More From the ABC/Post Poll

you guys know how much i love polls..... and the most recent abc/washington post poll has focused heavily on a potential head-to-head contest between two yankees fans: hillary vs. rudy.

but be patient, my fellow political junkies. let's break down the parties first. and remember, these are national numbers.

the dems

when asked if the democratic primary were held today, who would they vote for.... a MAJORITY (for the first time - a full majority) said they would vote for hillary: 53%. that is an amazing number. obama continues to fall at 20% and no-go edwards stands at 13%. this means hillary holds a commanding 33 point lead over barack. 40 points over johnny boy.

and i know the polls in iowa are much closer....but people do love to back a winner.

and they've also asked the all important question of electability. let's remember that dean was leading all the polls in 2004 until kerry suddenly seemed more electable.

so when asked which democrat has the best chance of being elected president, a whopping 57% said my girl hillary. (put that in your pipe and smoke it, doubters....) obama actually scores lower than edwards at 16% and 20%, respectively.

so why is obama having such a hard time.....? everyone predicted such a soaring ascent in the polls once he announced in springfield. in all honesty....when i noticed no major bump after people got to know him, i thought he was in trouble.

now...i'm not saying he's out of it. but he is limiting his chance for success with his "politics of hope." at some point.... he'll need to attack hillary. and by name.

but will that knock him down from his pedestal? and is he, ultimately, "too national public radio" for the general public (as chris matthews put it)?

the struggling GOP

in the republican field... giuliani holds the lead at 50%. mccain trails at 15%, thompson continues to prove himself as a non-starter with 13% and flip-flop trails behind them all at 6%.

interesting..... i think fred waited too long and his lackadaisical attitude is simply not exciting the GOP. and what does this do to my romney prediction......?

but let's get to the good stuff.

hillary clinton vs. rudy giuliani

earlier this year hillary topped rudy just barely at 49% to 47% in the abc/post poll. she has since widened that gap.....now beating giuliani 51% to 43%.

ooooh. i like that sensation.......

in fact, when asked respondents if they would be committed backers, 30% said they would "definitely" support clinton. only 17% said they would "definitely" support giuliani.

and the break down between parties is even more interesting. for hillary: 60% of dems, 21% of independents and 5% of republicans would definitely support. for rudy: 5% of dems (so they're even) but only 14% of indies and only a mere 39% of republicans.

that can't be good...... who will excite the GOP base? so sad.....

finally.... i want to talk about those voters who would NOT, under any circumstance, vote for hill or rudy. 44% said they would never vote for rudy. a touch worse than the 41% that would not vote for hill. those numbers show a majority, at least, would consider voting for either candidate. a good sign.

other interesting numbers

pulling quotes directly from the survey:

To most Americans, Bill Clinton looks good in retrospect: Sixty-six percent in this poll approve of the way he handled the job, while just 32 percent disapprove. And among those approvers [is that a word, dan balz?], seven in 10 favor his wife over Giuliani in their hypothetical match-up.

so nix the concerns about another clinton in the white house.

This doesn’t mean most people expect a Hillary Clinton presidency to be a replay of her husband’s; 67 percent say they’d expect her to take the presidency in a different direction, and the vast majority of them say that’s a good thing. (Notably, moreover, among the 27 percent who think a Hillary Clinton presidency would represent a resumption of her husband’s two terms, nearly half say that would be a good thing.)

again....a very encouraging sign.

one last bad sign for the struggling GOP
quoting the survey:

While Clinton if nominated has the most "definite" voters, at 30 percent, only two candidates are ruled out by majorities of Americans: Republicans Mitt Romney – 57 percent say they definitely would not support him for president – and Fred Thompson, ruled out by 54 percent.

again...does not bold well for my mitt prediction. to see the entire polling results, follow this link:

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/1046a308GeneralElection.pdf

meanwhile, go hillary!

e.