Well, Shit....

what i was afraid would happen...happened. huckabee and obama had clear, decisive victories in iowa last night.

the final results had obama garnering 37.54% of the iowa caucus vote... 20% of his supporters were independents - a number that must scare the shit out of republicans (especially maccain in new hampshire...just four days away).

edwards and clinton finished second and third... edwards barely edging out hillary with 29.71% to 29.43%.

edwards is done.

hillary is wounded... and i have to be honest - i'm afraid she's done, as well.

i'm not ready to drive the final nail into her coffin... she is still ahead by double digits in national polls and ahead handily in new hampshire as recently as yesterday.

but i watched obama's victory speech last night... it was electric. it was the type of speech that made me say "this man will one day be president" after he spoke at the 2004 democratic convention.

the energy that the room emanated FROM THE FUCKING TELEVISION.... his passion. his message. this man has become a movement.

it's hard to stop a movement. and he is impressive.

obama would easily be my top choice... if i haven't had such a long love affair with hillary and if i didn't really desire a woman in the white house.

so an obama presidency does not make me unhappy. i will easily support obama if he is the nominee.

but i retain hope (there's that word) for hillary.

my friend sally is 50. she is afraid that if hillary doesn't win the presidency she may never see another viable female presidential candidate in her lifetime. that's sad... but a possibility.

but, really, who else is out there.....? pelosi? mccaskell?

chris matthews...whom i learn to loathe a bit more every day...made an interesting point. the white men of america gave the black men of america the ability to vote in 1870. it would take another 50 YEARS before the men-folk decided to give the women-folk that same right.

so clearly the white men that run this country are more comfortable to have another MAN...even if his pigmentation is a bit darker...than a woman run this country.

it's a sad fact.

at least i can be happy in the man that may be chosen to run it. but goddamn...i still really hope it's a woman.

hillary 08.

e.

Tonight... Tonight...

well, fuck me... i'm having a really shitty, very busy day.

but i'm finding the time to list my official predictions for the caucuses tonight.

i really think everything is too close to call and if i'm wrong - well, i think a lot of people will be wrong.

but i make predictions for the oscars... i can make predictions for iowa.

just as final reference: realclearpolitics.com currently has obama winning over clinton by 1.6 points and huckabee beating romney by 3 points.

a lot of final polls have shown strong bumps for obama and huckleberry.

official predictions
i think ole "hope is on the way" edwards will win iowa. he has the experienced caucus goers and i just think his organization on the ground will get out his vote. he's also a strong second choice for those less-than-15% supporters of other candidates.

hillary will be second with obama in third.

this will all be very close...no real clear winner. all the dems will live to fight another day.

i believe hillbilly huckabee will top flip-flop mitt and take iowa... his margin of victory may be a bit larger than any democratic victory.

maccain will come in third... rudy will finish abysmally low.

these are my official predictions based on numbers. in all honesty - obama will probably win but i just can't bring myself to admit it... if he does - it will be a slight margin.

gut predictions
these are my "for fun" predictions. just some feelings i have in my gut and i could see the caucuses finishing like this:

hillary wins the democratic contest. her organization gets out the vote and older women come out in force to cast a historic vote. older voters are far more reliable than younger voters. obama is counting too much on the youth vote. and as joe scarborough says (fuck me, i'm quoting joe) - you're a fool to count on the youth vote. obama will finish second and edwards third.... all in all...a CLOSE contest.

romney's money and organization will sweep him into a victory over huckabee...but only by a slight margin. this will help romney and i still see him as the eventual nominee for president.

romney v. hillary.

and that...as they say....is that.

tomorrow is a new day.

e.

Just FYI...

i'm already hedging on my predictions. if you asked me right now.... i have a really good feeling that hillary will pull out a victory in iowa and huckabee will win on the republican side.

yeah... that's what i'm thinking right now.

but i'm pretty sure i'll change my mind again before the doors are shut at the caucuses tomorrow evening.

e.

