3 days...

only three days to go....

hard to believe it's almost here - but the iowa caucuses are this thursday. i think i'll take the next three days to update the latest polls and see how things are shaping up.

but first...let's discuss the process. i understand the weather is supposed to be nice thursday night. not too cold (the 30's) and sunny. a big turn out will help obama and clinton. a small turnout will help edwards...who lays claim to the caucus faithful.

obama could be hurt because his largest supporter pot comes in the form of younger voters... they're home for the holidays.

the republicans vote much like a staw poll. anonymous ballots that are counted to find a winner. pretty straight forward.

the dems....they've got it tough. everyone is in a room and you go to separate sides or corners to show your support of each candidate. nothing anonymous about this. you have to get up in front of everyone and stand by your nominee. that could be daunting.

there's a great story about the daughter of a very powerful man in one town that went to stand with the howard dean group in 2004 and the father said, "you take one more step, young lady, and you're grounded for a month." she turned around and stood with him and the other john kerry folk.

nominees must also garner at least 15% of the crowd for their candidate. if someone does not get 15% - those people negotiate with the other groups and can move towards their second choice.

edwards scores the most points as people's second choice.

the polls
realclearpolitics.com currently has hillary ahead in iowa by an average of 2 points. she's ahead 4 in the reuters/zogby poll and 7 in the latest american research poll.

edwards leads by 1 in mason-dixon and obama leads by 1 in strategic vision. the latest msnbc poll has edwards first with clinton in second and obama in third.

i heard some mumbling yesterday that obama is still expected to win iowa. i'm prepared to call edwards the winner today... but that could change before thursday.

if nothing else...the obama momentum has appeared to slow.

on the republican side...realclearpolitics.com currently has flip-flop mitt in the lead by a mere 0.4 points over hillbilly huckabee. reuters/zogby has huck up by 2 but american research has romney up by 9.

i'm still predicting huckabee to take iowa.... although - mitt may have the troops on the ground to sway turnout.

we'll see...

looks to be an exciting week. love these close races. i just hope hillary can come out on top.

see ya tomorrow.

e.