i honestly expected an announcement from obama this week on his vice presidential running mate. afterall... the olympics start on friday and go on for two weeks. you don't want to announce during the olympics... the coverage will be lost.
there was also a report from the prince of darkness himself, robert novak, that mccain was to announce while obama was in europe... to steal some of his thunder.
it appears none of these are to come true. unless obama surprises us in the next two days. again...the olympics are two weeks... then we immediately jump into the democratic national convention. we normally know the veep before then.
as a quick note: it's also been mentioned that mccain will announce his running mate immediately following the dem convention in order to steal any coverage or "bounce" obama should receive from his DNC coverage.
but who knows....? so let's talk about what we do know and who appears to be on the shortlists.
first the republicans. my prior standings stood thus:
1. crist2. romney
3. pawlenty
4. sanford
5. petraeus
i'm limiting my standings now to the top three. it's crunch time and we need to get serious.
my top three may remain the same...just jostled a bit.
i'm happy to see that all talk of bobby jindal of louisiana has been squashed. what an idiotic pick. and i just don't feel much excitement about sanford and i think petraeus will simply tie mccain too closely to the bush camp (as if he needs any help).
one name that i had at the top of my list at one time was ex-governor of pennsylvania and the first head of the department of homeland security, tom ridge. his name is being bounced around again and if he could help win pennsylvania it would be a huge boost the mccain camp. however, mccain's biggest weakness remains his inability to excite the conservative base. ridge is probably a more moderate republican than mccain (not that that's hard to do) and, worst of all, he's pro-choice. i just can't see mccain selecting him as his running mate.
governor crist of florida i still think is a strong choice. he's also recently become engaged in order to hush any possible grumblings of another closeted republican.
rob portman has also been talked about but he held such an important position in the bush administration, once again i just can't see mccain tying himself to an ex-bushie (unless, of course, they're constructing your racist advertising videos for you).
no... my money is on two names that seem to be the common consensus: pawlenty of minnesota and good ole flip-flop mitt.
mitt could help with michigan and for some odd reasons the true economic conservatives love him. but does mccain? i think it was pretty obvious from the primary that the two despised each other. i don't see mccain picking someone he hates.
there's also much talk of the midwest and the great lakes states really being the toss-up states this year... and pawlenty, the popular governor of an increasingly purple state may do the trick.
and he's conservative through and through. so my predictions?
republican running-mate:
1. pawlenty
2. romney
3. crist
now let's talk about the good party. my prior standing for the dem v.p.:
1. strickland
2. rendell
3. the virginians (warner, webb, kaine)
4. sebelius
5. mccaskell
well, i think i'm really having a change of heart on this one. i'm taking out mccaskell, an early favorite of mine. i still think ed rendell of pennyslvania is a great choice but i'm striking him too. two of the virginians, warner and webb, have removed themselves from the running (and i believe them).
strickland is still a great choice... governor of ohio, a must-win state. but i've heard no enthusiasm over him.
i still think sebelius is a nice bet... but again, only those who seem to think he'll pick a woman (and not hillary) seem to mention her. and as cokie roberts put it this past sunday... all obama needs to do is pick a boring, white guy.
tim kaine, the governor of virginia, seems to be everyone's best bet for obama. he's outside of washington and relatively new. so it's on message. but here's my big beef with kaine: he's pro-life.
now... for a campaign who constantly talks about the need to win over female voters and bring those hillary supporters over to their side... what better way to alienate women by picking a pro-life running mate? i think women have enough questions when it comes to obama. and his "present" votes in illinois on the big issues don't help quash any of that uneasiness.
so why stir more uncertainty with kaine? yes, he has stated he would uphold roe v. wade... but he's also very vocal about being "personally" pro-life. it makes me uneasy. and i feel too strong about a woman's right to choose to have any question mark hovering over my candidate.
no.... i'm putting my money back on evan bayh of indiana. i had taken him off because i felt obama needed a governor... thus kaine or sebelius, etc. however... i forgot that bayh was the governor of indiana before he became a senator from there.he's also great at staying on point... and he's the perfect, boring, white guy. he's not been steeped in washington long enough to fight against obama's talking points but he has executive experience and once again puts into play a midwest, great lake, purple state.
oh, one last point: there's been a lot of talk about joe biden, my man from delaware. personally, i still think he's a better bet for secretary of state. and i think his experience will bring into question obama's lack of experience too greatly (as one person pointed out: it's the same as the dukakis/bentson dilemma). people will ask if the roles should be reversed. also, biden wanted to join obama on his trip to the middle east but was not invited. were they concerned that biden's foreign policy bona fides would too greatly outshine obama's lack of experience?
and...again... i think obama needs a governor with executive experience and someone "outside" of washington. biden has been in d.c. for a long time.
so...without further ado:
democratic running-mate:
1. bayh
2. kaine
3. sebelius
and...because i refuse to give up the ghost just like everyone else... hillary remains the ultimate spoiler - but it just ain't gonna happen.
discuss.
e.
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