Veepstakes & Other Troubling Obama Trends

well, i would think the text messages should go out tomorrow... or first thing saturday at the latest.

afterall, obama is scheduled to appear with his vice presidential choice saturday evening in springfield, illinois. on the steps of the old capitol. where it all began well over a year ago.... (february 2007, to be precise.)

i'm just not sure it's the right choice.

actually.... senator joe biden is an excellent choice as a vice president. i still think he's better suited for secretary of state. i mean, v.p. will be such a waste for him.

but how does the choice pair up with obama? what does it bring to the table?

sadly... it appears to be the george bush/dick cheney model: if we're all on the plane and two people are in the cockpit... at least we know ONE of them knows how to fly the plane.

but does biden's four decades of experience bring into question obama's clear lack of experience? and does biden's extensive foreign policy experience (he chairs the foreign relations committee in the senate) highlight obama's lack of the same?

the good news.... biden will have no problem playing the attack dog and going after mccain... something obama seems uncomfortable doing. and biden's smart...

the senior senator from delaware doesn't quite go along with obama's narrative of turning the page and outside of washington.... but it's not pro-life tim kaine and it's not boring ole bayh.

of course... guess who's name has also popped back up in the news?

my hillary is back!
wow... it's amazing how much talk hillary is once again receiving around the vice presidency. and i truly think it's about as likely as notre dame going #1 this year.

but.......

a new NBC/WSJ poll shows that about 11% of hillary supporters still refuse to vote for obama. in fact... where obama only slightly leads mccain in the poll, hillary holds a confident lead over johnny boy... and she's not even running anymore!

that spells big problems for obama. and when we're looking at such slim margins between the two candidates... 11 points is huge!

so we return to the old question. is there still a need for "the dream ticket"? does obama need hillary to solidify the party and win in november?

i mean, the NBC/WSJ poll is no anomaly.

more bad news for obama
the most recent la times/bloomberg poll has obama topping mccain by a mere 2 points: 45% to 43% (with a +/-3). back in june....obama held a commanding lead over mccain: 49% to 37%.

that same poll shows obama's favorable rating down from 59% in june to 48% in august. mccain is holding steady at 47% in june and 46% now.

cnn's average of several recent national polls shows obama holding a slim 3 point lead over mccain, 46%-43%. obama was up by 8 points in mid-july according to that same "poll of polls."

in fact, the average on realclearpolitics.com only shows obama holding a 1.5% lead over mccain when you look at all national polls.

in general head-to-head match-ups... the dems beat the GOP by double digits when asked about the white house. so why is obama doing so poorly? and does a 40 year veteran of the senate from the great state of delaware really help?

remember...this will be the first time we've elected a seated senator to the presidency since JFK. so it's not like voters are generally impressed by senators. they want executive experience.... so a governor makes a better choice.

one bright note for senator obama
now... we may all be mashing our hands together and wondering why obama isn't hitting back harder at mccain. or why does his campaign not seem too worried about these polls.

well, they're probably looking at the electoral map.

remember, national polls ultimately mean jackshit. it's not about your individual vote (although... you really need to vote) but it's the electoral college. and right now, obama is sitting pretty.

realclearpolitics has a fabulous electoral map that shows a silver lining for obama:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

they currently predict 228 electoral votes for obama... 183 of those being solid.

they have mccain sitting with a mere 174 electoral votes... only 139 of those solid.

that leaves 136 toss-up votes with 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

ummmm.... that's pretty good math for obama.

so... to sum up: while i worry. things could be worse.

obama has chosen his veep and we should know soon.... final tally for me:

democratic veepstakes:

1. joe biden
2. evan bayh
3. tim kaine

and again... hillary could be the ultimate spoiler.

reminder:
the democratic national convention begins on monday and it should be one helluva event.

we've got both clintons speaking. we have clinton "whips" out there helping to cover any lingering hillary troublemakers on the convention floor.

and obama is speaking at a fucking football stadium to accept the nomination.

great theatre....

here's hoping for a nice bounce out of denver.

e.