Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

the nominees for best actress are:

anne hathaway, rachel getting married
angelina jolie, changeling
melissa leo, frozen river
meryl streep, doubt
kate winslet, the reader

interesting category this year... mostly for the absence of the person most deserving of the award: sally hawkins for happy-go-lucky. it's hard to pick a winner when the one person that should win didn't even make the cut.

and far as i'm concerned....she deserves it head and shoulders over the rest.

but i am faced with these five. i agree with three of the nominations. i have problems with the other two... on one level, it's just insulting that they made the cut over hawkins. on the other level, the ultimate winner in this category will be undeserving for this role but wholly deserving for her other role this year.

but let's start with who will not be winning. always a good way to start....

and angelina, i'm sorry - but your nomination hurts me the most. she is unremarkable in a film that is equally forgettable. i'm not sure what happened with clint eastwood this year.... i've often claimed him to be one of the best directors working in films these days... but i found both changeling and gran torino lacking. no, i think mr. and mrs. brangelina will both go home empty-handed this year.

but wasn't nominating them both just adorable.....?

anne hathaway, i thought, was very good in rachel getting married. it was nice seeing her push her acting skills. my friend jason thinks she was a bit over her head... but i thought she did a very nice job so i have no problem with the nomination (accept for the fact that sally hawkins wasn't nominated). but annie will not win this year.... but keep an eye on her.

that leaves three individuals. all three of whom could potentially win.

the least likely of the three is melissa leo. but her performance in frozen river is easily the best performance in this group of five. she gives a hard-nosed and steely performance and felt the most completely inhabited of her role. she is heartbreaking and funny and infuriating...... it is a big performance in a small film and i am so happy she was remembered. i think she has the greatest outside chance of the three at winning....

i read some grumbling on awardsdaily.com today that they see a victory for leo as a real possibility. perhaps if the other two split the votes? it would thrill me.... you know, since sally hawkins wasn't nominated... but i don't really see it.

the next most likely winner is meryl streep. jesus.... what can you say about meryl that hasn't already been said? i think my friend jason put it the best: "streep haters be damned, she played to the back row because this character plays to the back row."

i think it's really a solid performance..... i'm not sure why some people panned her? she is incredible. and i'd rank her second in this group of five.

so what does meryl have going for her? well, beyond the strong performance, this is her 15th nomination. the last time she won was for sophie's choice back in 1982. that's a 26 year and 10 nomination losing streak she's on. and let's be honest... if ANYONE deserves a third oscar, it's the great meryl streep. and the academy voters may decide, yes, it's time to honor her again.

but then there's ms. winslet. kate winslet is easily one of the greatest younger actors working in movies. and this is her 6th nomination. that means this talent has gone home empty-handed five times.

it's really a crime.

the problem i have here is.... she's simply nominated for the wrong film. her performance in the reader is good.... she's good in everything... but she is far superior in revolutionary road. if she were nominated for road, i'd have her at the top of my list (behind sally hawkins, of course).

but in the reader.... she uses the wrong accent... it's easily argued a supporting role.... but here she is. and she's due an oscar. and i do think she'll win the oscar.... i just wish she were winning it for revolutionary road. she is superb in revolutionary road. gut-wrenchingly good. and if she does win, it may be because of that performance just as much as the one she is nominated for (which, by the way, she's never lost when nominated for the reader, no matter what category).

so i predict ms. winslet will finally win her oscar sunday night.... and i will have quibbles over the role and the lack of sally hawkins and that ms. leo is the most qualified in this grouping..... but i will be happy for her. and all my bad feelings will quickly dissolve.

but i'm allowed to bitch tonight.

will win: kate winslet, the reader
should win: melissa leo, frozen river (but really: sally hawkins, happy-go-lucky)

e.

p.s. in case you can't tell.... i put the academy's inability to nominate sally hawkins (who won every critic's award) as the most shameful black eye since judy davis lost to marisa tomei.