Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

the nominees for best director are:

james cameron, avatar
kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
quentin tarantino, inglourious basterds
lee daniels, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire
jason reitman, up in the air

okay... i don't want to take up a lot of your time here. and i can't even be sly because once i begin using pronouns to dance around my prediction, you'll know...

so let's just say that kathryn bigelow has two... no three.... BIG things going for her this year: 1) she's won the director's guild award (DGA). 2) she'll make history as the first woman to ever win best director and the academy loves to make history. and 3) she deserves to win!

lee daniels is out. let's get that out of the way. yes, precious: based on the novel 'push' by sapphire is very good. but he won't win. a black man can be president... but in this category, a woman can win first.

tarantino needs to win an oscar and will soon.... but he won't here. he is still glorified more for his writing than his directing. but he's superb at both.

jason reitman appeared primed to win for up in the air. he was just nominated recently for juno and it looked as if all momentum was pushing his film to multiple wins... including best picture.

that momentum has flat-lined.

really.... the race is between james cameron and his ex-wife, bigelow. cameron won the oscar for best director for the last feature film he directed: 1997's titanic.

he could win for avatar. but i see everything pushing bigelow into the gold on sunday night.

bigelow becomes only the fourth woman to be nominated for best director..... in over 80 years of best director nominations! sofia coppola was nominated for 2003's lost in translation. italian director lina wertmüller was nominated in 1976 for seven beauties. and new zealand's jane campion was nominated for the piano in 1993.

as i mentioned... the academy loves to make history. and finally crowning a woman as best director would be a HUGE statement.

bigelow also won the DGA. since the DGA was first given out in 1948, only SIX TIMES has the DGA winner differed from the eventual best director oscar winner.

but beyond all that... bigelow deserves to win. the hurt locker is a brilliant study of the tension inherent in a war zone. and bigelow shows an immense patience in telling her story.

most directors today would have a lot of quick edits and shaky, steady-cam shots zooming in and out and around the action. here... bigelow allows her camera to tell the story.... not pump up the story.

take the amazing scene where the soldiers come across snipers in the middle of the desert. there's a fire fight. lives are lost. then all grows quiet. a lesser director cuts away. or only stays briefly.... providing all answers immediately. but that's not war. and that's not what bigelow has shot.

here.... she leaves the camera on the soldiers. waiting. unsure. are the snipers still alive? are we safe? should we even move?

she has the patience to play the scene out. allow the tension to rise. let the soldiers suffer, wonder and fear.... just as we do.

she has made an action movie that is not in a rush to tell the story... but is interested in its characters and the slow revelations of the story. and, yes, of the danger.... and the tension...

it is confident and thrilling filmmaking. and bigelow deserves to take home the oscar as the first woman to ever win best director.

will win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker
should win: kathryn bigelow, the hurt locker

e.