It's Howdy Doody Time!

okay.... obama just gave a very inspirational and beautiful speech to a joint session of congress.

and now....the republican response is on.

as governor bobby jindal walked out, keith olbermann's mic was not fully down and you could hear him mutter, "oh, god..."

jindal came walking out like fuckin' howdy doody on puppet strings.

how the fuck is an indian american gonna come across like some "gee, golly shucks" hillbilly?

seriously? they want this guy running for president in 2012?

bring. it. on.

e.

Happy Oscars!

happy oscars, everyone!

sorry the video is a bit pixilated and the sound is a touch off… but this is the song that goes through my head all the time around the academy awards (and it’s liza!).

three other quick predictions for you, and i would give all three of this a will win/should win declaration:

best animated feature: WALL-E
best adapted screenplay: slumdog millionaire, simon beaufoy
best original screenplay: milk, dustin lance black

and i’m still feeling mickey rourke for the win.... just really wish it was sean penn.

oh well....

oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

the curious case of benjamin button
frost/nixon
milk
the reader
slumdog millionaire

once again for the benefit of my anonymous poster... it should be said that the dark knight is a far superior film to at least two of these nominees, if not more.

i am not willing to say that milk or frost/nixon do not belong on this list. they are easily in my top five.

milk for it's heartbreaking and inspirational storytelling of a movement that is still alive today but is beholden to a great man. van sant and penn make a moving biopic here that is just outside my top spot.

frost/nixon for it's compelling cat and mouse intellectual mindfuck between a fallen president and a man desperate to prove himself. in fact, aren't they both attempting redemption here? the tension builds beautifully until everything unwraps itself in the climatic interview.

i understand the technical and visual wonders that garnered benjamin button a nomination. but it does not belong in the top five.

the reader most certainly does not belong in the top five.

i would replace either of these with the dark knight, revolutionary road or WALL-E.

but one film i most definitely would not replace is slumdog millionaire. this is one of the most thrilling films i've seen in such a long time. it's not thrilling in the way an action film is thrilling...but it will leave you breathless. and from all the grit and grim that these characters are able to pull themselves up from and push themselves to the most delightful and surprising endings in a film this year.... how can slumdog not win?

yes... there is some backlash. there always is when a film becomes this big so fast. there will be naysayers. but fuck 'em all. slumdog millionaire is the best film of the year and deserves to take home the big prize.

it has won near unanimous praise and continues to rack up every prize in its path... including the PGA (producer's guild).

pair the PGA and DGA win...and slumdog seems the final lock of the evening.

final answer...?

will win: slumdog millionaire
should win: slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

david fincher, the curious case of benjamin button
ron howard, frost/nixon
gus van sant, milk
stephen daldry, the reader
danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

this category is pretty open and shut so i'd like to take a moment and note a particular individual who was not nominated in this category. it will make my anonymous poster happy to know i think it was a great shame that christopher nolan was overlooked this year for directing the dark knight. a great shame.

i'd also like to see both daldry and fincher replaced here.... but these are the nominees we have and, therefore, these are the nominees we must analyze.

ummmm.... ya know? who are we kidding.....?

danny boyle will win sunday night for his direction of slumdog millionaire. i'm just not sure i have the energy tonight to really go on and on when the outcome is so obvious.

i should also point out.... i think boyle should win. his direction is fresh and innovative... it's fantastical and yet rooted in a deep reality. it's just a fabulously constructed film.

i'd put gus van sant and then ron howard next.... as i said, i'd leave the other two off the list.

and it's hard to argue any other director when i truly feel boyle deserves it.

i can't even pretend to think that someone else might even possibly upset boyle. it's not gonna happen...

boyle won the DGA (that's the director's guild) and i believe there's about an above 80% chance that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar. that may actually be the percentage for the picture to go on to win after the director wins.... in all honesty, i'd think it was over 90% likely that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar.

and i feel good about it all.... what more is there to say?

will win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire
should win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

anne hathaway, rachel getting married
angelina jolie, changeling
melissa leo, frozen river
meryl streep, doubt
kate winslet, the reader

interesting category this year... mostly for the absence of the person most deserving of the award: sally hawkins for happy-go-lucky. it's hard to pick a winner when the one person that should win didn't even make the cut.

