in the same season when nobody teams can make it into the bcs top ten (and then go on to lose their only important games) - why shouldn't a nobody make it into the big leagues of politics?mike huckabee leads in iowa.
yes...you read that statement correctly. for a couple of months now i have quietly been telling my friends, "don't count out huckabee." in fact - that was to be a title for one of my blog entries back in the fall.
conventional wisdom, however, along with a great deal of caution - kept telling me the race would be between romney and rudy.
not so.... i say it again: don't count out huckabee.
so who is huckabee? appalachian state? does that make romney michigan? doubt he would like that... or is huckabee southern florida? making it into the top five only to fade out once he comes across a real competitor?
more likey....i see huckabee as hawaii. the real crowd doesn't want to welcome him...but he's proven himself and now he has his chance.... iowa is the sugar bowl, my friends... it's huck's chance to prove himself...
and before this metaphor gets away from me... let's go to the numbers.
new polls!
the iowa republicans
the latest des moines register poll - the poll i've been looooooong waiting for - is finally out. huckabee is the big surprise.
iowa hearts huckabee and he leads with 29% of the vote. that's an increase of 17% from october. flip-flop romney has fallen from 29% to 24% and giuliani remains in third with 13%.
what's most interesting about huck's surge is that he has only spent $300,000 in iowa. romney has spent over $7 million.
but when you watch the debates... huck always has the best one-liners. and he doesn't come across like a politician. he comes across like the "aw shucks" pastor he is...
careful boys... luckily - he has that bad tax past.
iowa democrats - or - a new leader emerges
the new des moines register poll of likely democratic caucus goers has barack obama in the lead. yes... even if you go to realclearpolitics.com - obama has taken the lead in iowa when all polls are averaged (granted, only .2% ahead, but still).
barack is up to 28% from 22% in october. hillary remains a strong second with 25% (down from 29% in october) and stalled-out edwards remains, well, stalled at 23%.
the most frightening thing about this poll is some of the internal numbers. most notably - obama has taken a lead with iowa women. he now leads hill 31% to 26% with women. in october, hillary was up 34% to obama's 21%.
a big part of this must be her poor performance in philly. and several pundits i heard talking over the weekend - most notably gene robinson of the post - believes her poor performance has given people permission to start looking at other candidates. and let's face it... barack is a great candidate.
i just feel he's not as great as my girl....
but what i believe more - and something else i've said to friends - is what michelle norris of npr said on press this weekend...
which brings us to (yes!) our...
meet the press quote of the week
from the above mentioned ms. norris, on the subject of hillary's "inevitability."
it's a word a lot of people here (in iowa) do not like... the sense that hillary clinton was the inevitable candidate did not go down easy with a lot of voters that i spoke with. they don't want to be told that their votes don't count. they want to know...that they play an important role in this process.
it's like the oscars, people. whenever a movie seems a lock for the big prize... there's always a backlash.
and trust me... i know my oscars.
i knew all this talk about hillary being the inevitable candidate would start a backlash... and here it is... the media wouldn't shut the fuck up about it and now she's suffering in the polls.
even hillary's lead in new hampshire has dropped a bit. and she's dropped 7 points in south carolina.
am i worried?
no... not worried. concerned, yes. a little nervous, perhaps. but hillary will be fine.
the most important thing is she can't panic. can't seem desperate. which means she may want to be careful with the attacks in iowa. obama has already put up a website titled "hillary attacks."
so to come full circle...
it's like the bcs. nobody is safe this year... nobody is guaranteed a perfect season. except hawaii, apparently... which if my metaphor stands is huckabee.... which means he has a perfect season. but then again... he can always be beaten by georgia. but i guess that begs the question? who is georgia? romney? thompson?
and if hillary finishes second in iowa... good money says she can still go on to win in new hampshire and win big on tsunami tuesday. unless she suffers the other curse of the bcs this season.... and #2 fucks it all up and falls deep in the standings.
shit... i think i've scared myself with my football analogies.
i know i've definitely confused some of my gay friends....
hillary 08?
e.
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