Countdown to the Election: 7 Days

it's hard to believe that the campaign of the past TWO YEARS is quickly coming to an end.

first it appeared hillary clinton looked inevitable. then obama won iowa and he was inevitable. then hillary came back and won new hampshire and it was anybody's game until obama finally wrapped up the nomination after a very long primary fight.

mccain was dead two summers ago before he rose up from the pits of hell to snag the GOP nomination.

would hillary be obama's running mate....?

who the fuck is this sarah palin....?

as each question was answered, two or three more would appear...

but here we are. just one week away from knowing who the next president of the united states will be. and things seem to be coming into focus.

the brilliant charlie cook (who is one of the best political minds out there) probably put it best this weekend when he wrote:

For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.

the numbers we've seen over the past couple of months is just the type of surge obama can get behind. and i'd like to spend the next week looking closely at the numbers, possibly focusing on a specific state that remains "in play" each day.

but for today... i'd like to focus on just the big numbers. drawing information consistently from realclearpolitics.com, the race currently stands thus:

obama 50.6%
mccain 43.6%

that's a 7% lead for obama. but as we've all learned from 2000...the popular vote means shit when choosing the next POTUS.

so how does the electoral map look...?

realclearpolitics currently has a definitive 306 electoral votes for obama and 157 for mccain. that's a net positive of 149 electoral votes for obama. but remember: you only need 270 electoral votes to become president.

so does that mean obama wins....? look back at cook's quote.... the answer almost has to be yes, right? i mean...those are numbers WITH toss-up states. let's take out the toss-up states and you see why cook says we're looking at an impressive trajectory.

without toss-up states, obama has 375 electoral votes to mccain's 163... that's a net positive of 212 electoral votes!

that's the upper deck, my friends (to steal a phrase from mccain).

so does obama win? can anything snatch this democratic slam dunk (to mix metaphors) from the jaws of victory? should we still fear a bradley effect?

in the coming days.... we'll focus on other issues playing into the november 4th election and focus in on a few key states.

but, my fellow dems....it's lookin' good.

obama/biden 08!

e.