and far as i'm concerned....she deserves it head and shoulders over the rest.

but i am faced with these five. i agree with three of the nominations. i have problems with the other two... on one level, it's just insulting that they made the cut over hawkins. on the other level, the ultimate winner in this category will be undeserving for this role but wholly deserving for her other role this year.

but let's start with who will not be winning. always a good way to start....

and angelina, i'm sorry - but your nomination hurts me the most. she is unremarkable in a film that is equally forgettable. i'm not sure what happened with clint eastwood this year.... i've often claimed him to be one of the best directors working in films these days... but i found both changeling and gran torino lacking. no, i think mr. and mrs. brangelina will both go home empty-handed this year.

but wasn't nominating them both just adorable.....?

anne hathaway, i thought, was very good in rachel getting married. it was nice seeing her push her acting skills. my friend jason thinks she was a bit over her head... but i thought she did a very nice job so i have no problem with the nomination (accept for the fact that sally hawkins wasn't nominated). but annie will not win this year.... but keep an eye on her.

that leaves three individuals. all three of whom could potentially win.

the least likely of the three is melissa leo. but her performance in frozen river is easily the best performance in this group of five. she gives a hard-nosed and steely performance and felt the most completely inhabited of her role. she is heartbreaking and funny and infuriating...... it is a big performance in a small film and i am so happy she was remembered. i think she has the greatest outside chance of the three at winning....

i read some grumbling on awardsdaily.com today that they see a victory for leo as a real possibility. perhaps if the other two split the votes? it would thrill me.... you know, since sally hawkins wasn't nominated... but i don't really see it.

the next most likely winner is meryl streep. jesus.... what can you say about meryl that hasn't already been said? i think my friend jason put it the best: "streep haters be damned, she played to the back row because this character plays to the back row."

i think it's really a solid performance..... i'm not sure why some people panned her? she is incredible. and i'd rank her second in this group of five.

so what does meryl have going for her? well, beyond the strong performance, this is her 15th nomination. the last time she won was for sophie's choice back in 1982. that's a 26 year and 10 nomination losing streak she's on. and let's be honest... if ANYONE deserves a third oscar, it's the great meryl streep. and the academy voters may decide, yes, it's time to honor her again.

but then there's ms. winslet. kate winslet is easily one of the greatest younger actors working in movies. and this is her 6th nomination. that means this talent has gone home empty-handed five times.

it's really a crime.

the problem i have here is.... she's simply nominated for the wrong film. her performance in the reader is good.... she's good in everything... but she is far superior in revolutionary road. if she were nominated for road, i'd have her at the top of my list (behind sally hawkins, of course).

but in the reader.... she uses the wrong accent... it's easily argued a supporting role.... but here she is. and she's due an oscar. and i do think she'll win the oscar.... i just wish she were winning it for revolutionary road. she is superb in revolutionary road. gut-wrenchingly good. and if she does win, it may be because of that performance just as much as the one she is nominated for (which, by the way, she's never lost when nominated for the reader, no matter what category).

so i predict ms. winslet will finally win her oscar sunday night.... and i will have quibbles over the role and the lack of sally hawkins and that ms. leo is the most qualified in this grouping..... but i will be happy for her. and all my bad feelings will quickly dissolve.

but i'm allowed to bitch tonight.

will win: kate winslet, the reader
should win: melissa leo, frozen river (but really: sally hawkins, happy-go-lucky)

e.

p.s. in case you can't tell.... i put the academy's inability to nominate sally hawkins (who won every critic's award) as the most shameful black eye since judy davis lost to marisa tomei.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

the nominees for best actor are:

richard jenkins, the visitor
frank langella, frost/nixon
sean penn, milk
brad pitt, the curious case of benjamin button
mickey rourke, the wrestler

here is a category where the academy got it just about right.... i could quibble with probably one nomination here.... but even mr. pitt, it can be argued, deserves a nod. there may be a more deserving nominee out there... but it's not a horrible nod.

