Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

the nominees for best supporting actor are:

josh brolin, milk
robert downey jr., tropic thunder
philip seymour hoffman, doubt
heath ledger, the dark knight
michael shannon, revolutionary road

funny how similarities can run from year to year. last year's best supporting actor race also saw p.s. hoffman in the third slot....alphabetically. and just like last year, if i were to declare any category a lock this year.... i would bet on best supporting actor.

heath ledger is set to be the first actor to win a posthumous oscar since peter finch won for network back in 1976.

and there has been a lot of talk about whether a ledger win would be a deserving win or simply a way to honor a talent silenced too soon.

i can say without hesitation: heath ledger deserves to win this award. he easily turns in one of the best performances of the year.

his joker is so haunting... so engrossing.... so terrifying. and there is a soul and an understanding deep in those eyes that peer out from behind that deranged make-up. ledger created a villain to rival the cinema greats and silenced any critics.

but those who deserve to win don't always win.... this is true. but i do believe this year the oscars will once again get this category right.

just as last year was too soon for hoffman after his recent win for capote, so is it this year... not that it isn't a deserving a powerful performance.

michael shannon came out of nowhere to snag a nomination for revolutionary road... but despite the surprise, this is probably the second most deserving nomination in this category. and if he had just one or two more scenes... he would probably give ledger a run for his money. the movie lights afire when shannon is on screen and his scenes are the most devastating in an overwhelmingly devastating film.

josh brolin, however, is probably the second actor most likely to win this category. he has won several critics awards include the national board of review and the ny film critics. and his victory would also be for the superb year he had last year with no country for old men, american gangster and in the valley of elah but for which he was ultimately overlooked. he also garnered critical praise this year not just for milk but for his captivating work in w.

that leaves robert downey, jr. for tropic thunder. true, he is one of the three individuals in this category who have previous nominations (best actor, chaplin). and the academy often likes to reward individuals with prior nods. but they rarely give out the big prize to comedies... of course, this category is known for rewarding comedic performances, most notably kevin kline for a fish called wanda and, more recently, alan arkin for little miss sunshine.

but i don't see downey or anyone else winning here.

the night will belong to ledger... he has already won countless awards, including the screen actors guild, the golden globe, the BAFTA, the los angeles film critics, as well as the chicago and broadcast film critics.

depending on who else wins come sunday night... it may prove to be one of the most deserving moments of the evening. and depending on who accepts the award for him, it could also be one of the most moving.

will win: heath ledger, the dark knight
should win: heath ledger, the dark knight

e.