What Tonight May Mean

well, today's the day. another make or break day for the political campaigns of both senators barack obama and hillary clinton. of course, i have no illusions... it's much more of a do or die day for hillary.

but why is today such a big deal?

well, today is the last big prize in the primary season. 187 pledged delegates (115 in north carolina and 72 in indiana) are up for grabs. and as chuck todd & co. point out this morning on firstread:

After today, there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and more disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) for the campaigns to fight over than there will be delegates earned in the remaining primaries (217). Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail.

but more importantly than the delegates taken away from today is the perception game.

today is the first primaries (not counting the guam caucuses... which, how crazy is that? a seven VOTE difference. crazy...) since the recent redust-up of the jeremiah wright story.

how has the story affected the white, working-class voters in both states? also...will obama's cross-party appeal be hampered in the open primary contest in indiana? will republicans come out and vote for him after the wright controversy?

and what if hillary wins both states? i think if hillary pulls an upset in north carolina... some obama superdelegates will start feeling some buyer's remorse.

electability once again becomes a factor. after all...an average of all recent polls on realclearpolitics shows hillary running much stronger against mccain. obama has just pulled ahead of mccain again in recent days but only by 1.6 points. hillary is running 3+ points ahead of mccain.

but more importantly... hillary has also cut down on obama's lead in national polls for the dem nomination. in some polls...she's ahead.

this shows a major shift in the "obamamentum." his campaign has simply lost its sparkle. it looks tired and irritated.

meanwhile...hillary seems to have come into her own... honing her populist rhetoric and once again enjoying the campaign.

as howard fineman pointed out last night... obama's top ten joke of not having slept since october rings true... and he's starting to show the fatigue. meanwhile... the clintons have been campaigning for 30 years and show no signs of flickering out.

i've said it before and her campaign and the media have picked up on it. hillary's a scrapper (she uses the term fighter)... and it's a good color on her.

people want a candidate that will fight for them and fight for the nomination.

brass tacks
realclearpolitics has obama leading hillary by 8 points in n.c. and hillary leading him by 5 in indiana (average of polls taken).

as far as predictions go... i like jay carney's prediction last night on race for the white house. i think both candidates will roll sevens.

obama will win n.c. by seven points and hillary will win indiana by 7 points.

the significance?

at one time obama was ahead by 20 points in north carolina. to cut that lead down to single digits is a perception win for hillary... but a win for obama.

obama also led in indiana at one point... it will also be the first state to boarder illinois that he doesn't win. again...perception.

if obama happens to win both... see a flood of supers come out for obama and consider the race over. he will clearly have weathered the wright storm and voters and delegates will feel comfortable with him as the nominee.

if hillary wins both... obama has a problem and we may see several supers move towards hillary. i think there may also be a bigger push to reconcile florida and michigan. there will be a perceived problem inherent with the obama campaign... and if they can get hillary ahead in at least the popular vote... supers can argue overturning the pledged delegate count.

supers will also start looking at states essential to a democratic victory in the fall: pennsylvania, ohio, florida.

once again, taking realclearpolitics averages, hillary easily trumps mccain in pennsylvania and ohio and runs nearly 2 points ahead in florida. but obama only beats mccain in pennsylvania...and even then it's only by 1.2 points. mccain handily defeats obama in the other two states, especially florida (9 points).

exit polls will be very important tonight... who voted and whom did they vote for? did either candidate make inroads into the other's base? did hillary capture any black, youth or affluent voters? did obama carry any working class whites or women?

it's nitty-gritty time, people. this is when the shit gets good.

SO happy hillary didn't drop out.

i may see you on the flip-side, my lovelies...

e.