unfortunately for most everyone in this category, it's a two man horse race.

let's start with who will not win and we'll go from the least likely to the most likely.

richard jenkins, bless 'em... he was probably lucky to be remembered and even nominated. don't get me wrong, i was thrilled when he was nominated. i've been a long-time fan of jenkins... even before his brilliant turn as the paternal fisher on six feet under. and i think he gives a touching and understated performance in the visitor. but let's be honest... he doesn't stand a chance.

hmmm... the next two are probably interchangeable. but i'll go with brad pitt next. brad pitt is possibly the least deserving in this category.... however, he should get points for ably carrying that mammoth film... once again (like henson in supporting actress), it's a role tailor-made for the oscars and they ate it up. believe it or not... pitt does stand a chance at winning. once again, if they're looking for a way to reward benjamin button, why not honor the man who makes his way through the entire story and must carry so much bullshit on his back to even make the film somewhat watchable? but no.... mr. jolie will not win.

frank langella is possibly my second favorite performances in this category. i mean, he makes richard nixon fucking sympathetic. now THAT'S acting, my friends.... and it's the type of role i, personally, eat up. literate, historical.... demanding. and who ever knew langella's eyes were so expressive....? it's a marvelous performance and, at one time, i thought he was the actor to beat. long-admired, long-overlooked..... it's a prestige film and a historical one at that.... very popular with the academy.

but then there came two other performances. one, i think deserves to win. the other, as of this writing, i think will probably win. but this is the race that i think is most up in the air for the entire oscar evening.... and it comes down to penn v. rourke.

sean penn gives what i believe is the strongest performance in this category. in fact, i think it's one of the best performances of the year. his harvey milk is charming and engrossing and inspiring... and his performance is nothing short of miraculous. he inhabits this character, as he does all his characters.

roger ebert said it best when he said penn creates his characters from the inside out... he is possibly the greatest actor currently working in films. and his win would be a highlight of the evening for me. but he must contend with rourke.

mickey rourke has shot to the top of the charts with his role in the wrestler. once again, personally, i was underwhelmed with the movie. it's possible i was simply turned off by the amount of wrestling. i thought it would take a backseat to the personal stories told... but it's front and center and often a bit more graphic than i would have liked (and no, i don't mind graphic films. i'm a scorsese fanatic, for chrissakes!).

rourke does give a very powerful and moving performance. but i think the strength of his performance and, in fact, the driving force behind his current momentum to win, is coupled much too strongly with his personal story. it is the story of mickey rourke that i believe will win him the oscar more than his performance.

the oscars love a good story.... and rourke's personal life perfectly mirrors the role he presents on film. and it all makes for a very compelling argument to award him the gold.

i think it can go either way... if you ask me in two hours who i think will win, i'll say penn. but if you ask me tomorrow afternoon, i'll be back on rourke.

and they've split the critics awards pretty evenly. penn has won the broadcast film critics, the chicago film critics, the LA film critics, the ny film critics and the SAG. his winning the SAG actually makes me think he may take home the oscar. afterall, it's the same people who vote for the oscars.

rourke has won the BAFTA, the golden globe, london critics circle, chicago, kansas, toronto and san diego.

but they've also both tied in awards presented by the boston society of film critics and the san francisco film critics.

so who will win? will penn's harsh words over the years concerning the academy and the awards season in general hurt his chances? will the fact that he's already won for mystic river hurt his chances?

will rourke's bizarre behavior and momentary flirtation with actual "professional" wrestling hurt his chances?

sadly, we won't know until sunday night.... but for now:

will win: mickey rourke, the wrestler (with penn an easy upset)
should win: sean penn, milk

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

and the nominees for best supporting actress are:

amy adams, doubt
penélope cruz, vicky cristina barcelona
viola davis, doubt
taraji p. henson, the curious case of benjamin button
marisa tomei, the wrestler

tonight we arrive at my favorite category... best supporting actress. i'm not sure why i have a special affinity for this category but i just love it. maybe because you get a nice, diverse group of actors? maybe because you find the best character actresses in this category? maybe because they love giving the award to woody allen actresses?

