Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

darren aronofsky, black swan
david o. russell, the fighter
tom hooper, the king's speech
david fincher, the social network
joel & ethan coen, true grit

okay, kiddies... it's getting late and i still have a shitload to accomplish this evening in pre-prep for tomorrow.

so let's just cut to the chase, shall we? (get it? "cut"? director...? nevermind.)

so the coen brothers just recently won for no country for old men. (great film. seriously... check it out.) too soon for them to win again. as awesome as true grit is. (and you'll probably never hear me say this about any other film: better than the original.)

darren aronofsky remains too out there, i think, to win. plus.... it's his first nomination. david o. russell stunned a lot of oscar watchers with his nomination. also... first one. won't win.

this is really a two way race: fincher v. hooper.

now. this is fincher's second nomination for best director. he was last nominated for the highly overrated the curious case of benjamin button.

this is hooper's first nomination.

so i seem to want to discount first-time nominees, right? wrong! i mean... it happens. especially if you were an actor first. (see redford, costner, eastwood, gibson.)

BUT. and this is a HUGE "but." hooper won the director's guild award for the king's speech. the DGA, people.

in the 63 years of the director's guild, the winner has NOT gone on to win the oscar only.....SIX time. six, people.

now, this has happened twice since 2000. the first time in 2000 when ang lee won the DGA for crouching tiger, hidden dragon but lost the oscar to steven soderbergh for traffic. and the last time in 2002 when rob marshall won the DGA for chicago but lost the gold to roman polanski on oscar night for his direction of the pianist.

so all indications would lead one to think hooper has the oscar in the bag, yes?

well..... david fincher has won every single critics' award leading up to the DGA for his superb direction of the social network. he won the golden globe. he even won the BAFTA (the british equivalent of the academy award...) over brit, hooper.

i don't really know what to say? both films are exceptional. both directors are worthy. i.... well, i lean towards the social network and fincher. i find the direction fresh and inventive. it feels very much of our time. and... it's flawless.

so... while the safe money is on hooper, i'm going out on a limb here, people. "no guts, no glory," as the man says. i'm predicting fincher to take home the oscar. yes.... a split from the DGA and, perhaps, a split from the ultimate winner of best picture.

but that's tomorrow.

will win: david fincher, the social network
should win: david fincher, the social network

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

james cameron, avatar
kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
quentin tarantino, inglourious basterds
lee daniels, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
jason reitman, up in the air

okay... i don't want to take up a lot of your time here. and i can't even be sly because once i begin using pronouns to dance around my prediction, you'll know...

so let's just say that kathryn bigelow has two... no three.... BIG things going for her this year: 1) she's won the director's guild award (DGA). 2) she'll make history as the first woman to ever win best director and the academy loves to make history. and 3) she deserves to win!

lee daniels is out. let's get that out of the way. yes, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire is very good. but he won't win. a black man can be president... but in this category, a woman can win first.

tarantino needs to win an oscar and will soon.... but he won't here. he is still glorified more for his writing than his directing. but he's superb at both.

jason reitman appeared primed to win for up in the air. he was just nominated recently for juno and it looked as if all momentum was pushing his film to multiple wins... including best picture.

that momentum has flat-lined.

really.... the race is between james cameron and his ex-wife, bigelow. cameron won the oscar for best director for the last feature film he directed: 1997's titanic.

he could win for avatar. but i see everything pushing bigelow into the gold on sunday night.

bigelow becomes only the fourth woman to be nominated for best director..... in over 80 years of best director nominations! sofia coppola was nominated for 2003's lost in translation. italian director lina wertmüller was nominated in 1976 for seven beauties. and new zealand's jane campion was nominated for the piano in 1993.

as i mentioned... the academy loves to make history. and finally crowning a woman as best director would be a HUGE statement.

bigelow also won the DGA. since the DGA was first given out in 1948, only SIX TIMES has the DGA winner differed from the eventual best director oscar winner.

but beyond all that... bigelow deserves to win. the hurt locker is a brilliant study of the tension inherent in a war zone. and bigelow shows an immense patience in telling her story.

most directors today would have a lot of quick edits and shaky, steady-cam shots zooming in and out and around the action. here... bigelow allows her camera to tell the story.... not pump up the story.

take the amazing scene where the soldiers come across snipers in the middle of the desert. there's a fire fight. lives are lost. then all grows quiet. a lesser director cuts away. or only stays briefly.... providing all answers immediately. but that's not war. and that's not what bigelow has shot.

here.... she leaves the camera on the soldiers. waiting. unsure. are the snipers still alive? are we safe? should we even move?