1 Day...

the sun'll come out....tomorrow!

actually...sun would help with turnout... that would help obama. so...with just hours to go - what will tomorrow bring?

the forecast for tomorrow calls for partly sunny skies and a high around 30.

not bad....

realclearpolitics.com currently has obama in the lead by 0.4 points over clinton and huckabee topping romney by 0.7 points.

everything is so close... the leader seems to change every day.

i'm so conflicted.

i'm hesitant to pick any winner at this point but i feel i must....

predictions
(with one last chance to change before 5pm (CST) tomorrow)

fuck...i think i'm putting obama down to take the democratic victory tomorrow. but it will be close....CLOSE...with hillary coming in second.

i see hillary as second. period. edwards may win - but i just don't see hill taking it. but if it's close....she will still take the nod.

if obama wins in a blow-out.... well, then i worry.

the republicans...i'm now prepared to predict romney. i think he has the troops on the ground to get out his supporters.

plus - hillbilly huckabee has just said one idiotic statement after another over the past three days. what a fucking moron!

people are starting to notice.

obama and romney.

fuck me...did i just echo chris matthews?

kill me now.

e.

2 Days...

hola... happy new year!

last night hillary clinton's campaign announced they raised over $100 million in 2007...a first. that would mean she raised at least $20 million in the final quarter of last year.

you go, girl.

polls - democrats
realclearpolitics.com has lessened hillary's margin in iowa to 1.6 points. this is in large part due to the latest (and last) des moines register poll that has obama ahead by 7 points (outside the margin of error).

a lot of pundits, however, have problems with this new poll. they've changed the demographic make-up to the poll from all previous polls.... the biggest change - at least 50% of the poll respondents would be first time caucus goers. the number is never more than 25-35%. there's also a much larger number of independents and even republicans factored into the poll.

everyone believes the race is much closer than this poll would suggest... they also point to obama suddenly very strongly coming out negatively against both hillary and edwards. if he was so far ahead...he wouldn't need to attack.

this one will be close....

my father has an interesting prediction - one i like. 1st - edwards. 2nd - hillary. 3rd - biden. and 4th - obama. i'm going edwards - hillary - obama...but we'll see.

polls - republicans
i believe yesterday romney was up by 0.4 points on realclearpolitics.com, well today... huckabee is up by 0.4 points.

i finally had a chance to read some articles on huckabee's negative romney ad he decided not to air... but thought he'd show the ad to the press corps and then pat himself on the back when he said he wouldn't run it and "look how wonderful i am."

the press corps openly laughed at him.

beautiful...

still picking the hillbilly to take iowa.... but if romney can muster the troops - he'll take it.

2 days to go...

e.

3 days...

only three days to go....

hard to believe it's almost here - but the iowa caucuses are this thursday. i think i'll take the next three days to update the latest polls and see how things are shaping up.

but first...let's discuss the process. i understand the weather is supposed to be nice thursday night. not too cold (the 30's) and sunny. a big turn out will help obama and clinton. a small turnout will help edwards...who lays claim to the caucus faithful.

obama could be hurt because his largest supporter pot comes in the form of younger voters... they're home for the holidays.

the republicans vote much like a staw poll. anonymous ballots that are counted to find a winner. pretty straight forward.

the dems....they've got it tough. everyone is in a room and you go to separate sides or corners to show your support of each candidate. nothing anonymous about this. you have to get up in front of everyone and stand by your nominee. that could be daunting.

there's a great story about the daughter of a very powerful man in one town that went to stand with the howard dean group in 2004 and the father said, "you take one more step, young lady, and you're grounded for a month." she turned around and stood with him and the other john kerry folk.

nominees must also garner at least 15% of the crowd for their candidate. if someone does not get 15% - those people negotiate with the other groups and can move towards their second choice.

edwards scores the most points as people's second choice.

the polls
realclearpolitics.com currently has hillary ahead in iowa by an average of 2 points. she's ahead 4 in the reuters/zogby poll and 7 in the latest american research poll.

edwards leads by 1 in mason-dixon and obama leads by 1 in strategic vision. the latest msnbc poll has edwards first with clinton in second and obama in third.

i heard some mumbling yesterday that obama is still expected to win iowa. i'm prepared to call edwards the winner today... but that could change before thursday.

if nothing else...the obama momentum has appeared to slow.

on the republican side...realclearpolitics.com currently has flip-flop mitt in the lead by a mere 0.4 points over hillbilly huckabee. reuters/zogby has huck up by 2 but american research has romney up by 9.

i'm still predicting huckabee to take iowa.... although - mitt may have the troops on the ground to sway turnout.

we'll see...

looks to be an exciting week. love these close races. i just hope hillary can come out on top.

see ya tomorrow.

e.