Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

black swan
the fighter
inception
the kids are all right
the king's speech
127 hours
the social network
toy story 3
true grit
winter's bone

well, tonight's the big night. gay christmas. the 83rd annual academy awards. or as they call it in billy crystal's house: passover.

it's a busy day for me so i tend to short-shrift best picture a bit. but there are some easy disqualifications to make.

you cannot take a best picture nomination seriously if they do not have a corresponding best director nod. so.... say bye-bye to inception, the kids are all right, 127 hours, toy story 3 and winter's bone. without a director... it's just not gonna happen.

i think the 10 nominees is idiocy.... but we have them. the only upside is that brilliant films like winter's bone can snag a nomination when they might normally be too small for the academy to remember.

so we're left with five serious nominees. of those, only the social network and the king's speech have a chance.

the social network has won every. single. critic's. award. you. can. win.

it is the best film of the year. as i said last night.... it's fresh, it's solid... it's of our time. it's built on one of the best screenplays we've had in years. (by the way, aaron sorkin will win best adapted screenplay for network. just watch the first 8 minutes of the film... pure word masturbation. it's genius.)

but the king's speech has won the one award (well, two) that might matter the most. the big one is the producers guild of america award. the PGA winner has most likely always gone on to win best picture at the oscars. (in fact, they've matched up 75% of the time over the years.)

hooper also won the director's guild and, as previously discussed, that generally means he'll go on to win the best director oscar. the winner of the best director oscar almost always takes home the gold for best picture, as well.

they do differ from time to time. but in the past 30 years, the picture/director split has only occurred SIX times. the last time was 2005 when crash undeservedly won best picture but ang lee won director for brokeback mountain.

i'm reading a lot of chatter about a picture/director split this year. it's not normally predicted but the theory appears to have a following this year.

i adore the king's speech. i think it's a nearly perfect film. i will be thrilled if it wins best picture. but i simply see the social network as the better film.

but.... i don't see it taking home both director and picture.

so.... a split. (just to make things even more interesting.)

will win: the king's speech
should win: the social network

and i leave you now with my beloved liza minnelli singing my favorite oscar song: "oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!"

happy oscars!

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

happy oscar day, my lovelies! let's get right to the big one...

the nominees for best picture are:

--avatar
--the blind side
--district 9
--an education
--the hurt locker
--inglourious basterds
--precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
--a serious man
--up
--up in the air

okay.... i'm taking time out from cooking for my big oscar to-do. so i gotta make this short and sweet, my darling readers. it's not that i don't love you... it's just there's spinach & artichoke dip and stuffed mushroom caps to make.

let's begin my knocking out the obvious (and stating the obvious). ten best picture nominees is stupid. take the five without a corresponding director nod out and you have your five REAL best picture nominees left.

so take away up, a serious man, an education, district 9 and the blind side. no directors. no way they're gonna win.

(interesting side note: up is only the second animated film to be nominated for best picture. the first? nope... not snow white & the seven dwarfs. it was 1989's beauty and the beast.)

so let's look at the five remaining best picture nominees.

precious. out. sorry...just not gonna win.

up in the air... i've gone on and on about the loss of momentum for this film. at one time, i really thought it was the winner. and i hated that idea. not that it's a bad film... it's just not best picture material.

inglourious basterds? i think tarantino is still a bit too outside the box for academy voters. he may be a scorsese.... a couple of decades worth of nominations before he and his picture win.

that leaves us with the horse race (kinda).

avatar vs. the hurt locker.

the hurt locker should win... it's the superior film. but an odd new oscar voting system may give avatar a leg up. if a picture does not win over 50% of the first ballot... then the academy moves on to people's second choice. and so on and so on until somebody has over 50%.

it's idiotic. i think i'll change next year.

it gives avatar a chance.

but i still think the hurt locker will take home the big prize tonight. it's already won a string of awards including the biggie: the producers guild for best picture.

keeping it short and sweet, my lovelies.

will win: the hurt locker
should win: the hurt locker

e.

p.s. oscar! everybody loves ya, oscar! everybody wants to get ya, grab ya, hug ya... hold you tight!

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

the curious case of benjamin button
frost/nixon
milk
the reader
slumdog millionaire

once again for the benefit of my anonymous poster... it should be said that the dark knight is a far superior film to at least two of these nominees, if not more.

i am not willing to say that milk or frost/nixon do not belong on this list. they are easily in my top five.

milk for it's heartbreaking and inspirational storytelling of a movement that is still alive today but is beholden to a great man. van sant and penn make a moving biopic here that is just outside my top spot.

frost/nixon for it's compelling cat and mouse intellectual mindfuck between a fallen president and a man desperate to prove himself. in fact, aren't they both attempting redemption here? the tension builds beautifully until everything unwraps itself in the climatic interview.

i understand the technical and visual wonders that garnered benjamin button a nomination. but it does not belong in the top five.

the reader most certainly does not belong in the top five.

i would replace either of these with the dark knight, revolutionary road or WALL-E.

but one film i most definitely would not replace is slumdog millionaire. this is one of the most thrilling films i've seen in such a long time. it's not thrilling in the way an action film is thrilling...but it will leave you breathless. and from all the grit and grim that these characters are able to pull themselves up from and push themselves to the most delightful and surprising endings in a film this year.... how can slumdog not win?

yes... there is some backlash. there always is when a film becomes this big so fast. there will be naysayers. but fuck 'em all. slumdog millionaire is the best film of the year and deserves to take home the big prize.

it has won near unanimous praise and continues to rack up every prize in its path... including the PGA (producer's guild).

pair the PGA and DGA win...and slumdog seems the final lock of the evening.

final answer...?

will win: slumdog millionaire
should win: slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

the nominees for best picture are:

atonement
-juno
-michael clayton
-no country for old men
-there will be blood

2008 may be one of those odd years when the best picture of the year actually wins best picture.

going into the oscars i really see this as a two category race: there will be blood and no country for old men.

juno is a great film.... one of the best of the year. but the academy rarely ever gives best picture to a comedy. you could count shakespeare in love or even forrest gump as comedies... but the last true comedy to win in the vein of juno would be annie hall in 1977. it simply doesn't happen.

atonement really shouldn't even be nominated in this category... in my humble opinion. it's a good film.... but a bit overrated. i'd rather have seen the diving bell and the butterfly nominated. or once.

the same with michael clayton.... i would have replaced either of the other two films for this one... not that it's not a good film. it's just not best picture material. and i don't see it winning tonight. the only thing this film really has going for it is it's the one true hollywood film. so if hollywood wants to reward hollywood.....

but no...best picture will come down to no country for old men and there will be blood.

there will be blood is the type of epic the academy loves... sweeping, absorbing. gut-wrenching to watch.

but no country for old men... as i've said before... is a perfect film. the coen brothers have created such a masterpiece with this film.... and if they go on to win best director... there's rarely a split.

in fact....for years the best picture category could be predicted thus: so and so won the director's guild... the director's guild winner goes on to win the academy award for best director... whoever wins best director...their picture always follows with the win for best picture.

this is how it used to work... now there have been more and more best picture/director splits lately... but not this year. not only did the coen brothers win the DGA, but the film also won the WGA and the PGA.

no country for old men should and will win best picture tomorrow night... and the world will be set right again.

now if we could only elect hillary president in november.

will win: no country for old men
should win: no country for old men

e.