Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

the nominees for best actor are:

richard jenkins, the visitor
frank langella, frost/nixon
sean penn, milk
brad pitt, the curious case of benjamin button
mickey rourke, the wrestler

here is a category where the academy got it just about right.... i could quibble with probably one nomination here.... but even mr. pitt, it can be argued, deserves a nod. there may be a more deserving nominee out there... but it's not a horrible nod.

unfortunately for most everyone in this category, it's a two man horse race.

let's start with who will not win and we'll go from the least likely to the most likely.

richard jenkins, bless 'em... he was probably lucky to be remembered and even nominated. don't get me wrong, i was thrilled when he was nominated. i've been a long-time fan of jenkins... even before his brilliant turn as the paternal fisher on six feet under. and i think he gives a touching and understated performance in the visitor. but let's be honest... he doesn't stand a chance.

hmmm... the next two are probably interchangeable. but i'll go with brad pitt next. brad pitt is possibly the least deserving in this category.... however, he should get points for ably carrying that mammoth film... once again (like henson in supporting actress), it's a role tailor-made for the oscars and they ate it up. believe it or not... pitt does stand a chance at winning. once again, if they're looking for a way to reward benjamin button, why not honor the man who makes his way through the entire story and must carry so much bullshit on his back to even make the film somewhat watchable? but no.... mr. jolie will not win.

frank langella is possibly my second favorite performances in this category. i mean, he makes richard nixon fucking sympathetic. now THAT'S acting, my friends.... and it's the type of role i, personally, eat up. literate, historical.... demanding. and who ever knew langella's eyes were so expressive....? it's a marvelous performance and, at one time, i thought he was the actor to beat. long-admired, long-overlooked..... it's a prestige film and a historical one at that.... very popular with the academy.

but then there came two other performances. one, i think deserves to win. the other, as of this writing, i think will probably win. but this is the race that i think is most up in the air for the entire oscar evening.... and it comes down to penn v. rourke.

sean penn gives what i believe is the strongest performance in this category. in fact, i think it's one of the best performances of the year. his harvey milk is charming and engrossing and inspiring... and his performance is nothing short of miraculous. he inhabits this character, as he does all his characters.

roger ebert said it best when he said penn creates his characters from the inside out... he is possibly the greatest actor currently working in films. and his win would be a highlight of the evening for me. but he must contend with rourke.

mickey rourke has shot to the top of the charts with his role in the wrestler. once again, personally, i was underwhelmed with the movie. it's possible i was simply turned off by the amount of wrestling. i thought it would take a backseat to the personal stories told... but it's front and center and often a bit more graphic than i would have liked (and no, i don't mind graphic films. i'm a scorsese fanatic, for chrissakes!).

rourke does give a very powerful and moving performance. but i think the strength of his performance and, in fact, the driving force behind his current momentum to win, is coupled much too strongly with his personal story. it is the story of mickey rourke that i believe will win him the oscar more than his performance.

the oscars love a good story.... and rourke's personal life perfectly mirrors the role he presents on film. and it all makes for a very compelling argument to award him the gold.

i think it can go either way... if you ask me in two hours who i think will win, i'll say penn. but if you ask me tomorrow afternoon, i'll be back on rourke.

and they've split the critics awards pretty evenly. penn has won the broadcast film critics, the chicago film critics, the LA film critics, the ny film critics and the SAG. his winning the SAG actually makes me think he may take home the oscar. afterall, it's the same people who vote for the oscars.

rourke has won the BAFTA, the golden globe, london critics circle, chicago, kansas, toronto and san diego.

but they've also both tied in awards presented by the boston society of film critics and the san francisco film critics.

so who will win? will penn's harsh words over the years concerning the academy and the awards season in general hurt his chances? will the fact that he's already won for mystic river hurt his chances?

will rourke's bizarre behavior and momentary flirtation with actual "professional" wrestling hurt his chances?

sadly, we won't know until sunday night.... but for now:

will win: mickey rourke, the wrestler (with penn an easy upset)
should win: sean penn, milk

e.