she has the patience to play the scene out. allow the tension to rise. let the soldiers suffer, wonder and fear.... just as we do.

she has made an action movie that is not in a rush to tell the story... but is interested in its characters and the slow revelations of the story. and, yes, of the danger.... and the tension...

it is confident and thrilling filmmaking. and bigelow deserves to take home the oscar as the first woman to ever win best director.

will win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
should win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

david fincher, the curious case of benjamin button
ron howard, frost/nixon
gus van sant, milk
stephen daldry, the reader
danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

this category is pretty open and shut so i'd like to take a moment and note a particular individual who was not nominated in this category. it will make my anonymous poster happy to know i think it was a great shame that christopher nolan was overlooked this year for directing the dark knight. a great shame.

i'd also like to see both daldry and fincher replaced here.... but these are the nominees we have and, therefore, these are the nominees we must analyze.

ummmm.... ya know? who are we kidding.....?

danny boyle will win sunday night for his direction of slumdog millionaire. i'm just not sure i have the energy tonight to really go on and on when the outcome is so obvious.

i should also point out.... i think boyle should win. his direction is fresh and innovative... it's fantastical and yet rooted in a deep reality. it's just a fabulously constructed film.

i'd put gus van sant and then ron howard next.... as i said, i'd leave the other two off the list.

and it's hard to argue any other director when i truly feel boyle deserves it.

i can't even pretend to think that someone else might even possibly upset boyle. it's not gonna happen...

boyle won the DGA (that's the director's guild) and i believe there's about an above 80% chance that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar. that may actually be the percentage for the picture to go on to win after the director wins.... in all honesty, i'd think it was over 90% likely that the winner of the DGA goes on to win the oscar.

and i feel good about it all.... what more is there to say?

will win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire
should win: danny boyle, slumdog millionaire

e.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

paul thomas anderson, there will be blood
joel coen & ethan coen, no country for old men
tony gilroy, michael clayton
jason reitman, juno
julian schnabel, the diving bell & the butterfly

what a delicious crop of best director nominees this year. fresh faces. innovative artists. filmmakers long overdue.

the best part of the best director category is that the nominees are nominated by other directors. this is why you'll often see nominees who's films are otherwise overlooked.

julian schnabel is a perfect example. the diving bell & the butterfly is the most visually stunning and beautifully crafted film this year. this is not a surprise from a person who first made his name as an artist on the new york art scene (gary oldman played schnabel in the film he previously directed: basquiat).

but schnabel's movie has otherwise been unnoticed by the academy. the directors nominating their own helps and it could drive him towards a surprise win sunday night.

but once the nominees are announced, the entire academy then votes on the category and i would bet that most have not seen this brilliant piece of film making.

on the opposite end... jason reitman directed the sleeper hit of the year when he created juno. but it's too soon for reitman even though he has given us back-to-back solid films (his previous film was thank you for smoking).

i don't feel any momentum for gilroy and michael clayton. yes, the film was released back in the summer and remembering the film for so much this long after it's release speaks highly for the film. but as wonderful as the film is, it's nothing special. nothing exciting compared to the other nominees.

despite my belief that schnabel could be a spoiler come sunday night... i feel the race is really between the coen brothers and paul thomas anderson.

anderson has been one of my favorite directors over the past several years. i'm crazy about magnolia and boogie nights and the way he can weave together all these interlocking stories is right up my alley.

but he departed from his usual fare and brought us there will be blood. if it didn't have his name on it...you may not even realize it was his film. bold and stark in it's depiction, the film is the type of epic the academy often loves. i've described the film as the drunken stepfather to giant.

but this is anderson's first nomination. directors are rarely rewarded for their first nomination anymore. look how long it took scorsese and speilberg to win... altman passed before he ever won an oscar. hitchcock never won....

but the coen brothers have been making some of the best and original cinema over the past couple of decades that movie-goers have seen.

no country for old men is a perfect film. and i can talk about this more later. but the coens crafted this masterpiece... and they have both been nominated for the film.

back in 1996, joel cohen was nominated alone for best director for the brilliant fargo. he lost...probably unfairly....to anthony minghella for the english patient.

fargo was a perfect film. to create another perfect film is an amazing accomplishment and i can't see the academy not rewarding the coen brothers this time around.

they also won the DGA (directors guild of america) and even though the academy has split with the DGA more frequently over the past few years... there was a time when the winner of the DGA always went on to win the academy.

that trend will continue again this year.... and deservedly so.

will win: joel & ethan coen, no country for old men
should win: joel & ethan coen, no country for old men

e.