but we'll get to ms. cruz later.....

first i'd like to start with what i perceive as one of the worst nominations of the night: taraji p. henson. my only thought is there remains some residual guilt on the part of the academy for not nominating her for the superior performance she gave in hustle and flow. but whatever it is... i knew two things as i watched benjamin button:

1. this entire film and this particular role was created to woo the oscars.
2. the academy would probably be duped by both.

and they were.... the entire movie is overblown and over-lauded. but here we are....

luckily, i don't think ms. henson has a chance at winning the award (unless the academy is looking for a way to reward benjamin button because it will not win any major award and has so many nominations). i would also like to point out that she has not won a single, major award (critics or otherwise) except the austin film critics. exactly.

so let's look at the other contenders....all of whom, conceivably, have a shot.

we have the prior nominee: amy adams, nominated before as best supporting actress for junebug. ms. adams will one day win an oscar, i believe that. but she is greatly overshadowed here by the other three actors nominated for doubt. i'm afraid she'll have to wait a bit longer.

we have the previous winner: marisa tomei who won in the same category for my cousin vinny. OVER, i might add, a much more deserving judy davis for woody allen's husbands and wives.

a side note: tomei's win over davis continues to be the thorn in my academy's side. tomei is marvelous in vinny, yes... but davis dominated that year and should have easily won. one of the biggest mistakes, in my opinion, in academy history.

tomei was also recently nominated again for in the bedroom. i honestly go back and forth and whether or not i feel she deserves this nomination. she is very good in the movie, but i don't feel the same groundswell for her as i do mickey rourke for that film.

no...this year i see the ranks of the woody allen supporting actresses taking their revenge.

but more on ms. cruz in a minute.....

we also have the first timer: yes, henson is also a first time nominee.... but viola davis quietly and intensely took hold of her first nomination. there was no need to showboat and overact.... instead, her performance is all about holding back.... every struggle her characters endures must take place within.... and davis allows you to see it all without ever letting you see inside.

davis deserves to win this category. she takes on the greatest living screen actress and steals the scene without chewing the scenery. she is easily, the greatest performance in doubt.

and much will be said for her lack of screen time. most estimates have her screen time around 8 minutes.... just over 10 when you include a scene that contains no dialogue for the actress. and her lack of screen time is the biggest hurdle she has to overcome in order to take home the gold.

but there is precedence: judi dench won best supporting actress for shakespeare in love with a mere 8 minutes of total screen time in a much longer film. and her performance was spread out over four scenes.... davis must accomplish it all in one remarkable scene.

beatrice straight won a supporting actress oscar for her 6 minutes in network. they are six amazing minutes.... but again: only six minutes.

so will davis win? sadly, probably not..... i'm not sure she can escape the naysayers who simply say there wasn't enough time.

so the oscar will go to the second most deserving nominee in the category, the woody allen supporting actress. i categorize penélope cruz as a woody allen supporting actress because she comes from a long line of supporting actresses nominated for woody allen roles.

there's the aforementioned judy davis. dianne weist has been nominated twice, and won twice, for supporting roles in hannah and her sisters and bullets over broadway. maureen stapleton received a nod for interiors. mira sorvino turned her nomination into an oscar win for mighty aphrodite. samantha morton in sweet and lowdown. and mariel hemingway in manhattan.

yes, cruz joins a long list of actresses to be recognized in the supporting ranks via an allen film.

and cruz gives the academy voters everything they like... beauty, wit, a range of emotions with lovely dramatic scenes.... and there is a beautiful mixture of fire and insanity behind cruz's eyes throughout her performance.

i basically see the race between davis and cruz. it's difficult to gauge based on prior awards due to kate winslet's oft inclusion (and win) in this category for the reader.

but cruz has raked in an impressive list of wins including: the LA film critics, national board of review, ny film critics, boston society of film critics and the BAFTA.

ms. davis has only won a breakthrough award via the national board of review. cruz topped here in the actual supporting category.

this year, the academy keeps it's current european streak alive:

will win: penélope cruz, vicky cristina barcelona
should win: viola davis, doubt

e.