisive victory.
when we look at the RCP average of recent polls....the numbers break down as follows:
obama 51.6%
mccain 44.3%
as you can see...the polls have widened again and obama is up 7.3 percentage points over mccain heading into election day. in fact, out of the 14 polls they've gathered over the past couple of days...obama stands over 50% in all but one.
now...i actually think this map is a bit safe. in this final evening before the election, i've decided not to play it safe. below is my prediction for the outcome of tomorrow's election.
okay, i admit this may be overly optimistic...but this is my prediction. it's not the 390 electoral votes predicted by the dailykos....but it's ambitious.
my numbers come out with 375 electoral votes for the obama/biden ticket and 163 electoral votes for mccain/palin.
i've moved missouri, indiana and north carolina into obama's column.
let me start by saying i know a lot of people have been saying the polls are tightening... and in some states they are...although they're not nationally.
of course, as i've been hammering home....national numbers don't mean much. it comes down to the states.
but most polls are made up of "likely voters." the scenario for "likely voters" is derived from looking at who voted in the two prior elections. i don't think those scenarios accurately depict who will be voting this year.
they don't take into account a larger african-american turn-out. or the likely turn-out of a large number of younger voters. i should also point out, speaking of younger voters, polls only contact individuals with landlines. most college students who are crazy/enthusiastic for obama will not have a landline.
this is an HUGE population which i think will FINALLY show up at the polls and they're largely being ignored in the polling data.
i also think the overwhelming disgust the democratic party feels after suffering through the past 8 years will draw an amazing (and record-breaking) turn-out at the polls.
so...let's look at these three states quickly:
RCP currently has mccain up a mere 0.5% over obama in missouri (48% mccain, 47.5% obama). consistently, however, obama has tracked higher than mccain. and in two recent polls, fox news/rasmussen and surveyUSA, mccain and obama are tied. reuters/zogby actually has obama up by 1 point.
i just think turn-out will nudge obama over the top in this bell-weather state.
north carolina also has mccain up by a mere 0.6% over obama. again...this is another state where obama has been tracking high up until just a day or two ago.
taking into account that polls almost always tighten towards the end....i just trust the prior trend of obama leading. in fact, he was leading up until yesterday.
i think it might just be an odd hiccup in the polls. i think turn-out again will be the key. it will be close...but i think democrats will be disgusted not just by eight years of bush/cheney but also the ads being run by elizabeth dole. this will help increase the democratic turn-out and push him ahead. but by very little.
and finally...indiana. i've discussed this state before (and another shout-out here to rebecca. congrats on the colts' win over the pats last night!) and i stand by my prediction that obama will win.
this is another state where obama has been tracking up.... now the polls currently have mccain up 1.4% (47.6% mccain, 46.2% obama) with PPP(D) showing obama up +1 and reuters/zogby showing mccain up +5. however, two recent polls (ARG and downs center/surveyUSA) have the race tied.
i just think looking at national polls which show a sharp increase in the numbers for obama and the general tracking of obama leading in most polls until just the past couple of days....
not to mention all the early voting in 31 states which probably doesn't reflect the current polls....
i'm just thinking tomorrow night is a good night for obama.
and i use the term "good" relatively. afterall...tomorrow night, no matter the outcome, will be a somber evening for senator obama who lost his grandmother earlier today.
this is the woman who helped raise obama and it must be incredibly sad for everyone that she will not be around to see her grandson, very possibly, make history.
tomorrow is a huge day. and i know there's been a lot of hype but this is a truly historic election.... and probably the most important election in our lifetime.
so VOTE!
and hopefully....you'll vote for:
obama/biden 08!
e.
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