Countdown to the Election: Days 4 & 3

my apologies, fellow politicos. yesterday was halloween and i was simply too busy thinking about chocolate and watching psycho dwarfs in red raincoats tormenting donald sutherland to post.

so today we'll tackle two states.... but let me tell you why. the last two days i have set my browser to realclearpolitics.com and noticed something odd in the electoral map.

mccain's numbers have been shrinking....

first RCP took georgia off the map. back in the toss-up column. then i looked this morning... and i had heard grumblings about this possibility. but there it was. arizona was no longer red. no longer even slightly red...

mccain's home state of arizona is back in the toss-up column.

that puts the current RCP estimate of electoral votes as obama with 311 and mccain at 132...with 95 toss-up votes. that's a net positive of 179 electoral votes for obama.

no toss-ups? 353 for obama and 185 for mccain. that's a net positive of 168 electoral votes for obama....

the national polls....again - just a reminder that they don't mean much - it's the states....

obama 50.2%
mcccain 43.6%.

again...+6.6 points for obama. that's pretty much standing steady....

oh - and just so we cover the topic. i know several people are still worried about a possible "bradley effect." and looking back over history, i understand why...

most pundits believe that an african american candidate needs to have a net positive of at least 5 points in the poll to be safe from any hidden racism.

but one of my favorite columnists...gail collins of the times...points out something beautiful in her column today. while she doesn't dismiss the fact that some people may be afraid to tell a perfect stranger over the phone they won't vote for a black candidate... would those same people go so far as to say they think obama is better for the economy, taxes, health care, etc...?

as gail says: that "seem[s] like a lot of effort to impress a stranger on the other end of a telephone line."

so...i tentatively think we can put the bradley effect to bed. at least... i hope.

anyway - back to the states.

let's begin with georgia...where i have no friends to which i should "shout out."

georgia currently stands obama 46% and mccain 49%. it's a net positive of 3 points for mccain. that's a single digit lead for a fucking republican in fucking georgia.

so...the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up +5 (52% to 47%) and the latest research2000 poll has mccain up a mere 3 points (47% to 44%).

this is a state that should go red and should hold a stronger lead for mccain. but i think african american turnout could make this an interesting race.

do i think obama could steal georgia's 15 electoral votes? i'm doubtful.... but it makes for an interesting campaign.

so arizona.... actually, another state with no connections for me.

arizona...mccain's home state....is down to a single digit lead. RCP has mccain up by a mere 3.5 points in their average of polls. mccain 49.3% to obama 45.8%.

the latest rasmussen poll has mccain up by 5 points (51% to 46%) and the research2000 poll has mccain up... are you ready for this...? by just 1 point. mccain 48%, obama 47%.

this. is. fascinating....

i really can't imagine mccain loses arizona and its 10 electoral votes. i mean... he's been a senator from there for such a long time.

but could a large hispanic vote (yes, hispanic vote) tip things for obama?

this could all really come down to turn-out. if obama...who has an amazing ground operation in almost every state...can get his supporters out in a larger number than mccain... he could just upset some states.

(was that just a john madden/painfully obvious statement...? "what needs to happen is...the green jerseys need to move the ball down the field and the white jerseys need to stop them. boom!")

anyway... i'm predicting both of these states to go red come tuesday... but i love that obama is forcing mccain to spend money in so many states that should be solidly red.

this election...i'm telling you...from the primaries all the way through tuesday... it's simply one of the most fascinating, wild, unpredictable races in recent history.

i hope you're paying attention. this one is going down in the history books.

VOTE!

obama/biden 08!

e.